82-80 Pecota got it right

[SilentLurker]

Wasn’t the first Pecota prediction 82 wins before the adjusted it to 79?

We laughed at them but they got it right.

These bums aren’t winning another game this season and will end on a 12 game losing streak.

 

[chibears55]

Wasn’t the first Pecota prediction 82 wins before the adjusted it to 79?

We laughed at them but they got it right.

These bums aren’t winning another game this season and will end on a 12 game losing streak.

I didn't laugh at them and I'll probably end up over with my 85 win prediction...

I guess all those sophisticated stats that some posters were using on here and had them winning over 90 games and running away with the division were dead wrong, and Ive noticed a few haven't been posting on here in a while since they started their stumble....

As I said, sometimes your eyes will tell you more then the stats about a team

Go Cubs.....

 

[JimJohnson]

I didn't laugh at them and I'll probably end up over with my 85 win prediction...

I guess all those sophisticated stats that some posters were using on here and had them winning over 90 games and running away with the division were dead wrong, and Ive noticed a few haven't been posting on here in a while since they started their stumble....

As I said, sometimes your eyes will tell you more then the stats about a team

Go Cubs.....

I too, have noticed a lot of those posters have disappeared. No doubt they will be back April 2020 telling us how awesome the Cubs will be next season.

 

[beckdawg]

I didn't laugh at them and I'll probably end up over with my 85 win prediction...

I guess all those sophisticated stats that some posters were using on here and had them winning over 90 games and running away with the division were dead wrong, and Ive noticed a few haven't been posting on here in a while since they started their stumble....

As I said, sometimes your eyes will tell you more then the stats about a team

Go Cubs.....

Not exactly hiding. I just frankly knew the shit show this place would be with people complaining and I didn't need that in my life. As for predictions, Cubs have a run differential of +104. The cards have a run differential of +95. Cards have won 90 games. The cubs expected win loss record is 91-69 right now. So, to sit here and act as though the people who felt this was a 90-95 win team were wrong isn't really fair because they have largely produced runs and prevented them at the rate of that kind of team.

I don't care to hash out reality vs expectation for this sort of thing because I know the arguments that are going to be made. Fact of the matter is they were 19-27 in 1 run games. That's where they lost their 8 missing wins. And the arguments people made prior to the season as to why something like that might happen aren't exactly accurate. The biggest concern people had was the bullpen. As of today the cubs have the 8th best bullpen ERA in baseball.

The concern about the offense was some what founded but I've still yet to see a cogent argument as to why they go from one of the most prolific offenses in baseball some nights to not showing up at all in others. I think it's fair to say that last year wasn't a fluke but I also can't sit here today and say who exactly is the problem in the offense. I mean maybe it's Maddon for all we know.

At the end of the day, the team did produce like a 90-95 win team it's just it was all or nothing with them and that made their results skew more poorly than they should have. I'm not afraid to admit I was wrong in thinking last year's second half was a fluke. Clearly something is broken in the offense. Hopefully they figure that out in the offseason.

 

[JimJohnson]

Not exactly hiding. I just frankly knew the shit show this place would be with people complaining and I didn't need that in my life. As for predictions, Cubs have a run differential of +104. The cards have a run differential of +95. Cards have won 90 games. The cubs expected win loss record is 91-69 right now. So, to sit here and act as though the people who felt this was a 90-95 win team were wrong isn't really fair because they have largely produced runs and prevented them at the rate of that kind of team.

I don't care to hash out reality vs expectation for this sort of thing because I know the arguments that are going to be made. Fact of the matter is they were 19-27 in 1 run games. That's where they lost their 8 missing wins. And the arguments people made prior to the season as to why something like that might happen aren't exactly accurate. The biggest concern people had was the bullpen. As of today the cubs have the 8th best bullpen ERA in baseball.

The concern about the offense was some what founded but I've still yet to see a cogent argument as to why they go from one of the most prolific offenses in baseball some nights to not showing up at all in others. I think it's fair to say that last year wasn't a fluke but I also can't sit here today and say who exactly is the problem in the offense. I mean maybe it's Maddon for all we know.

At the end of the day, the team did produce like a 90-95 win team it's just it was all or nothing with them and that made their results skew more poorly than they should have. I'm not afraid to admit I was wrong in thinking last year's second half was a fluke. Clearly something is broken in the offense. Hopefully they figure that out in the offseason.

The bullpen ERA is one of the most misleading stats around.

Here are some stats:
1) Worst save rate in the NL in the 9th inning or later
2) Blown 15 of 50 save opportunities - worst in the MLB
3) In high leverage situations, Cubs are last in the NL in walk rate (13.6%) and K/BB ratio (1.6). 12th in WHIP and opponents OPS.

 

[CSF77]

The bullpen ERA is one of the most misleading stats around.

Here are some stats:
1) Worst save rate in the NL in the 9th inning or later
2) Blown 15 of 50 save opportunities - worst in the MLB
3) In high leverage situations, Cubs are last in the NL in walk rate (13.6%) and K/BB ratio (1.6). 12th in WHIP and opponents OPS.

That attests to why they under achieved.

If Kimbrel was healthy and Strop didn't become a cheese ball tosser then they might add 3-4 wins alone.

And that is not being generous.

O wise it seems like one goes cold or on the DL the depth is there to pick it up. It is it lately that you lose 2 4WAR hitters and Rizzo is playing injured the O finally shut down.

Other than that the rotation has sucked. With the Exception of Darvish he had only 7 walks given up post ASG.

Q is meh

Lester is old

Hamels off injury

Hendricks soft tosser.

So if you want to pin point something it is a lack of talent here.

 

[CSF77]

Add to it.

When Joe goes and props up Mills as a ML starter then he has clearly been lacking talent in the rotation.

 

[Fred Garvin]

Cards were horrible last year in defense...but they totally turned that around. Not sure how the Cubs do that...but it can be done.

 

[CSF77]

Cards were horrible last year in defense...but they totally turned that around. Not sure how the Cubs do that...but it can be done.

Schwarber and Almora both regressed.

Heyward off position

A weaker RF in return.

And mix in some just bad plays.

Errors are kinda over rated. He should have made that out. But it doesn't address outs that could have been made but fell in due to a lack of skill.

There has been plenty made of Rhyno and his errorless streak but he would only make the sure plays and the lower % plays would go past him (on purpose? To insure a HOF bid?)

It is just a old model that had value.

 

[CSF77]

IMO BA/F%/OPS should be removed from the game.

DEF/UZR150/wRC+ or OPS+ OR WOBA be the new norms that MLB pushes on the fans. Those are the standards that teams go by.

MLB network is pushing statcast and that is also a great tool that the fan can relate to.