2020 Shot analysis

[LordKOTL]

So per @MassHavoc request, I crunched a few number for our shots for and against, vs goals for and against. I have a running sheet on this so it will be updated but as of this post it includes the 11-19 Carolina match.

So far this season we've had a positive shot differential in 4 of our 21 games--the largest is +11. Of those games, we've won 1 and lost 3 (all before Game 10)
We've only had 1 game where we had a neutral goal differential. We lost the shootout to Pittsburgh.

The rest of our games we have a negative shot differential--the largest is -31. We're 8-8, with a SOL to boot.

Right now our hot differential is -146.

We've completed four 5-game sets, two 10-game sets, and 1 20-game set (with a game extra) Here's how it breaks out (note, I'm counting shootouts as effective "ties":

Games 1-5:
Shot differential: -14
Team Overall SV%: .913
Team Overall Shoot%: 9.49%
Avg SF/GP: 31.6
Avg SA/GP: 34.4
Record: 2-3-0

Games 6-10:
Shot differential: -2
Team Overall SV%: .919
Team Overall Shoot% : 6.33%
Avg SF/GP: 31.6
Avg SA/GP: 32.0
Record 1-3-1 (Lost shootout)

Games 11-15:
Shot differential: -66
Team Overall SV%: .938
Team Overall Shoot% : 9.15%
Avg SF/GP: 28.4
Avg SA/GP: 41.6
Record 2-3-0

Games 16-20:
Shot differential: -63
Team Overall SV%: .941
Team Overall Shoot% : 16.20%
Avg SF/GP: 28.4
Avg SA/GP: 41.0
Record 4-0-1 (Won shootout)

Games 1-10
Shot differential: -16
Team Overall SV%: .910
Team Overall Shoot% : 7.91%
Avg SF/GP: 31.6
Avg SA/GP: 33.2
Record 3-6-1 (Lost shootout)

Games 11-20
Shot differential: -129
Team Overall SV%: .935
Team Overall Shoot% : 12.68%
Avg SF/GP: 28.4
Avg SA/GP: 41.3
Record 6-3-1 (Won shootout)

Games 1-20
Shot differential: -145
Team Overall SV%: .923
Team Overall Shoot% : 10.17%
Avg SF/GP: 30.0
Avg SA/GP: 37.3
Record 9-9-2 (Split shootout)

Here's the trends that I gather:
Our Shot differential sucks, and has gotten bad, but is getting *slightly* better. However, I think the key things that have been winning us games is that our save percentage has gone through the roof--for both netminders and our shooting % has become very high.

On the positive our SV% has gone from below starter average (.915) to career average for both netminders, to überelite, to untenable. I expect the SV% to dip at some point.

Our shooting% went from okay, to Bleh., to okay, to insane. On the positive it means we're converting on less, which is excellent. I also think that 16% is untenable and would expect that to drop.

I still think we gotta get the SA down a bit, but unlike early we have to keep converting.

 

[puterwiz53]

The biggest reason for the shot differential is that the Hawks are not a fast team and when they are playing the fast teams they don't come out hitting. When you are a slower team, you need to hit a lot more to slow the other team down and you need to be far more aggressive. When the Hawks are not hitting and not aggressive, the faster teams just skate circles around them making the team look like a bunch of morons who haven't a clue how to play hockey. They need to adapt their style of play in accordance to each individiual team they are playing on that particular night. It is very simple, you are playing a much faster team, you come out aggressive and hitting to slow down their game.

 

[Tater]

Good stats there Lord.

 

[MassHavoc]

So per @MassHavoc request, I crunched a few number for our shots for and against, vs goals for and against. I have a running sheet on this so it will be updated but as of this post it includes the 11-19 Carolina match.

So far this season we've had a positive shot differential in 4 of our 21 games--the largest is +11. Of those games, we've won 1 and lost 3 (all before Game 10)
We've only had 1 game where we had a neutral goal differential. We lost the shootout to Pittsburgh.

The rest of our games we have a negative shot differential--the largest is -31. We're 8-8, with a SOL to boot.

Right now our hot differential is -146.

