Bears Up Coming Free Agents

[Sculpt]

The problem with HHCD is that he is likely to get 8-9/season. Once you pay Jackson you would have well over 20 million playing safety. That is a ton for a team that plays a lot of 2 deep looks.

What do you think Dix is worth to the Bears? Would you pay 5-6/year?

You think he'd command 8-9/season? I think Amos outperformed him by quite a bit. Comparing Dix 2019 to Amos 2018, I think he's a full step down. For Safeties 2019, he's 25th in Tackles, 2 Ints, 7 PD, 0 FF, 0 Sacks. Even with 1 year of inflation, he shouldn't command as much as Amos did. Only 12 Safeties make 7mil or more. Dix is just a bit above avg, I'd say. I think that'd put him between 5-6mil.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

Market value for a 'solid safety' is not top dollar which is what top 15% is. Perhaps you are over rating him and think he's more than a solid safety. If that's your view, your allowed opinion though mine is different but then don't muddy the waters with solid safety pay nonsense. If you think he's an a near elite safety and is getting paid appropriately, just say what you mean so you can have a proper argument and stop this silliness. If you had said he's better than solid and getting paid that way, I'd have disagreed but not responded to you. I responded because your statement was nonsensical.

You clearly do not have an understanding of positional market nor do you have a concept of the differential between the value of players by comparison of their talent level, projected contributions, position of need, and reliability. In a couple years, Amos will be lucky to be a top 15 paid safety because of the contracts waiting to be handed out.

You also cannot compare the markets for QB vs ILB vs S as they are valued differently. Why anyone would compare the contract of a S to a ILB is beyond me. The market for Running Back is relatively low these days because of supply and demand. You can get a lot of production at low cost for the position so the market is dictated by it depending on how the game is being shaped. That is why EDGE is so highly valued. How an EDGE is paid has no bearing on the Safety market and vice versa.

If the top end of the Safety market is 14-15 million and Amos makes 9, he is LITERALLY rated at 64% value compared to the top of the market.

How in the world is that overpaid considering his solid production, reliability, solid play, and young playing age?

What you associate with "overpaid" needs a valid criteria or you cannot justify the statement.

My position is the same. Amos is paid appropriately. I think he got the high end of what he could get, but he had to take less guaranteed money to get it which might end up being foolish down the road.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

What do you think Dix is worth to the Bears? Would you pay 5-6/year?

You think he'd command 8-9/season? I think Amos outperformed him by quite a bit. Comparing Dix 2019 to Amos 2018, I think he's a full step down. For Safeties 2019, he's 25th in Tackles, 2 Ints, 7 PD, 0 FF, 0 Sacks. Even with 1 year of inflation, he shouldn't command as much as Amos did. Only 12 Safeties make 7mil or more. Dix is just a bit above avg, I'd say. I think that'd put him between 5-6mil.

Considering Amos' market, I imagine he can get something similar. He took a risk this year with the "prove it" deal and should be able to cash in as a consequence. I am not as nuanced on the Bears cap situation, but I think that if you can get Dix for 6 million/season then you should bring him back as you get Amos-esque production for 2/3 the price. I consider such a possibility remote considering what the market currently is and based on Dix's play. If Dix gives that Bears that price, he clearly believes in the organization and has a strong desire to play next to Eddie for the next several years.

With that said, players are most likely to take the most money especially if more of it is guaranteed.

 

[Sculpt]

Considering Amos' market, I imagine he can get something similar.

Are their markets similar? Would be looking at how many starting-caliber FA Safeties there are, and how many teams need a starting Safety from FA? Sometimes there's a lot of rookie-contract players that are taking the starting positions, and sometimes not. And there's other key factors. What are you referring to?

He took a risk this year with the "prove it" deal and should be able to cash in as a consequence. I am not as nuanced on the Bears cap situation, but I think that if you can get Dix for 6 million/season then you should bring him back as you get Amos-esque production for 2/3 the price. I consider such a possibility remote considering what the market currently is and based on Dix's play. If Dix gives that Bears that price, he clearly believes in the organization and has a strong desire to play next to Eddie for the next several years.

