Bears -4 over Saints

greg23

Well-known member
2,008
864
70
Has nothing to do with age, just the fact I don't bet sports (teams) games other than an occasional bet with a friend. Now, if you wanted me to explain horse betting I could do that for days.

so your saying that if 90% of a 5 million wagered on this game ( I have no idea what amount a single game normally receives in amount wagered) that if 90% of the money came in on the Saints, the line still would not move below -3?
Yes
It wont ever move below 3

Once it does 5 million will instantly be bet on team x -2.5 opening up the possibility of the house losing both ways and almost 100% of the money wagered.

It doesn't happen.
 

nc0gnet0

CCS Donator
Donator
8,389
2,478
70
Yes
It wont ever move below 3

Once it does 5 million will instantly be bet on team x -2.5 opening up the possibility of the house losing both ways and almost 100% of the money wagered.

It doesn't happen.
Interesting, not a single game today was decided by 3 points. What is the furthest down this line could do? And what are those funny numbers after the spread, like in -3 +1.25
 

nc0gnet0

CCS Donator
Donator
8,389
2,478
70
How much does a $2 6 horse superfecta box cost?
6x5x4x3 x $2

I was always more fond of the part wheels myself.

1/2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6
2,3,4,5,6/1/2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6
2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6/1/2,3,4,5,6
2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6/1

$480 wagered
*(and to be honest, I normally did this with a $1.00 wheel/key. Horse racing is different, your not betting against the track, they get their cut no matter what). Used to own Harness Horses back in the day.
 
Last edited:

Klotty23

Active member
1,121
331
40
Lines at 2.5 and 1.5 are very rare and stupid for the house to put out.

there’s this thing called ties that was previously explained to not out the house in a position to get “possibly” killed.

A lot of you apparently don’t really know what lines represent. They don’t represent what they think the winner will by or lose by.

the initial line is based on what they think will grab the attention of bettors and hopefully get 50 % of bets on both sides. That way the win the guaranteed Vig from the losing bettors. No stress on their part, hence why the poster was correct when they said 2.5 won’t be available! You may find one house that will have 2.5 but that will be because they have an uneven amount of money on a certain side and thus want to get bettors to bet the other side to get closer to the 50% target!

it is very easy to predict what the house will open certain bets at! Home and away makes a difference but the poster was right about the3 and 7 mark. It’s a statistical probability

the bears line may drop but dropping below the 3 mark is extremely rare and most likely due to an injury. Another huge reason lines don’t drop that much that often is bc the best betters or sharps as they are known out up about 50% of the money places on any given bet And don’t want them colluding to drive a certain number down and then rebet the other side at a much better line with a higher amount. So, the house relies on the average day betters who don’t do very well to help keep lines steady which is a huge factor in initial lines as well.

it has nothing to do with who is better or worse. It’s a logical number that targets equal amount of money (not bets) on each side. Vig

I’ll personally wait and see if the line doesn’t move much but a high percentage of the bets are placed on the saints - I’ll then take the bears! That means the sharps are betting the bears and they are right lore often than the average joe
 

nc0gnet0

CCS Donator
Donator
8,389
2,478
70
Lines at 2.5 and 1.5 are very rare and stupid for the house to put out.

there’s this thing called ties that was previously explained to not out the house in a position to get “possibly” killed.

A lot of you apparently don’t really know what lines represent. They don’t represent what they think the winner will by or lose by.

the initial line is based on what they think will grab the attention of bettors and hopefully get 50 % of bets on both sides. That way the win the guaranteed Vig from the losing bettors. No stress on their part, hence why the poster was correct when they said 2.5 won’t be available! You may find one house that will have 2.5 but that will be because they have an uneven amount of money on a certain side and thus want to get bettors to bet the other side to get closer to the 50% target!

it is very easy to predict what the house will open certain bets at! Home and away makes a difference but the poster was right about the3 and 7 mark. It’s a statistical probability

the bears line may drop but dropping below the 3 mark is extremely rare and most likely due to an injury. Another huge reason lines don’t drop that much that often is bc the best betters or sharps as they are known out up about 50% of the money places on any given bet And don’t want them colluding to drive a certain number down and then rebet the other side at a much better line with a higher amount. So, the house relies on the average day betters who don’t do very well to help keep lines steady which is a huge factor in initial lines as well.

it has nothing to do with who is better or worse. It’s a logical number that targets equal amount of money (not bets) on each side. Vig

I’ll personally wait and see if the line doesn’t move much but a high percentage of the bets are placed on the saints - I’ll then take the bears! That means the sharps are betting the bears and they are right lore often than the average joe
How does the average Joe know what the sharps are betting vs the average Joe ? I assume the house knows based on the amount of the bet (sharps being a larger wager, average joe a smaller one, but a lot more average joes). Do they release this information?
 

Unannounced Fart

Well-known member
3,335
2,268
70
Lines at 2.5 and 1.5 are very rare and stupid for the house to put out.

there’s this thing called ties that was previously explained to not out the house in a position to get “possibly” killed.