We've completed four 5-game sets, two 10-game sets, and 1 20-game set (with a game extra) Here's how it breaks out (note, I'm counting shootouts as effective "ties":

Games 1-5:
Shot differential: -14
Team Overall SV%: .913
Team Overall Shoot%: 9.49%
Avg SF/GP: 31.6
Avg SA/GP: 34.4
Record: 2-3-0

Games 6-10:
Shot differential: -2
Team Overall SV%: .919
Team Overall Shoot% : 6.33%
Avg SF/GP: 31.6
Avg SA/GP: 32.0
Record 1-3-1 (Lost shootout)

Games 11-15:
Shot differential: -66
Team Overall SV%: .938
Team Overall Shoot% : 9.15%
Avg SF/GP: 28.4
Avg SA/GP: 41.6
Record 2-3-0

Games 16-20:
Shot differential: -63
Team Overall SV%: .941
Team Overall Shoot% : 16.20%
Avg SF/GP: 28.4
Avg SA/GP: 41.0
Record 4-0-1 (Won shootout)

Games 1-10
Shot differential: -16
Team Overall SV%: .910
Team Overall Shoot% : 7.91%
Avg SF/GP: 31.6
Avg SA/GP: 33.2
Record 3-6-1 (Lost shootout)

Games 11-20
Shot differential: -129
Team Overall SV%: .935
Team Overall Shoot% : 12.68%
Avg SF/GP: 28.4
Avg SA/GP: 41.3
Record 6-3-1 (Won shootout)

Games 1-20
Shot differential: -145
Team Overall SV%: .923
Team Overall Shoot% : 10.17%
Avg SF/GP: 30.0
Avg SA/GP: 37.3
Record 9-9-2 (Split shootout)

Here's the trends that I gather:
Our Shot differential sucks, and has gotten bad, but is getting *slightly* better. However, I think the key things that have been winning us games is that our save percentage has gone through the roof--for both netminders and our shooting % has become very high.

On the positive our SV% has gone from below starter average (.915) to career average for both netminders, to überelite, to untenable. I expect the SV% to dip at some point.

Our shooting% went from okay, to Bleh., to okay, to insane. On the positive it means we're converting on less, which is excellent. I also think that 16% is untenable and would expect that to drop.

I still think we gotta get the SA down a bit, but unlike early we have to keep converting.

Can you associate the save percentage growth to anything directly in the play? Like did the goalies just get better or was it the system chnage? Do you remember any personal or grouping changes that you think have an impact. I know it's hard to probably say without individually analyzing each game, but i was just curious.

 

[LordKOTL]

The biggest reason for the shot differential is that the Hawks are not a fast team and when they are playing the fast teams they don't come out hitting. When you are a slower team, you need to hit a lot more to slow the other team down and you need to be far more aggressive. When the Hawks are not hitting and not aggressive, the faster teams just skate circles around them making the team look like a bunch of morons who haven't a clue how to play hockey. They need to adapt their style of play in accordance to each individiual team they are playing on that particular night. It is very simple, you are playing a much faster team, you come out aggressive and hitting to slow down their game.

My numbers were based on raw output: xx shots for/against, x goals for/against--not based on the *why*. We can speculate on that until we're blue in the face but I don't think it's as simple as hitting. Hell, if they could make setup/outlet passes better, that would change a lot since there's less turnovers.

Can you associate the save percentage growth to anything directly in the play? Like did the goalies just get better or was it the system chnage? Do you remember any personal or grouping changes that you think have an impact. I know it's hard to probably say without individually analyzing each game, but i was just curious.

Not really. Part of it could simply be that both goalies don't have much of a chance to disengage under the onslaught, but usually that means burnout in the long run (like Crawford circa 2016). Part of that could be just they're on a hot streak. I've seen softies in every 5-game "chunk", beautiful saves, good D (especially from Keith who's come on), and in every case that crippling cross-crease pass where Seabs or Gus loses their man shortside.

My best guess would be a little bit being the goalies being dialed in, but a lot of it being the O's conversion rate being very high. It seems we're not chasing games as much. I think that leads to a bit of a settling down, and forces the opposition to take risks. I do think long-term both are untenable, and we gotta start getting the SA down--and not like last night where we were dominated for 50 minutes and then showed up with 10 minutes to go.

I'm still going to track this...it will be interesting to see how things start to play out.

 

[MassHavoc]

My numbers were based on raw output: xx shots for/against, x goals for/against--not based on the *why*. We can speculate on that until we're blue in the face but I don't think it's as simple as hitting. Hell, if they could make setup/outlet passes better, that would change a lot since there's less turnovers.

Not really. Part of it could simply be that both goalies don't have much of a chance to disengage under the onslaught, but usually that means burnout in the long run (like Crawford circa 2016). Part of that could be just they're on a hot streak. I've seen softies in every 5-game "chunk", beautiful saves, good D (especially from Keith who's come on), and in every case that crippling cross-crease pass where Seabs or Gus loses their man shortside.

