Cubs negotiating with Baez

[beckdawg]

The question you asked me was would I mad at "7/142 instead of 7/130?" That's $12 mil more over 7 years which is nearly $2 mil. So, I'm a bit confused here now. Suffice to say if if all you're talking about is ~$283k difference in aav I'd have less issue with it though again, I think it's a difficult argument to make that Baez should get more given Xander more consistently has put up 4+ fWAR seasons. Like I initially said think you have to make the case that all you are getting going forward is the past 2 years of Baez and none of the rest and then maybe its an argument. However, I strongly doubt a team is going to work on that sort of stance so if Baez's side is holding firm on judging his value based on those two years I feel like it's going to be a long negotiation and stuff may not happen.

Like the thing is if they are considering moving Bryant right now then Baez would likely be available too especially if he wont work with them in talks. Cubs have more viable SS replacements long term than they 3B. I mean just as an example here they still have Russell at the MLB level, Hoerner who probably starts in AAA with an eye toward quick promotion and Ademan who will probably be at AA. None of that is to say those players are "better" than Baez but if he's going to play hardball it wouldn't shock me at all if the cubs considered moving him as well.

 

[SilenceS]

The question you asked me was would I mad at "7/142 instead of 7/130?" That's $12 mil more over 7 years which is nearly $2 mil. So, I'm a bit confused here now. Suffice to say if if all you're talking about is ~$283k difference in aav I'd have less issue with it though again, I think it's a difficult argument to make that Baez should get more given Xander more consistently has put up 4+ fWAR seasons. Like I initially said think you have to make the case that all you are getting going forward is the past 2 years of Baez and none of the rest and then maybe its an argument. However, I strongly doubt a team is going to work on that sort of stance so if Baez's side is holding firm on judging his value based on those two years I feel like it's going to be a long negotiation and stuff may not happen.

Like the thing is if they are considering moving Bryant right now then Baez would likely be available too especially if he wont work with them in talks. Cubs have more viable SS replacements long term than they 3B. I mean just as an example here they still have Russell at the MLB level, Hoerner who probably starts in AAA with an eye toward quick promotion and Ademan who will probably be at AA. None of that is to say those players are "better" than Baez but if he's going to play hardball it wouldn't shock me at all if the cubs considered moving him as well.

Rus

The question you asked me was would I mad at "7/142 instead of 7/130?" That's $12 mil more over 7 years which is nearly $2 mil. So, I'm a bit confused here now. Suffice to say if if all you're talking about is ~$283k difference in aav I'd have less issue with it though again, I think it's a difficult argument to make that Baez should get more given Xander more consistently has put up 4+ fWAR seasons. Like I initially said think you have to make the case that all you are getting going forward is the past 2 years of Baez and none of the rest and then maybe its an argument. However, I strongly doubt a team is going to work on that sort of stance so if Baez's side is holding firm on judging his value based on those two years I feel like it's going to be a long negotiation and stuff may not happen.

Like the thing is if they are considering moving Bryant right now then Baez would likely be available too especially if he wont work with them in talks. Cubs have more viable SS replacements long term than they 3B. I mean just as an example here they still have Russell at the MLB level, Hoerner who probably starts in AAA with an eye toward quick promotion and Ademan who will probably be at AA. None of that is to say those players are "better" than Baez but if he's going to play hardball it wouldn't shock me at all if the cubs considered moving him as well.

Russell is going to be non tendered. Hoerner has the arm of a noodle and Ademan isnt even on the radar right now.

The Cubs can replace Bryant at third with Bote a whole lot easier than Baez at SS.

 

[beckdawg]

The Cubs can replace Bryant at third with Bote a whole lot easier than Baez at SS.

Not sure I agree with that. Bote's a career 102 wRC+ to Bryant's 139(-37%) and he's probably a worse defender at 3B. If we give Javy the benefit of the doubt for early in his career but also throw out the MVP year as more peak than "realistic" and you go with 2019 numbers as an expectation he had a 114 wRC+. Comparing him to the other SS mentioned is a bit difficult because they are different kinds of players but if we go purely defense with Russell he's a career 87 wRC+(-27%). I don't know how you compare the other two given the uncertainty of them.