With that said, players are most likely to take the most money especially if more of it is guaranteed.

Yep, you're right guaranteed money is the other side of the coin when talking about how much a player makes per year. Dix may want a fairly large amount of guaranteed money, with a lower per year price.

 

[Adipost]

I think Lynch has been more detrimental than productive. I’ve never seen someone get called for offsides so often. Looking at him it is also hard to believe he is a LB and not DE or DT. Dude is so out of shape. He’s going to eat himself out of the league. He’s shown a lack of motivation throughout his career. If he had any drive or discipline, he’d likely be a very good player.

Lynch has been playing out of position due to the Hicks injury. They put him inside at DT on passing downs.

 

[Chicagosports89]

Lynch has been playing out of position due to the Hicks injury. They put him inside at DT on passing downs.

Is this an FYI or an argument against something I’ve said?

 

[Bearly]

You clearly do not have an understanding of positional market nor do you have a concept of the differential between the value of players by comparison of their talent level, projected contributions, position of need, and reliability. In a couple years, Amos will be lucky to be a top 15 paid safety because of the contracts waiting to be handed out.

You also cannot compare the markets for QB vs ILB vs S as they are valued differently. Why anyone would compare the contract of a S to a ILB is beyond me. The market for Running Back is relatively low these days because of supply and demand. You can get a lot of production at low cost for the position so the market is dictated by it depending on how the game is being shaped. That is why EDGE is so highly valued. How an EDGE is paid has no bearing on the Safety market and vice versa.

If the top end of the Safety market is 14-15 million and Amos makes 9, he is LITERALLY rated at 64% value compared to the top of the market.

How in the world is that overpaid considering his solid production, reliability, solid play, and young playing age?

What you associate with "overpaid" needs a valid criteria or you cannot justify the statement.

My position is the same. Amos is paid appropriately. I think he got the high end of what he could get, but he had to take less guaranteed money to get it which might end up being foolish down the road.

Every year pay goes up, duh. Doesn't change a thing. We let him walk for a reason, he's way overpaid. That you think not getting more guaranteed money may bite him in the ass only reinforces that. The fact that overspending in FA doesn't change the fact that it's overspending. You can overpay a player and still be satisfied that you filled a need. He's overpaid and his yearly salary is currently that of a near elite players. I suspect the issue if that I view him as an average to good NFL starter and you see him as something more. How'd he do without Jackson next to him in the playoff game. He's not special in any way. I know PFF disagrees but that's fine with me.
https://www.profootballweekly.com/2...ch-starting-s-adrian-amos-from-bears/a4qyc5r/
the Packers plugged a hole in their susceptible pass 'D,' but they appear to be overpaying for a somewhat limited player in a bloated safety market. Amos doesn't figure to provide much assistance to Green Bay when it comes to covering some of the Bears' bigger mismatch weapons in Trey Burton and Tarik Cohen, for instance.

There's obviously room for alternate opinions on his overall play but this argument isn't about how good he is or how free agents often cash in, it's that you said he was being paid like and average solid safety and that's just not the case when you're making the 3rd highest SS money in the league.

 

[Bearly]

You really have no idea what you're talking about. It may help you to read up on NFL contracts a bit. You're being schooled and you cant even see it...lol

Add something worthwhile or fuck off.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

Every year pay goes up, duh. Doesn't change a thing. We let him walk for a reason, he's way overpaid. That you think not getting more guaranteed money may bite him in the ass only reinforces that. The fact that overspending in FA doesn't change the fact that it's overspending. You can overpay a player and still be satisfied that you filled a need. He's overpaid and his yearly salary is currently that of a near elite players. I suspect the issue if that I view him as an average to good NFL starter and you see him as something more. How'd he do without Jackson next to him in the playoff game. He's not special in any way. I know PFF disagrees but that's fine with me.
https://www.profootballweekly.com/2...ch-starting-s-adrian-amos-from-bears/a4qyc5r/
the Packers plugged a hole in their susceptible pass 'D,' but they appear to be overpaying for a somewhat limited player in a bloated safety market. Amos doesn't figure to provide much assistance to Green Bay when it comes to covering some of the Bears' bigger mismatch weapons in Trey Burton and Tarik Cohen, for instance.