My best guess would be a little bit being the goalies being dialed in, but a lot of it being the O's conversion rate being very high. It seems we're not chasing games as much. I think that leads to a bit of a settling down, and forces the opposition to take risks. I do think long-term both are untenable, and we gotta start getting the SA down--and not like last night where we were dominated for 50 minutes and then showed up with 10 minutes to go.

I'm still going to track this...it will be interesting to see how things start to play out.

In my head I feel like unscientifically blocked shots has gone up as well,or just wiffs. I don't know why but I feel like the other teams aren't necessarily shooting less as that's the book out on this team, but that we're a.) not allowing as many to get to the goalie, and b.) applying more pressure forcing them off goal. but I also haven't seen as much hockey as I would like and and am not as trained of an eye.

 

[LordKOTL]

In my head I feel like unscientifically blocked shots has gone up as well,or just wiffs. I don't know why but I feel like the other teams aren't necessarily shooting less as that's the book out on this team, but that we're a.) not allowing as many to get to the goalie, and b.) applying more pressure forcing them off goal. but I also haven't seen as much hockey as I would like and and am not as trained of an eye.

I am in the dark recently as well thanks to work.

What I can tell you about the numbers in the past 5 games is this: we're 2-2-1 (W/L/SoL). Our wins were 24 and 27 SF, respectively, and 41 and 34 SA, respectively. Moving to the losses, it was 33 and 34 SF, and 33 and 35 SA. While the SOL was 39 SF and 41 SA.

In the losses our SV% tanked, but also our shooting%. it went from 29%/15% in the wins, to around 6% in the losses, and in the last game (shootout loss) it was down to about 3%.

I think the hingepin this year is going to be the shooting%. I've surrendered to the fact that our D will let in a fuckton of shots. The goalies have been doing their jobs. Either the SA has to go down (and I don't see that happening) or our scorers have to score and actually put puck in the net.

 

[LordKOTL]

...To go off of my last post:

It occurs to me that SV% and shooting% have to go hand-in-hand. A counted shot is either saved or scores a goal.

Now, overall SV% since the 2005 lockout is about .911, and starter-average is about .915. That means to me that overall shooting% should be in the neighborhood of 8.5% to 9%.

So, drilling it down:

Since the lockout with current 'hawk players having 82 or more games for the 'hawks, here's the overall shooting%--at least while playing for the 'hawks:

Debrincat: 16.1%
Toews: 14.0%
Kane: 12.2%
Shaw: 11.6%
Saad: 10.5%
Gus: 7.8%
Seabrook: 5.2%
Keith: 4.4%
Murph: 3.8%

I think there might need to be a dividing line between FWDs and D-men, but for now I'm assuming skater=skater 'cause in the end it all gets rolled up.

Looking at it this season for the players listed:
Kane: 13.3%
Saad: 11.8%
Seabrook: 10.7%
Gus: 9.4%
Debrincat: 8.3%
Shaw: 7.1%
Toews: 7.0%
Murph: 5.0%
Keith: 2.8%

I think we can see that some O-drivers are really not potting the goals needed, while others are okay. Granted, we're about 1/4 of the way. Plus, we got Dach, Caligula, Strome, Nylander, Kampf, and Kubalik all shooting 9% or better--in some cases untenably better like Dach.

I think Kane and Saad shouldn't fall off much through the year--they're playing close to their career numbers. I expect Seabs to fall off. Shaw, Debrincat and Toews? They gotta work on their accuracy.

 

[MassHavoc]

...To go off of my last post:

It occurs to me that SV% and shooting% have to go hand-in-hand. A counted shot is either saved or scores a goal.

Now, overall SV% since the 2005 lockout is about .911, and starter-average is about .915. That means to me that overall shooting% should be in the neighborhood of 8.5% to 9%.

So, drilling it down:

Since the lockout with current 'hawk players having 82 or more games for the 'hawks, here's the overall shooting%--at least while playing for the 'hawks:

Debrincat: 16.1%
Toews: 14.0%
Kane: 12.2%
Shaw: 11.6%
Saad: 10.5%
Gus: 7.8%
Seabrook: 5.2%
Keith: 4.4%
Murph: 3.8%

I think there might need to be a dividing line between FWDs and D-men, but for now I'm assuming skater=skater 'cause in the end it all gets rolled up.

Looking at it this season for the players listed:
Kane: 13.3%
Saad: 11.8%
Seabrook: 10.7%
Gus: 9.4%
Debrincat: 8.3%
Shaw: 7.1%
Toews: 7.0%
Murph: 5.0%
Keith: 2.8%

I think we can see that some O-drivers are really not potting the goals needed, while others are okay. Granted, we're about 1/4 of the way. Plus, we got Dach, Caligula, Strome, Nylander, Kampf, and Kubalik all shooting 9% or better--in some cases untenably better like Dach.

