Cubs negotiating with Baez

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1195394529219796993

 

[anotheridiot]

"secured significant earnings"

What an asshole. He spent all his 2.6 million signing bonus on medical bills for Noely.

I guess its a different monster being a poor puerto rican to a 300 million dollar Harper.

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1195394529219796993

Part 2 was more interesting. We mused Shogo in CF with a easier transition with Yu on the team. Well IMO you would figure his main targets would be CHC and LAA. Both team have top end Japanese pitchers. Cubs have a need in CF and LAA doesn't.


On Baez. This was more of a when vs if. IMO it really will come down to $$$ and Baez should sign for Heyward type cash vs Bryant who will go after Harper level pay.

IMHO they should target both Schwarber and Baez as the future locks as they are both most likely not going to command top end pay and will both give solid value for it.

 

[CSF77]

"secured significant earnings"

What an asshole. He spent all his 2.6 million signing bonus on medical bills for Noely.

I guess its a different monster being a poor puerto rican to a 300 million dollar Harper.

Baez has made some cash as a Cub.

Javier Baez 2b
1 year/$5.2M (2019)

• 1 year/$5.2M (2019)
  • re-signed by Chicago Cubs 1/11/19 (avoided arbitration)
• 1 year/$657,000 (2018)
  • re-signed by Chicago Cubs 3/18
• 1 year/$609,000 (2017)
  • re-signed by Chicago Cubs 3/9/17
• 1 year/$512,000 (2016)
  • re-signed by Chicago Cubs 3/4/16
• 1 year (2015)
  • re-signed by Chicago Cubs 3/5/15
• 1 year (2014)
  • contract selected by Chicago Cubs 8/5/14
• drafted by Chicago Cubs 2011 (1-9) (Arlington County Day HS, Jacksonville)
• $2.625M signing bonus
• agent: Wasserman Media Group
• ML service: 4.089

 

[Castor76]

Maybe see if he'd go for 7/142, with a 8/14/20/25/25/25/25. Just over a 20M AAV. That would take him through his age 33 year.

 

[beckdawg]

7/$142 seems a touch high to me. Xander Bogaerts got seven-year $132M. His first few years look like this

2013 - 50 PAs - 0.1 fWAR
2014 - 594 PAs - 0.1 fWAR
2015 - 654 PAs - 4..6 fWAR
2016 - 719 PAs - 4.9 fWAR
2017 - 635 PAs - 3.2 fWAR
2018 - 580 PAs - 4.9 fWAR

Total - 3,232 PAs - 17.8 fWAR where he hit .284/.343/.429.

Baez has 2473 PAs so give or take about a season and a half fewer, 13.9 fWAR and has hit .270/.310/.484. In fairnes the past 2 years he's hit .286/.321/.544 which is basically .861 OPS vs Bogaerts .771. They are kind of different in that regard as Baez is clearly a power bat with bigger on base issues but on average those 6 years Baez is 2.32 fWAR to 2.97 for Bogaerts. The past 2 years Baez is 5.3 and 4.4 so maybe you argue they are closer than that but the final 2 years would be 4.05 fWAR per vs 4.85.

So, to put Baez at a better deal you're basically going to have to argue those 2 years are what he is which seems like a tough ask for me.

 

[CSF77]

I can see 20 AAV. Not 18 AAV.

Numbers are one thing. But let's face it. Javy brings in $$$ for the Cubs right now and he is a franchisee player and very marketable to the international baseball market.

Bogarts really never took off like that.

So this is a chrismatic appeal situation that goes beyond the numbers with Javy. Fans love the guy.

 

[SilenceS]

7/$142 seems a touch high to me. Xander Bogaerts got seven-year $132M. His first few years look like this

2013 - 50 PAs - 0.1 fWAR
2014 - 594 PAs - 0.1 fWAR
2015 - 654 PAs - 4..6 fWAR
2016 - 719 PAs - 4.9 fWAR
2017 - 635 PAs - 3.2 fWAR
2018 - 580 PAs - 4.9 fWAR

Total - 3,232 PAs - 17.8 fWAR where he hit .284/.343/.429.

Baez has 2473 PAs so give or take about a season and a half fewer, 13.9 fWAR and has hit .270/.310/.484. In fairnes the past 2 years he's hit .286/.321/.544 which is basically .861 OPS vs Bogaerts .771. They are kind of different in that regard as Baez is clearly a power bat with bigger on base issues but on average those 6 years Baez is 2.32 fWAR to 2.97 for Bogaerts. The past 2 years Baez is 5.3 and 4.4 so maybe you argue they are closer than that but the final 2 years would be 4.05 fWAR per vs 4.85.

So, to put Baez at a better deal you're basically going to have to argue those 2 years are what he is which seems like a tough ask for me.

Bogaerts got 6 years 120 million with a vesting option. He is being paid 20 million annually with an opt out clause after 2022. Baez is going to want every bit of that.

 

[anotheridiot]

I can see 20 AAV. Not 18 AAV.

Numbers are one thing. But let's face it. Javy brings in $$$ for the Cubs right now and he is a franchisee player and very marketable to the international baseball market.

Bogarts really never took off like that.

