Bears -4 over Saints

Klotty23

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How does the average Joe know what the sharps are betting vs the average Joe ? I assume the house knows based on the amount of the bet (sharps being a larger wager, average joe a smaller one, but a lot more average joes). Do they release this information?
They release the percentage of bets per team but unless you look hourly you won’t know at what odds and you’ll never know the amount but if a really high percentage bets on one team and there’s little line movement then you know there’s an equal or higher amount bet on the other team. The average joe doesn’t know but the house knows what the average joe is betting!
 

didshereallysaythat

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Has Brees been ruled out for this game? Him playing would be the only way for the line to move under 3.

For the line to start at 4 and the Bears at home means the casinos think the Bears are the better team overall, not just at home. That is with Bridgewater playing.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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The Bears are favored? lol
Makes sense really.

Start at "pick em": Bears ... or Saints in CHI on grass without Brees? Who ya think Joe Blow picks? Bears D or Teddy? Thinking Bears D given the only bad game they had was in London and game's in CHI. Vegas gives 3 for home so Bears by 1 on a neutral field isn't too crazy given Saints O has also noticeably slowed without Brees.

I'm picking Saints + 4 all day long though. Saints D is underrated and Teddy is in a bit of a groove vs. Bears QBs trying to find a groove. I predict the line to go to 3.5 or 3 by Sunday.

I predict 3-3 for the Bears here and look to next week for a new winning streak to save CHI's playoff run.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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What makes you think that? Do you think Trubisky will play better in a sling? I think the margin of error is so small because of the offensive ineptitude. It will take the defense having a performance like they did against the Vikings for the Bears to beat good teams. I just can't see them being that tight every week.
You'd think Mitch coming back after an injury and time off would be a reason to fret over the Bears.

Remember the Rams game
 

nvanprooyen

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Staying away from this one. I really don't know what to expect after that turd they layed in London. I could see the defense come out and completely dominate, or be on the good side of average and allow the Saints to score enough and put the offense in a hole they can't dig themselves out of. I'm not betting on any Bears games until after this one, and have a chance to see how they respond.
 

greg23

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Another misconception

Vegas wants exactly 50% of the money each way and will keep moving the line accordingly?

NOT TRUE

Again...they WONT move a line from above 3.5 to below 2.5 (same with 7.5 and 6.5) even if they're highly leveraged on the underdog. They won't expose themselves to a high % of wageres having the ability to beat them both ways (10 million at +3.5 & 10 million at -2.5)....if they're overexposed on the dog; they'll keep the line at -3 and adjust the odds accordingly on the line (+3 -125).....most cases this doesnt happen as the public generally bets favorites anyway and vegas never makes nfl lines that are off much.

In fact most NFL games are skewed much greater than 50-50 being wagered on each side.....they clean up by having 12-16 games each week (volume) and with parlays/teaser losers.

Again....all this is prefaced with the fact that major and multiple injuries matter and will change the line drastically if they pop us late (usually to qb) and line movements in between key numbers (3-7) are generally irrelevant (like the packers/lions spread)
 

nc0gnet0

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Right, I didn't even bother with that because it has no basis in reality.
I never said he was out. I could have just as easily used Mack as an example....an unexpected injury/absence do to personal reasons that might make the line move a significant amount.
 

greg23

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I never said he was out. I could have just as easily used Mack as an example....an unexpected injury/absence do to personal reasons that might make the line move a significant amount.
individual players don't really change the spread much (MAYBE a half a point)....unless they are Qb's

you're reading way to much into this and assuming spreads change like the stock market.....once they're established, 24 hours later they rarely move and if they do move it's usually between significantly irrelevant betting numbers (below 2 either way and changing of the favorite, between 4-6.5, 7.5-9, 10.5.-13.5, etc
 

nc0gnet0

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individual players don't really change the spread much (MAYBE a half a point)....unless they are Qb's

you're reading way to much into this and assuming spreads change like the stock market.....once they're established, 24 hours later they rarely move and if they do move it's usually between significantly irrelevant betting numbers (below 2 either way and changing of the favorite, between 4-6.5, 7.5-9, 10.5.-13.5, etc

Ok, I accept that, I stand corrected. Not sure about rarely though, as I do read WF and it seems the lines are moving all the time, but perhaps not between significant numbers as you said. As I mentioned, never really understood the lines and sports betting. my closest thing was horse racing.
 

ijustposthere

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Backup QB just won three in a row, dome team away on grass, possibly Cold/windy, Playing the best Defense in the League, you say the Bears have no chance? it’s a business guys ,Bears need it more.
The Saints aren't playing the Patriots...
 
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