There's obviously room for alternate opinions on his overall play but this argument isn't about how good he is or how free agents often cash in, it's that you said he was being paid like and average solid safety and that's just not the case when you're making the 3rd highest SS money in the league.

This post contains no new information with regards to the premise I am defending nor is it a good defense of your premise because it does not thoroughly explain how you view the term "overpay" with regards to production, age, position of value, and reliability.

Your only counter position is that you feel that Amos is not a good safety, but bring little criteria with which to defend that position. This is an argument is just bad and it always will be bad. The "that is fine with me" is just pure laziness.

We let him walk away because we had other needs to address and could not match the offer he got. We knew that would be a significant possibility because of the other extensions that needed to get done last year and the extensions that are coming up in 2020. Unfortunately, overall, Amos was expendable at 9 million. That does not mean he did not earn it.

Your position is that he is paid "near elite" but give no premise as to what that means. At that level, those guys are making 12-14 million (likely 15 soon). By comparison Amos is at 60-75% of that value which is a justified differential in pay between those types of players.

At 60-75% of the value of the top end of the market, yes he is paid like a solid safety.

 

[Jcollins1977]

No Interest

Kyle Long
Chase Daniels
Aaron Lynch
Bradley Sowell
Ted Larsen
Aaron Lynch
Isaiah Irving
Corey Levin
Eric Saubert
Keep

Nick Williams, has earned an extension and some guaranteed money.
Cornelius Lucas, his play has earned him a pay bump and a chance to take Massie's job.
Patrick Scales
Kevin Pierre-Louis, I would try and get him on a 2 year deal to be the primary backup. [2 years 6 million]
Brent Urban, he has been solid and he is huge get him back for another year and leave the DL alone.
Nick K, he is younger, cheaper, and healthier than Trevathan.
DHC
Roy Robertson-Harris [2nd round]
Rashaad Coward [Original Round or short extension]
Alex Bars
Jesper Horsted
JP Holtz, I would offer him an extension based on his play. He is getting 1 year 610k as an ERFA I would offer him 3 years 4 million/1 guaranteed

Right Deal

Danny Trevathan
HHCD
Sherrick McManis, a lot of young CBs he would need to take a pay cut.
Deon Bush, I would be fine starting him at SS next year on a reasonable deal.

I like it, only I would include Lynch. I think he’s just as good as Floyd. He can be a bonehead at times but solid.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

Are their markets similar? Would be looking at how many starting-caliber FA Safeties there are, and how many teams need a starting Safety from FA? Sometimes there's a lot of rookie-contract players that are taking the starting positions, and sometimes not. And there's other key factors. What are you referring to?


Yep, you're right guaranteed money is the other side of the coin when talking about how much a player makes per year. Dix may want a fairly large amount of guaranteed money, with a lower per year price.

Age, performance, and position of value. It is likely none of the top safeties will hit the market and will sign extensions with their club. If they somehow get loose, they will be getting top dollar. Considering Amos' payout and what those guys will get in extensions, it is likely that Dix would receive a pay day between the 7-9 million range which seems appropriate for that tier. When a guy is paid 8 figures, I think teams expect a lot in return, but with as much play experience and positive play guys like Dix can expect to get a decent deal.

 

[Bearly]

This post contains no new information with regards to the premise I am defending nor is it a good defense of your premise because it does not thoroughly explain how you view the term "overpay" with regards to production, age, position of value, and reliability.