I think Kane and Saad shouldn't fall off much through the year--they're playing close to their career numbers. I expect Seabs to fall off. Shaw, Debrincat and Toews? They gotta work on their accuracy.

It would be interesting to see the agregate number at the top split out to fwd and d-man. I can't imagine the % for d-men is expected to be between 8.5 and 9?

 

[LordKOTL]

It would be interesting to see the agregate number at the top split out to fwd and d-man. I can't imagine the % for d-men is expected to be between 8.5 and 9?

Unfortunately I haven't been able to get that level of stat in a method I can effectively use--since we're talking about nearly 1000 defensemen alone who have laced them up since the 2005 lockout, and I can't just copy/paste into excel from Chrome in a useful format--i'd have to do some extreme excel work and, quite frankly, it's a chore and a half--it all comes out as a "list" from name, then next cell down is the stat, then next cell down is next stat, ad nauseum.

However, What I can tell you is this: for defensemen who have played 82 games or more since the 2005 lockout: the highest S% is Wade Brookbank at 12.9%, the lowest is Smaby and Festerling at 0%, and the median is 4.5% (Yandle, Sekera, Montador, Mark Staal, Ryan Suter, etc. are at that level).

For FWDs in the same criteria: Anson Carter tops it out at 20.4%, Tim Sestito bottoms out at 0%, and the median is 10.1% (Tyler Toffoli, Franz Nielsen, Ladislav Nagy, etc.)

To put some perspective: the median FWD shots is about 487, while the median defenseman shots is about 269. Plus defensemen tend to shoot for further out, so it makes sense that (a) their % is lower and (b) the average S% is not dead-between the FWDs and D-men.

I can't do much better than that without the data in a better format to crunch, but I think the medians are a pretty good ballpark estimate. I remember trying to do the drilldown of Overall goalie average since the lockout (.911) and Starter goalie average (.915)...that took days--and there are FAR less goalies to deal with.

Anyhow, Keith, who has had a stellar career, is shooting about 4.4% on the career so again, I think the medians are a good "ballpark" number. So if we assume, say, 4.5% for D and 10% for a FWD we can get a decent enough idea to say whether or not a player has Snipes worthy of Wesley or is the type that leaves a puddle of piss at the urinal.

 

[LordKOTL]

Update for games 21-25:
Shot differential: +15
Team Overall SV%: .939
Team Overall Shoot%: 5.03%
Avg SF/GP: 35.8
Avg SA/GP: 32.8
Record: 1-3-1 (SOL)

The numbers for this set of 5 hide a lot. The Dallas games are propping up the other games--with .976 and a shutout for, respectively. The rest are .879 (CAR), .886 (TBL) and .783 (COL). The last game--in the next 5-game batch, is even worse (.759--all SV%'s are team and count ENG's, not individual netminder's stats). The netminding is slipping a bit. The shooting% sucks--with Tampa being really bad at 2.56%. Adding onto this is the individual game shot differential: the 'hawks were under against CAR, TBL, and the 1st DAL game (-1, -1, and -2, respectively), and a +6 against DAL game 2 and +13 against COL.

On the season at this point (including Game 26), the 'hawks have scored 70 "regular" goals, and have 74 "regular" goals against. They have 4 ENG for and against. They've shot it 808 times and have had 938 shots against (-130 differental). The team overall SV% is .917, while the team S% is 9.16%.
~~~~
I wanted to look into the numbers a bit deeper--looking at individual S% since 9.16% seems overall respectable if a bit low. So, going off the median numbers (10.1 and 4.5) listed above:

Dach (20.9), Caligula (20.0), Strome (16.1), Kane (14.9), Saad (12.5), and Kubalik (10.5) are above FWD median. The rest are below: Carpenter hasn't dented the twine at all on 16 shots, Smith is at 4.8, Toews is at 6.0, Shaw at 6.5, Debrincat at 6.7, Nylander at 9.3, and Kampf is at 9.8. Now, when you look at shot numbers, Kane is at 94--almost 20 more shots than Debrincat at 75...so he's shooting, and scoring, and basically bolstering the FWD shooting percentages. For the top-5 in shots Toews (67), Saad (64) and Kubalik (57) round it out. So among the FWDs Kane, Saad, and Kubalik are doing the heavy lifting, and in spite of Toews and Deebrincat's efforts, both of them need target practice.

On the D-side, Boqvist (10.0), Murph (9.5), Seabrook (9.1), and Gus (7.9) are above median. On the downside KK and Gilbert haven't done dick (0 goals on 8 shots and 0 on 2, respectively). Then it's Keith (2.7), deHaan (2.9), and Maata (3.4). Per the shots Gus is leading (38) and has a high S%. Then you have Keith (37) and deHaan (34) that are low, sandwiched by Seabs (33) and high. So the D kinda mirrors the FWDs in that respect.
~~~~
The past 2 games the G has gone cold. Lehner/Crawford need to get back into the groove in spite of the D, but this deeper look makes me worried that not only does the season ride on whether or not Lehner and/or Crawford stay hot, but also if Kane, Saad, Kubalik, Gus, and Seabs can keep their S% up. If they go cold as well we're screwed.

