ESPN: Bears to start 0-3

Canth

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Going back and looking at the article again, it really does not make any sense. They talk about how they ran 20,000 simulations, but then they took the result from just a single run to project the entire season. They even admit that they "baked in a little creative license into the details along the way". So, it really is a classic case of a garbage in, garbage out simulation where they cherry picked the single run that gave them the results they wanted to push.
 

bearmick

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Lot of people bailing on the Bears. Just saw another one with us in third place at 9-7, behind the Vikings and Packers with 11 and 10 wins respectively. Seems like everyone is all about Rodgers this week.
 

NorcalBear

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I just want to see Aaron Rodgers throwing his helmet on the sideline in frustration again. I have so much respect for his talent, and even once thought he was up-there for the best to ever play the game. But now I just want to see him pouting and moping more while more Bears convoys run to the end-zone.
Agreed. I was buying the hype that he was the most talented ever etc..but more and more his personality has come thru and things he has said and done.. and it's hard to like him at all. (and i dont mean cuz he plays for rival).. just lost respect for him.. that level of pettiness and bitterness is too off-putting. Esp with family.
 

Bort

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Going back and looking at the article again, it really does not make any sense. They talk about how they ran 20,000 simulations, but then they took the result from just a single run to project the entire season. They even admit that they "baked in a little creative license into the details along the way". So, it really is a classic case of a garbage in, garbage out simulation where they cherry picked the single run that gave them the results they wanted to push.
It took them 1,721 tries to create the most stupid possible mathematical simulation so they could publish it to piss people off and get anger clicks
 

PrideisBears

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I had to look up our schedule. I get skeptical thoughts on the Packers but the Broncos and Redskins? Come on now?
 

jsdomino

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I was worried until I read further and saw they predicted the Cardinals will trounce Detroit. More clickbait.
 

vabearsfan15

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I can't believe I just spent about 8 minutes looking over those simulation results just to see how stupid they were....and boy were they stupid! But I already knew that!
 

Sculpt

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I always knew EPSN was retarded but these idiots actually factor pre season win total into their projection for the season......?
I read that too. It's actually confusing. The way I read it is, they just happen to through in how they predicted the preseason, but that they used their regular season way to playout the 2019 season, which is only one of 20,000 simulations. Why they didn't do the 20,000 and give us the average, I surely don't understand. And that's just my guess of what this article is trying to say, it's not very clear.

Before each season, we simulate the entire NFL slate 20,000 times using the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), our prediction and projection system. In the preseason, it is based on a few factors, including each team's preseason win total matched with its schedule, past performance in all three phases of the game, returning starters and who the starting and backup quarterbacks are expected to be. Altogether that gets us a strength rating for every team, which we in turn use to determine game predictions and the likelihood of one team beating another.

Today, we took just one of those 20,000 season-long simulations -- No. 1,721 -- and played out the entire slate with final scores for all 267 games.
 

Rory Sparrow

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It took them 1,721 tries to create the most stupid possible mathematical simulation so they could publish it to piss people off and get anger clicks
I ran 20,000 simulations of the CCS 2019 posting season...and in scenario #1721, Grimson wins the CCS Poster of the Year Award.

HATE CLICK
 

duhawk96

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JP Hochbaum

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What makes this really stupid are two things:

Using Preseason as an indicator - We didn't play any starters for the most part

THey did 2000 simulations and instead of taking the average outcome of the simulations they grabbed one simulation and used that.

This was obviously just picked for clickbait.
 

sevvy

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We lose to Washington and Oakland? :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
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