A lot of you apparently don’t really know what lines represent. They don’t represent what they think the winner will by or lose by.

the initial line is based on what they think will grab the attention of bettors and hopefully get 50 % of bets on both sides. That way the win the guaranteed Vig from the losing bettors. No stress on their part, hence why the poster was correct when they said 2.5 won’t be available! You may find one house that will have 2.5 but that will be because they have an uneven amount of money on a certain side and thus want to get bettors to bet the other side to get closer to the 50% target!

it is very easy to predict what the house will open certain bets at! Home and away makes a difference but the poster was right about the3 and 7 mark. It’s a statistical probability

the bears line may drop but dropping below the 3 mark is extremely rare and most likely due to an injury. Another huge reason lines don’t drop that much that often is bc the best betters or sharps as they are known out up about 50% of the money places on any given bet And don’t want them colluding to drive a certain number down and then rebet the other side at a much better line with a higher amount. So, the house relies on the average day betters who don’t do very well to help keep lines steady which is a huge factor in initial lines as well.

it has nothing to do with who is better or worse. It’s a logical number that targets equal amount of money (not bets) on each side. Vig

I’ll personally wait and see if the line doesn’t move much but a high percentage of the bets are placed on the saints - I’ll then take the bears! That means the sharps are betting the bears and they are right lore often than the average joe
Yes, and based on the very small sample size here, the public will be all over the Saints, which is why I'll wait to see if the line gets to -3. Pretty sure it'll get to -3.5.
 

nc0gnet0

CCS Donator
Donator
8,389
2,478
70
Yes, and based on the very small sample size here, the public will be all over the Saints, which is why I'll wait to see if the line gets to -3. Pretty sure it'll get to -3.5.
With Hicks likely out, and maybe even Mitch, why wouldn't the sharps be all over the Saints? What if Roquan is again out? none of this is enough to get the line below 3?

(and yes I understand that vegas is only trying to even out the bets, but is the public that stupid?)
 
Last edited:

Unannounced Fart

Well-known member
3,335
2,268
70
With Hicks likely out, and maybe even Mitch, why wouldn't the sharps be all over the Saints? What if Roquan is again out? none of this is enough to get the line below 3?
I'm not pretending to be a sharp, but in this case, the public tend to not properly account for things like dome teams playing on the road on grass. Yes, the Saints just won on the road on grass, but I'm not going to count on it two weeks in a row. It's like how everyone loved the Rams when they traveled to Chicago last year. Everyone just sees the Rams as the better team on paper, but they didn't account for the warm weather team on the road in cold conditions.
Also, recency bias with the Bears losing to the Raiders. But the Bears had a dominating (defensive) performance at home the week prior against the Vikes, and I think they are capable of that again, especially at home.
 

Doubledown

Well-known member
5,337
2,218
70
Backup QB just won three in a row, dome team away on grass, possibly Cold/windy, Playing the best Defense in the League, you say the Bears have no chance? it’s a business guys ,Bears need it more.
 

TL1961

Well-known member
20,443
7,180
105
As I said, I don't understand all the nuances of betting. I do know the betting line for the lions started at Lions +6.5 and is down to +3.5, a three point drop. Are you saying that is less substantial than a 3 point drop on the Bears game? Can you explain why?
6.5 and 3.5 are still between a FG and TD. It was also driven by an injury to GBs best WR who is out.

4 to 2 is opposite sides of a FG difference.
 

Toast88

Well-known member
6,779
4,212
70
How the fuck are the Bears favored?
The books know that the public money still doesn’t like Bridgewater, and the Bears’ money all season has outperformed the Bears’ actual performance. Gotta put some incentive on more people to bet the Saints so the books don’t lose their shirts. Gotta try to get equal action on both sides.
 
Last edited:

TL1961

Well-known member
20,443
7,180
105
With Hicks likely out, and maybe even Mitch, why wouldn't the sharps be all over the Saints? What if Roquan is again out? none of this is enough to get the line below 3?

(and yes I understand that vegas is only trying to even out the bets, but is the public that stupid?)
Mitch is not out
 

bearmick

Captain Objectivity
Donator
CCS Hall of Fame '19
32,324
32,665
135
Bears will win and cover.
What makes you think that? Do you think Trubisky will play better in a sling? I think the margin of error is so small because of the offensive ineptitude. It will take the defense having a performance like they did against the Vikings for the Bears to beat good teams. I just can't see them being that tight every week.
 

dennehy

Well-known member
2,939
1,328
70
With Hicks likely out, and maybe even Mitch, why wouldn't the sharps be all over the Saints? What if Roquan is again out? none of this is enough to get the line below 3?

(and yes I understand that vegas is only trying to even out the bets, but is the public that stupid?)
Unlikely that Mitch is out given they already put Bray back on the practice squad.
 

halftime

Well-known member
3,084
1,713
70
What makes you think that? Do you think Trubisky will play better in a sling? I think the margin of error is so small because of the offensive ineptitude. It will take the defense having a performance like they did against the Vikings for the Bears to beat good teams. I just can't see them being that tight every week.
I just read something that said Mitch is worse than most QBs after missing a week. Like he's prime for laying a stinker.

Maybe I'll look into it later. Idk, how true that is...
 
Top