 

[LordKOTL]

Update for games 26-30:
Shot differential: -20
Team Overall SV%: .898
Team Overall Shoot%: 7.05%
Avg SF/GP: 31.2
Avg SA/GP: 35.2
Record: 1-2-2 (1 SOL, 1 SOW)

Update for games 21-30:
Shot differential: +5
Team Overall SV%: .906
Team Overall Shoot%: 6.27%
Avg SF/GP: 33.5
Avg SA/GP: 34.0
Record: 2-5-3 (2 SOL, 1 SOW)

The shooting percentage picked up in the past 5 games and the SV% dropped--mainly due to the Colorado & St Louis games. Team SV% went back up for the last 3 games to over .925%, and the shooting% also went up against Boston and the Yotes (it was low against NJ). The differential also crashed.

Over the last 10 everything dropped: SH% from 12.68% to 6.27%, SV% from .935 to .906, and the shot differential got better from -129 to -5.

On the season the 'hawks stand with a -150 Shot differential, an overall SV% of .918 and an overall S% of 8.77%. They've shot it 935 times, and been shot against 1085. They've got 78 Regular goals for and 85 regular goals against. They've got 4 Empty net goals for and 4 empty net goals against, and are 2-3 in the shootout.

 

[LordKOTL]

Been a bit derelict since we're up to Game 37. For Games 31-35:
Shot differential: -37
Team Overall SV%: .893
Team Overall Shoot%: 8.57%
Avg SF/GP: 28.0
Avg SA/GP: 35.4
Record: 1-4-0

Netminding took another hit. Shots against are up, shots for down. Differential took a big hit as well. Shooting percentage went up slightly. Into the next batch of 5 though, things seem to be looking better. Will update at the mid-season mark at game 41.

 

[LordKOTL]

At the midpoint:
Halfway through the year, here's how the 'hawks stack up:
Shot differential: -226
Team Overall SV%: .914
Team Overall Shoot%: 917%
Avg SF/GP: 30.9
Avg SA/GP: 36.4
Record: 16-19-6 (3-3 in the shootout)
"Regular" goals for: 109
"Regular" goals against: 123
Empty net goals for: 7
Empty Net goals against: 5
Total shots for: 1265
Total shots against: 1491
~~~~
There have been 9 games total that the 'hawks have outshot their opponents. There are two games where the shots were dead even.

For the even shot games, we won one in a shootout, and lost the other.
For the games we outshot the opposition, we're 4-5.

In good news, netminding had been trending up which is good because the shots against has been rising. Also, the team shooting % his on a rise again.

There's still the same conclusion that has been the case since 2016: The shots against are high and the team is heavily relying on goaltending just to keep the team in it. Meanwhile the team is also leaning on our scorers to convert. The 'hawks have a single shutout this season. Other than that the record for 1 or 2 goals scored for games are 2-10-5--again, 3-3 in the shootout.

In other words, like all of the seasons since the last cup it starts and ends with goaltending--and that goaltending has to be at a high to insane level just to give the team a chance--which supports my opinion that "any old netminder" won't do. The way the 'hawks are right now if the goal is indeed to win the 'hawks need elite goaltending. If that's in place the team O then has to step it up on a high level because the 'hawks won't win many games 2-1, 2-0, or 1-0. That puts a lot on Kane's shoulder specifically since he's be the O driver for a long time now, but it also means other guys have to step it up. When the 'hawks do, they have a good chance at winning, when they don't, we lose. Further Kane is not going to be able to score 246+ goals this year just to get to 3 GF per game. secondary, and tertiary scoring will help.

And the team D? IMHO a lost cause with the current personnel and current team game plan. They've been fate tits on a zombie-level of worthless since 2016 and I don't think that's going to change without a new strategy *and* new personnel (i.e. not retreads). Part of that in my opinion is going to require a full rebuild, and not a rebuild-in-situ.

We still got half a season to go, but I'm not expecting a miracle this year.