Your only counter position is that you feel that Amos is not a good safety, but bring little criteria with which to defend that position. This is an argument is just bad and it always will be bad. The "that is fine with me" is just pure laziness.

We let him walk away because we had other needs to address and could not match the offer he got. We knew that would be a significant possibility because of the other extensions that needed to get done last year and the extensions that are coming up in 2020. Unfortunately, overall, Amos was expendable at 9 million. That does not mean he did not earn it.

Your position is that he is paid "near elite" but give no premise as to what that means. At that level, those guys are making 12-14 million (likely 15 soon). By comparison Amos is at 60-75% of that value which is a justified differential in pay between those types of players.

At 60-75% of the value of the top end of the market, yes he is paid like a solid safety.

You saying that doesn't make it so. If one RB gets paid 25% more than the rest in any given year, it doesn't make the 3rd highest paid RB outside of the top pay category nor makes that RB paid only like a solid starter. Same is true of Amos being the 3rd highest paid strong safety. Some will get paid more this year as the cap expands but it doesn't change what the situation is currently.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

You saying that doesn't make it so. If one RB gets paid 25% more than the rest in any given year, it doesn't make the 3rd highest paid RB outside of the top pay category nor makes that RB paid only like a solid starter. Same is true of Amos being the 3rd highest paid strong safety. Some will get paid more this year as the cap expands but it doesn't change what the situation is currently.

You're reaching. We're talking all safeties. Considering he is number 10 on that list and is paying 25-40% less than the top end is exactly what that means.

The market for his skills is between 7-9 million similar to the market for Prince a few years back. You get a solid starter at a position of need and then the Bears handed him a deal of 9 million or roughly 60% of the top of the market.

That looks familiar does it not?

 

[truthbedamned]

You're reaching. We're talking all safeties. Considering he is number 10 on that list and is paying 25-40% less than the top end is exactly what that means.

The market for his skills is between 7-9 million similar to the market for Prince a few years back. You get a solid starter at a position of need and then the Bears handed him a deal of 9 million or roughly 60% of the top of the market.

That looks familiar does it not?

https://www.straightforwardsports.net/adrian-amos-vs-haha-clinton-dix/

Going into this most people thought that Amos was a super solid player nothing special but he really didn’t make mistakes. People viewed Haha Clinton-Dix as almost the exact opposite, he made mistakes but he made up for it with his big-play abilities. So far this season Amos has had one interception (against Trubisky), one pass defended and 13 tackles. Clinton-Dix has had two interceptions (one for a touchdown), 2 passes defended, and 17 tackles.
While these numbers are everything we can look to PFF ratings for a little more detail. While I don’t think their ratings are the be all end all of stats they do help give a general idea. They rate Amos as a 72.4 which is considered “good”, and Clinton-Dix at an 81.9 which I think is considered “elite”. I had trouble finding PFFs scale and what they mean but I am pretty sure that’s what they are.

 

[Bearly]

You're reaching. We're talking all safeties. Considering he is number 10 on that list and is paying 25-40% less than the top end is exactly what that means.

The market for his skills is between 7-9 million similar to the market for Prince a few years back. You get a solid starter at a position of need and then the Bears handed him a deal of 9 million or roughly 60% of the top of the market.

That looks familiar does it not?

We're talking SS and he's #3. Saying he's #10 at safety it's like saying a RT is getting like a solid starter because he's the 10th highest paid T in the league. It's the same as saying that Ja'Waun James who is in a similar situation at RT vs LT is getting paid like any other solid T.

Again, you are changing the scenario and focus of the disagreement. We were only discussing his pay relative to other solid SS's not his overall worth which will be opinion based.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

We're talking SS and he's #3. Saying he's #10 at safety it's like saying a RT is getting like a solid starter because he's the 10th highest paid T in the league. It's the same as saying that Ja'Waun James who is in a similar situation at RT vs LT is getting paid like any other solid T.

