Breaking Down Nagy's Playcalling

[Visionman]

Cool. I think if we ask a buncha the Best posters for content on the BEARs to join here, we could get overwhelmed with great content.
OMG that would be wonderful !!!
I'm gonna track down that poster that Adi started a thread about but I think he concentrates on all 32 teams

Overcome the "good ole boys club" by a mass influx of ppl actually wanting to talk Bears football?

All for it!

 

[Bearly]

Was a good breakdown of that series but Nagy can also get too cute. Still an overall great job for a rookie HC.

 

[Toast88]

This is the stuff I love to see in the offseason.

God, I’m ready for Bears football to start back up.

 

[circusboy666]

Yes my main issue with Nagy is he tries to get too cute and out think the other coach. I’d just like him to reduce his risky playcalling slightly. Not eliminate it. Just have the run game rolling, Mitch manage the games with a 2:1 ratio and this team will go deep.

 

[Enasic]

I think Nagy would like to run the ball and get more production on the ground. For whatever reason, it didn’t happen last year. OL and Howard, combined with Nagy not changing the blocking scheme until late in the season were all factors. But I believe, Nagy is going to make it a point to run the ball more and run it more effectively.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Overcome the "good ole boys club" by a mass influx of ppl actually wanting to talk Bears football?

All for it!

You have no apparent "value add" to this forum. Your CCS WAR is like -1.7 this season.

 

[Black Rainbow]

Yes my main issue with Nagy is he tries to get too cute and out think the other coach. I’d just like him to reduce his risky playcalling slightly. Not eliminate it. Just have the run game rolling, Mitch manage the games with a 2:1 ratio and this team will go deep.

I hear what you're saying, but IMO he's not even that risky. Risky to me is going down field more. Like Al Michaels said during two of the prime time games, "There was a lot of window dressing for that play..." All these alternate formations just to run another Cohen screen were he runs outta bounds.

 

[Toast88]

I think Nagy would like to run the ball and get more production on the ground. For whatever reason, it didn’t happen last year. OL and Howard, combined with Nagy not changing the blocking scheme until late in the season were all factors. But I believe, Nagy is going to make it a point to run the ball more and run it more effectively.

Everyone has flaws. Nagy’s is that he doesn’t like to run the ball hardly ever.

I like Nagy a lot, but anyone expecting him to EVER run the ball more is barking up the wrong tree. It’ll never happen. You’re going to be disappointed. He’s always going to revert back to what makes him comfortable—putting the ball in his quarterback’s hands.

That said, saber-metrics are more and more backing up the idea that football teams should run the ball a lot less than they are. I forget the exact number, but the statistically optimal amount of time to run the ball is something like once out of every four plays. Also, never run the ball on Second and 10.

Point being, stats support a Nagy air-it-out approach much more than a John Fox run-three-times approach, although I understand most people would probably want something in the middle.

 

[Bearly]

I don't think it's that he doesn't want to run the ball as much as he didn't have what he wanted in the backfield to do so. Many runs will be optioned but they are still run plays. Depending on the D we may see predominantly run or pass games but I don't think Nagy will be looking to throw on most every down this year. Of course, predominantly run now means almost 50% in the current NFL.

Unlike an earlier post, I do want to go downfield. It changes a D if you can hit some of those. Draw them in and hit em big and vice versa.

 

[Visionman]

And yet even though he didnt want to run the ball and didnt have the RB to do it successfully...he still called a high percentage of run plays.

 

[xer0h0ur]

I don't know why people keep pointing to unique situations as some sort of indicator Nagy doesn't like to run the ball. Even without looking up the numbers just going off memory I would say he has a solid run/pass split. In nearly any game until it reaches a point where running the ball isn't the best approach to winning.

People also have to face the fact that the offensive line did a poor job overall run blocking last season. Nagy would be an idiot to try to force more running plays if its not being blocked up efficiently. There are a few times he gets cute with the play calling sure, but his run/pass balance isn't something I am worried about at all.

 

[HeHateMe]

I don't know why people keep pointing to unique situations as some sort of indicator Nagy doesn't like to run the ball. Even without looking up the numbers just going off memory I would say he has a solid run/pass split. In nearly any game until it reaches a point where running the ball isn't the best approach to winning.

People also have to face the fact that the offensive line did a poor job overall run blocking last season. Nagy would be an idiot to try to force more running plays if its not being blocked up efficiently. There are a few times he gets cute with the play calling sure, but his run/pass balance isn't something I am worried about at all.

I think it's more his inability or refusal last season to utilize a top ten RB and just kick him to the curb.

 

[nvanprooyen]

I think it's more his inability or refusal last season to utilize a top ten RB and just kick him to the curb.

And when he did run Howard, it was soooo predictable.