Not saying they should necessarily trade Baez and go with Russell at SS. More so just pointing out the gap between Bote and Bryant is bigger than you're letting on. And fair enough you're probably talking maybe $10 mil more annually for Bryant than Baez. All I'm really getting at here is that were it me I wouldn't go crazy to lock Baez up. If there's a deal there you're comfortable with then sure you do it but IMO you are better situated to work around replacing him at SS than trying to replace Bryant.

 

[CSF77]

Bote is borderline AAAA talent. More PA's is just more borderline MLB PA's.

Russell is a superior talent to Bote. He has fallen short of his projection but we are talking about a All star degrade to avg MLB talent vs a avg MLB talent at best.

Bote is good for letting Bryant play some corner OF. He is not everyday talent.

Nico had some nice plays at SS. I just don't believe anyone has seen enough of him to have a educated opinion yet. Not to mention he would be going up against teams that have more info to work with next time.

The smart choice here is Russell at 2B and Nico at SS at AAA. let him master that level before getting a call up vs going up against teams that have the book on him.

The real question is where to plug Happ. CF makes the most sense right now with a shift to LF late game. He has shown enough to be given everyday status now.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure I agree with that. Bote's a career 102 wRC+ to Bryant's 139(-37%) and he's probably a worse defender at 3B. If we give Javy the benefit of the doubt for early in his career but also throw out the MVP year as more peak than "realistic" and you go with 2019 numbers as an expectation he had a 114 wRC+. Comparing him to the other SS mentioned is a bit difficult because they are different kinds of players but if we go purely defense with Russell he's a career 87 wRC+(-27%). I don't know how you compare the other two given the uncertainty of them.

Not saying they should necessarily trade Baez and go with Russell at SS. More so just pointing out the gap between Bote and Bryant is bigger than you're letting on. And fair enough you're probably talking maybe $10 mil more annually for Bryant than Baez. All I'm really getting at here is that were it me I wouldn't go crazy to lock Baez up. If there's a deal there you're comfortable with then sure you do it but IMO you are better situated to work around replacing him at SS than trying to replace Bryant.

Baez is a better bet than Bryant going forward. Boras has proven over and over again that there is no loyality in his clients and that they are guns for hire.

If he wanted to sign an extension he would have done so already. So this will end up a free agent issue in 2 years while Boras is pushing for 1 year to add another year to the pot.

IMO Baez and Schwarber will sign deals to be life term Cubs as would Rizzo. Bryant only would at fair market value. And that is closer to 30 AAV. I will never believe that Theo would go there. Even Tom wouldn't tax payroll in 1 guy. A legit Ace I could see because a ace pitcher can influence a game far more than a hitter can.

 

[SilenceS]

Bote is borderline AAAA talent. More PA's is just more borderline MLB PA's.

Russell is a superior talent to Bote. He has fallen short of his projection but we are talking about a All star degrade to avg MLB talent vs a avg MLB talent at best.

Bote is good for letting Bryant play some corner OF. He is not everyday talent.

Nico had some nice plays at SS. I just don't believe anyone has seen enough of him to have a educated opinion yet. Not to mention he would be going up against teams that have more info to work with next time.

The smart choice here is Russell at 2B and Nico at SS at AAA. let him master that level before getting a call up vs going up against teams that have the book on him.

The real question is where to plug Happ. CF makes the most sense right now with a shift to LF late game. He has shown enough to be given everyday status now.

David Bote 2022 MLB Splits - ESPN

View the 2022 MLB season full splits for David Bote of the Chicago Cubs on ESPN. Includes full stats per opponent, and home and away games.

www.espn.com

Bote stat line says he is no where near a AAAA talent. He was terrible against lefties which seems odd. His line against righties is terrific. There seems to be some weird narrative about Bote. He isnt an all star, but he is solid piece and better than anything Russell has shown in 3 years.

