2019 Around the NL Central Thread

beckdawg

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I could end up being wrong but i think MIL is gonna bomb expectations this season. That's not to say they will be bad but seeing Knebel go down illustrates something to me. If their bullpen isn't elite their pitching really starts to fall apart. ZIPS projects Corbin Burnes as the only guy with an ERA under 4 and his is 3.92. Chacin they have at 4.33. Davies at 4.26. Anderson at 4.47. Peralta at 4.01. Woodruff at 4.21. Nelson at 4.30.

By comparison here ZIPS has hendricks at 3.72, q at 3.67, Hamels at 3.71, lester at 3.97 and Darvish at 3.76. Also has monty at 4.05. In other words, the cubs 5th or 6th starter is comparable at least according to ZiPS projections as their #2 starter.

And the thing about bullpens is it's never just 1 guy. Knebel getting hurt means every other reliever now has more work on them. It was mostly Hader Knebel and Jeffress last year and 2 of those 3 are hurt one of which is gone for the year. Rest of their quality bullpen largely were starters moved to the pen such as Burnes. They could very easily end up in a situation where Hader is over worked by july and wears down even if they sign Kimbrel.

In a lot of ways it's interesting to me because it is sort of the reverse problem the cubs have. The cubs bullpen has a lot of depth but lacks guys at the top with Morrow hurt. The brewers had a nice 3 headed monster last year but they seem to be paying for that this year.
 

fatbeard

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I could end up being wrong but i think MIL is gonna bomb expectations this season. That's not to say they will be bad but seeing Knebel go down illustrates something to me. If their bullpen isn't elite their pitching really starts to fall apart. ZIPS projects Corbin Burnes as the only guy with an ERA under 4 and his is 3.92. Chacin they have at 4.33. Davies at 4.26. Anderson at 4.47. Peralta at 4.01. Woodruff at 4.21. Nelson at 4.30.

By comparison here ZIPS has hendricks at 3.72, q at 3.67, Hamels at 3.71, lester at 3.97 and Darvish at 3.76. Also has monty at 4.05. In other words, the cubs 5th or 6th starter is comparable at least according to ZiPS projections as their #2 starter.

And the thing about bullpens is it's never just 1 guy. Knebel getting hurt means every other reliever now has more work on them. It was mostly Hader Knebel and Jeffress last year and 2 of those 3 are hurt one of which is gone for the year. Rest of their quality bullpen largely were starters moved to the pen such as Burnes. They could very easily end up in a situation where Hader is over worked by july and wears down even if they sign Kimbrel.

In a lot of ways it's interesting to me because it is sort of the reverse problem the cubs have. The cubs bullpen has a lot of depth but lacks guys at the top with Morrow hurt. The brewers had a nice 3 headed monster last year but they seem to be paying for that this year.
Now do Christian Yelich's HR/FB ratio.
 

chibears55

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I imagine they'll be talking to Kimbrel's agent then.
I dont think so, at least not now
Kimbrel will still cost them a pick and $$$

Teams at this point will just wait til July so they won't owe the pick and $$$ towards tax

That where the cubs will probably start talking to him
 

CubsFaninMN

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I dont think so, at least not now
Kimbrel will still cost them a pick and $$$

Teams at this point will just wait til July so they won't owe the pick and $$$ towards tax

That where the cubs will probably start talking to him
Without a legit closer, waiting until July ensures Milwaukee can't contend.
 

CubsFaninMN

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Sucks for them.....
Not really, they're not maxed out on their budget like Ricketts is. And they're at the opening of their window, and as such are in win-now mode, which argues against worrying about the lost draft pick. Not like it's gonna be a very high pick.

They don't have to wait until July like a lot of other teams might. I doubt they will.

-Doug
 

chibears55

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Not really, they're not maxed out on their budget like Ricketts is. And they're at the opening of their window, and as such are in win-now mode, which argues against worrying about the lost draft pick. Not like it's gonna be a very high pick.

They don't have to wait until July like a lot of other teams might. I doubt they will.

-Doug
If they were gonna fork up the years and or money Kimbrel wants , they would of done it already...
They knew about Knebel and a couple of their other injured relievers a couple weeks ago..
 
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