 

[HeHateMe]

And when he did run Howard, it was soooo predictable.

Yup.

Let's be honest, Nagy completely ****ed Howard's trade value and made Pace look like a ****ing idiot.

 

[Visionman]

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Rushing Play Percentage | TeamRankings.com

NFL Football rushing play percentage , by team.

www.teamrankings.com

According to this site, Chicago ranked #6 in the league with a rushing percentage of 45.17% for the season...

 

[modo]

The bears rushed about as much as they did under Fox. They did it in a different way in that there were more wr and qb runs. I’d say it was non traditional

 

[Starion]

Been covered. Howard was predictable b/c he only runs well. Also does his best work behind a blocking scheme that isn't to Nagy's liking. They actually tried it Howard's way the last several games last year. Howard got more yards & the team scored less points. Bad fit. Simple as that. No sense belaboring it again & dealing out the blame game again (cue the dead horse gif)

Get excited for DM. A great fit that should flourish. An underrated OFF ROY candidate IMO. I put a few bucks on it b/c why not? We'll see.

 

[robertkschmitz]

What's up y'all -- I can't guarantee I'll be particularly active here but I'm more than willing to respond.

Nagy's "inability to get Howard going" gets overblown. He was an outstanding rookie RB who seemed to be able to "just create yards" with his blend of outside vision and power, but fell off hard in his sophomore season. If you point to his 6th ranked 1122 yards, I'll point to his T-20th ranked 4.1 YPC, which in my opinion is dramatically more important than total yards anyways. Howard is a one-system back and Nagy doesn't prefer that system, and in these debacles the Coach will win. Every time. Especially when considering that we're talking about one of the most replaceable positions in football.

Also, I'm well aware that you can't "just break down a coach with one drive", I'm not living in fantasy-land. But I've yet to see anyone attempt to do any deeper study than just saying "he gets too cute" without any evidence, so I figured I'd pick his best drive (my opinion) and show how his playcalling has the potential to affect defenses without needing great individual play. Nobody in that drive does anything particularly spectacular, Howard grinds out a few good runs, Gabriel has a few solid touches, Josh Bellamy and Trey Burton each pick up first downs, and Trubisky throws exactly one "real" pass. With that in mind, it was a perfect candidate for a detailed pseudo-study.

Also, I'm a bit confused as to the criticism of Miller? He was productive, he had a team leading 7TDs and could've had up to 11 had Trubisky hit his marks. Are you of the opinion that he's in Floyd's category simply because he didn't stack up 1,000 yards? You're more than welcome to that opinion, but I think he breaks out in a big way next year. He ran too many good routes not to and got open deep too often -- I think you'll be surprised. Should end the season our WR2, with potential to become the WR1B.

 

[nvanprooyen]

What's up y'all -- I can't guarantee I'll be particularly active here but I'm more than willing to respond.

Nagy's "inability to get Howard going" gets overblown. He was an outstanding rookie RB who seemed to be able to "just create yards" with his blend of outside vision and power, but fell off hard in his sophomore season. If you point to his 6th ranked 1122 yards, I'll point to his T-20th ranked 4.1 YPC, which in my opinion is dramatically more important than total yards anyways. Howard is a one-system back and Nagy doesn't prefer that system, and in these debacles the Coach will win. Every time. Especially when considering that we're talking about one of the most replaceable positions in football.

Also, I'm well aware that you can't "just break down a coach with one drive", I'm not living in fantasy-land. But I've yet to see anyone attempt to do any deeper study than just saying "he gets too cute" without any evidence, so I figured I'd pick his best drive (my opinion) and show how his playcalling has the potential to affect defenses without needing great individual play. Nobody in that drive does anything particularly spectacular, Howard grinds out a few good runs, Gabriel has a few solid touches, Josh Bellamy and Trey Burton each pick up first downs, and Trubisky throws exactly one "real" pass. With that in mind, it was a perfect candidate for a detailed pseudo-study.

Also, I'm a bit confused as to the criticism of Miller? He was productive, he had a team leading 7TDs and could've had up to 11 had Trubisky hit his marks. Are you of the opinion that he's in Floyd's category simply because he didn't stack up 1,000 yards? You're more than welcome to that opinion, but I think he breaks out in a big way next year. He ran too many good routes not to and got open deep too often -- I think you'll be surprised. Should end the season our WR2, with potential to become the WR1B.

Thanks for this post. Just saw it since this thread got buried. Hopefully you hang around a bit

 

[bamainatlanta]

It's almost as if people don't realize how Howard limited the offense. His lack of ability in the passing game is what fucked his trade value the most. This isn't the 1990's NFL. Once Philly realizes that Sanders is their best back and can do everything better than Howard, maybe then the Howard nuthuggers will let it go.