Again, you are changing the scenario and focus of the disagreement. We were only discussing his pay relative to other solid SS's not his overall worth which will be opinion based.

The safety market is the safety market. The cornerback market is the CB market. In today's NFL, the SS and FS are relatively antiquated terms as most teams do not even use the listing anymore.

Safeties in today's NFL have to have versatility and the ability to play the pass which Amos has done well throughout his career. By your logic, Dix (a traditional FS) is currently playing out of position at SS (Amos' old spot). How can that be possible? Surely, a FS is once and always a FS. The argument loses weight significantly when you just actually think about the complexity of modern defense in the NFL.

Safeties are rated as a whole and not like Tackles. You're trying to create a comparison that does not exist. An LT is more valuable do the fact that the majority of NFL QBs are right handed and have their backs on the left making it harder to roll that way and due to the lack of visibility of a QB.

You cannot compare apples to oranges. They are vastly different (S to Tackle). If you can successfully delineate for me the categorical differences between SS and FS with regards to responsibilities, scheme, etc, and how these differences apply to Amos as being overrated/overpaid for his position, then I will listen to your argument.

Let's make a different interpretation.

Let's say CB1 vs CB2 and S1 vs S2.

This gives us a better criteria for how to evaluate the position.

Fuller vs Prince creates a good example of how this relationship can be valued. Fuller (Tier 1 CB1) vs Prince (Tier 2 CB2).

Prince is paid at 64% of the value of Fuller.

If the Bears had kept Amos and then paid Jackson what they paid Fuller, the relationship would be equitable.

They even create this EXACT scenario with Dix as they will likely cut Prince and use one of their higher draft picks on a younger, cheaper CB with Tolliver adding cheap, productive depth. So the Bears save 5 million at CB and could possible forward some of that cash to Dix if they attempt to resign him.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

https://www.straightforwardsports.net/adrian-amos-vs-haha-clinton-dix/

Going into this most people thought that Amos was a super solid player nothing special but he really didn’t make mistakes. People viewed Haha Clinton-Dix as almost the exact opposite, he made mistakes but he made up for it with his big-play abilities. So far this season Amos has had one interception (against Trubisky), one pass defended and 13 tackles. Clinton-Dix has had two interceptions (one for a touchdown), 2 passes defended, and 17 tackles.
While these numbers are everything we can look to PFF ratings for a little more detail. While I don’t think their ratings are the be all end all of stats they do help give a general idea. They rate Amos as a 72.4 which is considered “good”, and Clinton-Dix at an 81.9 which I think is considered “elite”. I had trouble finding PFFs scale and what they mean but I am pretty sure that’s what they are.

This article is quite old.

At current:

Amos: 70 Tackles (55 solo), 2 Picks, 8 Pass Defended, 1 Sack, 2 TFL, 2 QB Hits, and 0 Forced Fumbles.
Dix: 66 Tackles (54 solo), 2 Picks, 5 Pass Defended, and 0 Sack/TFL/QB Hits/Forced Fumbles

If the season ended today, Amos is matching his career best through 13 games and could possibly surpass some of his numbers in the final 3 games of the season depending how it shakes out statistically.

 

[Bearly]

The safety market is the safety market. The cornerback market is the CB market. In today's NFL, the SS and FS are relatively antiquated terms as most teams do not even use the listing anymore.

Safeties in today's NFL have to have versatility and the ability to play the pass which Amos has done well throughout his career. By your logic, Dix (a traditional FS) is currently playing out of position at SS (Amos' old spot). How can that be possible? Surely, a FS is once and always a FS. The argument loses weight significantly when you just actually think about the complexity of modern defense in the NFL.

Safeties are rated as a whole and not like Tackles. You're trying to create a comparison that does not exist. An LT is more valuable do the fact that the majority of NFL QBs are right handed and have their backs on the left making it harder to roll that way and due to the lack of visibility of a QB.

