NFC does look tougher than last year, so I think it’ll take 10 wins to reach the playoffs. Honestly, the best thing that could happen to the Bears, other than winning games, would be for the NFC to simply take a step back like last year.
Sneaking a win out on Sunday really would’ve done wonders. It would’ve allowed the Bears to finish their final 11 games—a really tough stretch—6-5 and still make the playoffs. Now they’ll have to go 7-4 over that stretch.
Even with this subpar offense, that’s actually still doable. But it’s certainly an uphill climb. You all know about the strength of schedule from here on out.
Let’s split this up into groups of games just for the sake of fun fan analysis. I realize a billion things could change between now and the time the Bears play these teams, but this is a message board where we speculate on things. So here we go.
You gotta hope the Bears get pissed as all hell and come out of the gate and beat the Saints in two weeks. If they do that, all is essentially forgiven. They’ll be 4-2 having just won 2 out of 3 from Minnesota, London and New Orleans. Not bad. That’s frankly what I expected them to be after 6 games before the season.
From there, you play the Chargers, Eagles, Lions and Rams. Yikes. You can’t get out of that worse than 2-2. If they could somehow win 3 of those, they’d be overachieving and actually be putting themselves in a really good spot. For arguments’ sake, though, let’s say they go 2-2 during that span.
So now they’re 6-4.
Then comes Giants, Lions and Cowboys. You probably have to win at least 2 out of 3 of those.
Now they’re 8-5.
Win 2 out of your last 3 against the Packers, Chiefs and Vikings.
10-6. Playoff team.
I’ve just outlined above a pretty rosy outlook for the Beloved. And you see how it’s still so difficult to get to 10 wins. This is the power of the difficult schedule. This would’ve been the power of starting 4-1.
Don’t get me wrong. If the Bears miss the playoffs, it won’t be because they lose to the Raiders in early October. It’ll be because they weren’t worthy over the course of the season. London could be a symptom of that, though. That’s why that game was so important. And that’s why the Saints game is fucking HUGE now. The fans, Nagy and Trubisky (and the defense) better show the hell up for that one.
This isn’t last year. When the Bears fell to 3-3 last year, there was still a very reasonable path to the playoffs based on growth and schedule, although we didn’t fully see it because we still didn’t know at that time exactly what we had in this team or the head coach.
But you can’t do that this year. If you’re not 4-1, you sure as shit better be 4-2. If not, that second half schedule can tear the hell out of the Bears.
I’m certainly not panicking. This team has enough talent and guys who believe in each other and the coaching to beat anybody in the regular season. And I do mean anybody. But sooner or later, probability usually wins out, and it’s awful tough sledding from here on out, especially if they can’t beat the Saints at home.
So become huge fucking Chiefs fans from here on out. Maybe if they’re 13-1 going into the Bears game, they won’t have much to play for.
The good news is that this defense is so good that every team I mentioned is beatable. Every. Team. Doesn’t mean the Bears *will* win those games, just that they *can*.
I like to look at seasons like an ink splatter rather than a journey. I understand teams ebb and flow throughout the season, but it actually simplifies things.
Packers
Lions
Lions
Vikings
Giants
Saints
Rams
Chargers
Chiefs
Cowboys
Eagles
There are wins there. But holy shit, that might be tough as hell no matter how you look at it. Offense has got to get better. Defense has got to continue to carry. And some luck wouldn’t hurt.
