Bears -4 over Saints

Unannounced Fart

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Opening line is Bears -4. O/U is 39.5.

This will be back-to-back road games on grass for the Saints, Bears have an extra week to prepare, and Kyle Long will not play. I thought the Bears would be -3. If it drops to that, then maybe I'll take the Bears.
 

run and shoot

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My favorite teams
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At 5-1, the Saints will present a formidable challenge. We'll need to put up some points ( min 21).
 
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nc0gnet0

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Ummm...no it wont

Games RARELY pass the 3 number when starting above 4

No chance the books are giving that middle opportunity of +4 and -2
not going to pretend I understand all the nuances of numbers and the bets, but I bet by game time it is -2 or lower.
 

Raskolnikov

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Its the Bears homers effect, it moves the line significantly. Its not reality, its the betting line. Chicago, Las Vegas, Miami teams tend to have the most homer skewed lines due to Chicago's issues, and the others proximity to gambling.
 
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greg23

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Why would I do that, if I wanted to bet money, I would bet the Saints. almost a lock to win. Saints +4?.........free money!!
Saints +4
Bears -4
Who knows

What I do know is unless multiple players from the bears are suspended before Sunday (basically the qb room) there is no way the line will drop below 3......and it's not a bears cs saints thing; it would be the same for any nfl game.
 

greg23

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Its the Bears homers effect, it moves the line significantly. Its not reality, its the betting line. Chicago, Las Vegas, Miami teams tend to have the most homer skewed lines due to Chicago's issues, and the others proximity to gambling.
Ummm..again...not really.

Where the homer effect does come into play is with futures odds not individual games.
 

nc0gnet0

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Saints +4
Bears -4
Who knows

What I do know is unless multiple players from the bears are suspended before Sunday (basically the qb room) there is no way the line will drop below 3......and it's not a bears cs saints thing; it would be the same for any nfl game.
As I said, I don't understand all the nuances of betting. I do know the betting line for the lions started at Lions +6.5 and is down to +3.5, a three point drop. Are you saying that is less substantial than a 3 point drop on the Bears game? Can you explain why?
 

greg23

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As I said, I don't understand all the nuances of betting. I do know the betting line for the lions started at Lions +6.5 and is down to +3.5, a three point drop. Are you saying that is less substantial than a 3 point drop on the Bears game? Can you explain why?
Yes

3 is the most likely outcome of an nfl game thus spreads on favorites dont drops from 3.5 (or higher) to 2.5 (or lower)

It's called exposure....Vegas isnt that stupid to get middled and killed.....and they dont make lines predicting the outcome/score.
 

nc0gnet0

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Yes

3 is the most likely outcome of an nfl game thus spreads on favorites dont drops from 3.5 (or higher) to 2.5 (or lower)

It's called exposure....Vegas isnt that stupid to get middled and killed.....and they dont make lines predicting the outcome/score.
I don't know what this is. So, a line drop to pick em is more likely than a line drop to -2, is that what your saying? Or is it because the line opened at -4, someone could bet 10k on the saints, and then when it dropped to -2 bet another 10K on the Bears and hope for a 3 point bears victory, winning both bets?
 

greg23

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I don't know what this is. So, a line drop to pick em is more likely than a line drop to -2, is that what your saying? Or is it because the line opened at -4, someone could bet 10k on the saints, and then when it dropped to -2 bet another 10K on the Bears and hope for a 3 point bears victory, winning both bets?
How old are you?

Spreads rarely move across key numbers like 3 and 7

4 (or higher) to 3...sure

Anything above 3.5 to anything below 2.5....never

Same thing with spreads above 7.5 moving to 6.5 or lower....never.
 

nc0gnet0

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How old are you?

Spreads rarely move across key numbers like 3 and 7

4 (or higher) to 3...sure

Anything above 3.5 to anything below 2.5....never

Same thing with spreads above 7.5 moving to 6.5 or lower....never.
Has nothing to do with age, just the fact I don't bet sports (teams) games other than an occasional bet with a friend. Now, if you wanted me to explain horse betting I could do that for days.

so your saying that if 90% of 5 million wagered on this game ( I have no idea what amount a single game normally receives in amount wagered) that if 90% of the money came in on the Saints, the line still would not move below -3?
 
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