You cannot compare apples to oranges. They are vastly different (S to Tackle). If you can successfully delineate for me the categorical differences between SS and FS with regards to responsibilities, scheme, etc, and how these differences apply to Amos as being overrated/overpaid for his position, then I will listen to your argument.

Let's make a different interpretation.

Let's say CB1 vs CB2 and S1 vs S2.

This gives us a better criteria for how to evaluate the position.

Fuller vs Prince creates a good example of how this relationship can be valued. Fuller (Tier 1 CB1) vs Prince (Tier 2 CB2).

Prince is paid at 64% of the value of Fuller.

If the Bears had kept Amos and then paid Jackson what they paid Fuller, the relationship would be equitable.

They even create this EXACT scenario with Dix as they will likely cut Prince and use one of their higher draft picks on a younger, cheaper CB with Tolliver adding cheap, productive depth. So the Bears save 5 million at CB and could possible forward some of that cash to Dix if they attempt to resign him.

Except he kinda blows when he's at FS like a RT may at LT which is a position that is also becoming more interchangeable with time. Top rushers now come from either side, like Mack.

Fine, if you want to lump the Safeties together, top 10 of 64 is still top pay and my original point I was just adding perspective by dividing them into strong vs free. Top 10 of 64 is not simply that of a solid player. That was the argument. If you think he's better than that and deserves it, I may not agree but I wouldn't call you on it. That he's only getting solid safety pay is as incorrect as it would be to say that about the 10th highest CB. I guess Gilmore or Butler are only getting paid like solid starters. what the Bears were willing to pay him is immaterial to the convo. You keep going on these long unrelated tangents. That you are right on some points doesn't make you right on the point in question.

 

[circusboy666]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/chicago-bears/

What to do with the Bears up coming free agents will be the next step of the offseason planning. The list below please organize into

-Keep
-No Interest
-Right Deal

Danny Trevathan
Kyle Long
HHCD
Sherrick McManis
Chase Daniels
Aaron Lynch
Bradley Sowell
Ted Larsen
Aaron Lynch
Nick Williams
Cornelius Lucas
Patrick Scales
Kevin Pierre-Louis
Brent Urban
Nick K
DHC
Deon Bush

RFA

Roy Robertson-Harris
Rashaad Coward
Isaiah Irving
Corey Levin
Eric Saubert

ERFA

Alex Bars
Jesper Horsted
JP Holtz

Mcmanis
Lynch
Nick Williams
Nick kwiatkowski
RRH
Coward
I have no interest in anyone else

Must cut
Long
Prince
Gabriel
And reneg Floyd’s 5th year

Not sure about Massie or Leno at this point either

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

Except he kinda blows when he's at FS like a RT may at LT which is a position that is also becoming more interchangeable with time. Top rushers now come from either side, like Mack.

Fine, if you want to lump the Safeties together, top 10 of 64 is still top pay and my original point I was just adding perspective by dividing them into strong vs free. Top 10 of 64 is not simply that of a solid player. That was the argument. If you think he's better than that and deserves it, I may not agree but I wouldn't call you on it. That he's only getting solid safety pay is as incorrect as it would be to say that about the 10th highest CB. I guess Gilmore or Butler are only getting paid like solid starters. what the Bears were willing to pay him is immaterial to the convo. You keep going on these long unrelated tangents. That you are right on some points doesn't make you right on the point in question.

Ranking is irrelevant to actual pay. That is how VALUE is associated. You are attempting to use "rank" as a way to establish "value" when the actual pay is the interpretation of the value.

Your argument is based on a faulty premise and you still have not actually made any good argument defending your original thesis that Amos is overpaid.

But let's continue.

The 10th highest paid CB is not indicative of anything other than there are 9 guys being paid more than that player. That's it. If the top guy was getting paid 18 million and the 10th guy was getting paid 7 million, that does not mean that the 10th guy is being paid like an "elite" CB. You do understand that right?

So I ask once again, how is Amos overpaid? We shall all wait with breathless anticipation.