Ive seen enough of Hoerner to see he doesnt have the range and half the arm.

Russell shouldnt be in the Cubs org.

 

[CSF77]

Not enough data on Bote.

80 wRC+ VS L
110 VS R.

1 year of splits like that is not enough to go by. What you can go by is is BB/SO. That is more telling because that shoes plate disapline.

12.4/26.. previous year 9.4/28%. So he has the basic tools to do the job.

3B he down graded 5-> 0 DRS

2B 0-> 4. So this makes more sense over Bryant.

Russell downgraded as a defender but he was not able to prepare properly with the suspension.

This is theory but it affected Kimbrel also. So getting a routine changed and distraction from personal issues and a position change affected him.

You want to argue too much to spend for a UI fine. I'll buy that but going into the season with Bote as the main UI is folly.

My opinion on this. And looking at the data also.

Happ CF
Bote 2B
Russell UI
Horner AAA

Russell becomes a trade chip or DFA. But this is about getting Nico progressing against better talent and him picking up his walk rate.

End of the day Almora and Russell are glove 1st and that means bench players. Use common sense and the answers are very clear.

David being a glove first back up catcher most likely understands basic concepts like this and the value each role brings to the team.

 

[SilenceS]

Not enough data on Bote.

80 wRC+ VS L
110 VS R.

1 year of splits like that is not enough to go by. What you can go by is is BB/SO. That is more telling because that shoes plate disapline.

12.4/26.. previous year 9.4/28%. So he has the basic tools to do the job.

3B he down graded 5-> 0 DRS

2B 0-> 4. So this makes more sense over Bryant.

Russell downgraded as a defender but he was not able to prepare properly with the suspension.

This is theory but it affected Kimbrel also. So getting a routine changed and distraction from personal issues and a position change affected him.

You want to argue too much to spend for a UI fine. I'll buy that but going into the season with Bote as the main UI is folly.

My opinion on this. And looking at the data also.

Happ CF
Bote 2B
Russell UI
Horner AAA

Russell becomes a trade chip or DFA. But this is about getting Nico progressing against better talent and him picking up his walk rate.

End of the day Almora and Russell are glove 1st and that means bench players. Use common sense and the answers are very clear.

David being a glove first back up catcher most likely understands basic concepts like this and the value each role brings to the team.

What? Russell was allowed every baseball activity with the Cubs except 40 games.

Why do people make so many excuses for Russell? The guy hasnt done shit since '16. He has regressed in all aspects of the game.

He also is not a trade chip.

I hate the off season

 

[beckdawg]

Re: Russell

I think it depends on what you're going into the season goal wise. If you're hoping to win the world series then he is probably a non-tender guy or in the wild event of someone really wanting him a PTBNL swap. If however you're just trying to move around pieces in a quasi-quick rebuild year and you decide Baez is worth more in trade than his contract then Ruseell isn't really a terrible option IMO. The reason why is worst case you get his last 2 years with decent defense. A better case would be you get that but he rebuilds some of his value. Either way the eye would be toward either Ademan/Hoerner or a FA/Trade. Just as an example, if Lindor isn't moved this offseason then he's going to be moved after next year or potentially this coming deadline. So, if long term you think maybe he's the guy you want then I think Russell makes some sense as a filler.

To be honest though I'd say the positives i outlined are less than 20% and maybe less than 10% chance of happening. Odds are he's just non-tendered. My only point in bringing him up is it depends on how you approach the season. Like if they are moving big pieces and not signing FAs then it's probably gonna be a down year. Hell, you wouldn't even have to move Baez. If they move Bryant you very well could just view Baez as your starting 3B and the same logic kind of applies.

 

[anotheridiot]

The only reason people want Russell to make more money is that the court forces him to give more to his victims.
Russell is clearly not wanting the guy to figure it all out, both baseball and mental health and become that superstar he has been expected to be without getting some value back.

Sometimes, you just need to walk away and let both sides grow. It would probably take the wife beating classes out of spring training too.