So this is a chrismatic appeal situation that goes beyond the numbers with Javy. Fans love the guy.

I think Baez is smart enough to know that dollars will just bring criticism too and that charisma is a guy doing it for the love of the game not the almighty dollar.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Bryant is a twinkle eyed turned lip smirky smiling twat that doesn't want to be here. Let him go play with Hamsters in Philly.

 

[beckdawg]

Bogaerts got 6 years 120 million with a vesting option. He is being paid 20 million annually with an opt out clause after 2022. Baez is going to want every bit of that.

I could see him getting a similar deal. My point was I don't see him getting substantially more. For him to get $10 mil more overall would be difficult for me to see because the first few years are going to be based on arb estimates and i have trouble believing were it to go to arb that he'd get more than Xander would have given their production.

That's not to say one is better than the other. I think you logically can argue the last 2 years of Baez show if he continues he's better. But that's not how arb really works. It's more based on your career to that point.

 

[Castor76]

I could see him getting a similar deal. My point was I don't see him getting substantially more. For him to get $10 mil more overall would be difficult for me to see because the first few years are going to be based on arb estimates and i have trouble believing were it to go to arb that he'd get more than Xander would have given their production.

That's not to say one is better than the other. I think you logically can argue the last 2 years of Baez show if he continues he's better. But that's not how arb really works. It's more based on your career to that point.

I know Cots has him estimated at getting 10M in arbitration this year. Would you feel negatively about the Cubs if they did offer 7/142 instead of 7/130?

 

[anotheridiot]

was Bogaerts ever in the running for MVP?

Different people, different situation. I still think Javy would take a deal like Rizzo took, something that would tide his family and the next two generations over and set them up for life.

Part of what people love about him is partially knowing he is not being paid 20 million. Smart move until he stops chasing that low outside pitch is to keep the dollars down, do something for 4-5 years.

 

[SilenceS]

was Bogaerts ever in the running for MVP?

Different people, different situation. I still think Javy would take a deal like Rizzo took, something that would tide his family and the next two generations over and set them up for life.

Part of what people love about him is partially knowing he is not being paid 20 million. Smart move until he stops chasing that low outside pitch is to keep the dollars down, do something for 4-5 years.

Do you take drugs? You have some wild assumptions

 

[beckdawg]

I know Cots has him estimated at getting 10M in arbitration this year. Would you feel negatively about the Cubs if they did offer 7/142 instead of 7/130?

Maybe? Like I get the attitude that you pay to keep your good players. So, it's not that. But the thing is as we've seen the past 2 years you have to be careful with you money because it's not unlimited. Paying Baez substantially more than a similar SS just to me feels like you're walking yourself back into that situation of over paying players.

None of that is to say Baez is bad or doesn't deserve to be extended. It's simply a matter of having to be smarter with how you hand out long term deals because a million here and there is the difference between being able to do something in FA with other players and having an offseason like 2018

 

[Castor76]

Maybe? Like I get the attitude that you pay to keep your good players. So, it's not that. But the thing is as we've seen the past 2 years you have to be careful with you money because it's not unlimited. Paying Baez substantially more than a similar SS just to me feels like you're walking yourself back into that situation of over paying players.

None of that is to say Baez is bad or doesn't deserve to be extended. It's simply a matter of having to be smarter with how you hand out long term deals because a million here and there is the difference between being able to do something in FA with other players and having an offseason like 2018

But it's not substantial. It's essentially 2 M more than Bogarts got.

 

[beckdawg]

But it's not substantial. It's essentially 2 M more than Bogarts got.

$2 mil a year adds up quickly. For example, would you rather have 2019 Descalso or 2019 Howie Kendricks? Kendricks signed a 2 year $7 mil deal. Descalso basically signed a 2 year $4 mil deal but there's a third year option for $3.5 mil or $1 mil. So you're talking about the actual difference between those two being $2 mil over 2 seasons.

I mean look I'm not trying to make the case that $2 mil a year is the difference between playoffs and a championship but the quality of a bench guy like the example above could very well make the difference between a team making the playoffs and not.

 

[CSF77]

I would lock him up for 10 years. He most likely moves to 3B as he ages and his bat justifies it.

1st 2 years are controlled so those would scale 10/16. Then 20-22 AAV

I doubt that he will get better on the open market with his OBA.

 

[anotheridiot]

Do you take drugs? You have some wild assumptions

No, I have plenty of other ways to be a mental Special person fuckup loser without ever taking drugs a day in my life.

Yet again, another slur by some shit dont stink moderator who should be able to control his typing.

 

[Castor76]

$2 mil a year adds up quickly. For example, would you rather have 2019 Descalso or 2019 Howie Kendricks? Kendricks signed a 2 year $7 mil deal. Descalso basically signed a 2 year $4 mil deal but there's a third year option for $3.5 mil or $1 mil. So you're talking about the actual difference between those two being $2 mil over 2 seasons.

I mean look I'm not trying to make the case that $2 mil a year is the difference between playoffs and a championship but the quality of a bench guy like the example above could very well make the difference between a team making the playoffs and not.

Except my suggestion wasn't 2M more per year. My suggestion was 2M more over 7 years. Bogarts got 6/120. I suggested 7/142. That's 283K more per year.