First half thoughts

[choyne35]

I somewhat agree with you except on a main point.

Ok I love the idea of moving Kyle down. But not leading off with Heyward.

This is a line up that could work.

1. Baez SS.
2. Rizzo 1B
3. Bryant LF
4. Contreras C
5. Heyward CF
6. Garcia 2B
7. Bote 3B
8. Schwarber LF
9 pitcher.

Well the idea is Garcia, Bote and Schwarber all take walks. And there might be pick up runs at the bottom. Pitcher in general is there to bunt. Then Baez is going to put the ball into play more than not. It is not really about the first up or OBA. It is more about table setting the top.

Almora and Russell are late inning defenders.

DFA Descalso.

Simple enough. Schwarber and Garcia get bumped to hold the lead. If tied or behind they need runs.

Outside of that getting Hamels healthy and Hendricks pitching into the 7th again will impact the 2nd half more than anything.

I wouldn't be shocked with a .650 clip as is if Joe just keeps things static. I get days off I do. Not killing the O.

The lineup will never make sense or be consistent with Maddon as manager. That lineup is different but 5 through 9 I see a lot of strikeouts there. Baez has the speed but is too much of a free swinger to leadoff plus he’s one of the only clutch hitters this year with guys on so I would rather him hit 2nd or 3rd

 

[CSF77]

The lineup will never make sense or be consistent with Maddon as manager. That lineup is different but 5 through 9 I see a lot of strikeouts there. Baez has the speed but is too much of a free swinger to leadoff plus he’s one of the only clutch hitters this year with guys on so I would rather him hit 2nd or 3rd

With out a true lead off you have to think outside of the box. The line up will flip over.

BABIP
Baez .357
Bryant .338
Contreras .335
Bote .315
Heyward: .289
Russell .283
Rizzo .276
Schwarber .267
Almora .266
Descalso .260

So that is the luck part. Baez has scored the highest % of hits when he puts it into play.


Schwarber holds a 12.2% BB but his OBA is at .320 That is too low to lead off but the walk rate is what can be played up. Hitting #8 he is going to get pitched around anyways. I would expect his walk rate to go up to 15% then. But with the pitcher aiming to bunt then it becomes a man on 2B with the top of the order.

So I would approach it as

Baez 1 He is the best at putting it into play and the most success when he does. In this situation a walk just pushes a runner up after the bunt. You really want a contact bat driving that run home.

2. Rizzo I think I will switch up here after looking at it more. .276 BABIP really is below avg but he strikes out at a 14.7% and walks at a 11.7%. That has translated into a .384 OBA. There is a good chance that he gets on base in any AB.

Bryant 3. Best OBA on the team. 2nd best BABIP.

Contreras #4 He is the next best hitter. You could argue #2 or 3 right now on the team.

After that the rest of the line up is more about clean up runs and reloading for the top.

Heyward. 12% BB 17.8% SO .355 OBA .266 BA. So he is doing a bit of every thing and he is taking advantage of the spiked ball this year. It is a good spot for him.

Garcia. Roll with it for now. If they need to change it up so be it.

Bote. .336 OBA and a 10.4% BB rate. It is passable.

Schwarber 12.2% BB and a .320 OBA. He just walks but if that is his focus then that is a good spot for it. If he was pushing a .384 then this topic changes.

 

[Omeletpants]

CUBS WON THE ALL STAR GAME STRIKEOUT CONTEST

 

[SilenceS]

CUBS WON THE ALL STAR GAME STRIKEOUT CONTEST

Wrong! They tied Atlanta who only had two position players. Good try shit for pants

 

[choyne35]

With out a true lead off you have to think outside of the box. The line up will flip over.

BABIP
Baez .357
Bryant .338
Contreras .335
Bote .315
Heyward: .289
Russell .283
Rizzo .276
Schwarber .267
Almora .266
Descalso .260

So that is the luck part. Baez has scored the highest % of hits when he puts it into play.


Schwarber holds a 12.2% BB but his OBA is at .320 That is too low to lead off but the walk rate is what can be played up. Hitting #8 he is going to get pitched around anyways. I would expect his walk rate to go up to 15% then. But with the pitcher aiming to bunt then it becomes a man on 2B with the top of the order.

So I would approach it as

Baez 1 He is the best at putting it into play and the most success when he does. In this situation a walk just pushes a runner up after the bunt. You really want a contact bat driving that run home.

2. Rizzo I think I will switch up here after looking at it more. .276 BABIP really is below avg but he strikes out at a 14.7% and walks at a 11.7%. That has translated into a .384 OBA. There is a good chance that he gets on base in any AB.

Bryant 3. Best OBA on the team. 2nd best BABIP.

Contreras #4 He is the next best hitter. You could argue #2 or 3 right now on the team.

After that the rest of the line up is more about clean up runs and reloading for the top.

Heyward. 12% BB 17.8% SO .355 OBA .266 BA. So he is doing a bit of every thing and he is taking advantage of the spiked ball this year. It is a good spot for him.

Garcia. Roll with it for now. If they need to change it up so be it.

Bote. .336 OBA and a 10.4% BB rate. It is passable.

Schwarber 12.2% BB and a .320 OBA. He just walks but if that is his focus then that is a good spot for it. If he was pushing a .384 then this topic changes.

Well I really hope the roster is different by the end of the month and we don’t have to hope so and so can lead off, I think outfield is the bigger need now along with leadoff of course so I think that’s where Merrifield could address both of those issues alone. He’s also interchangeable since he can play 2nd base also so you really could use Garcia as a trade piece there and play merrifield at 2nd if you go with the more offensive lineup and have Bryant in the outfield or have Merrifield in right with Bote at 2nd until or if Zobrist comes back

 

[Omeletpants]

Injured Andrew McCutchin's wife throws him and all star party even though he couldnt make the game

Video: Andrew McCutchen's wife throws him his own All-Star party at home

Phillies outfielder Andrew McCutchen is out for the season with a torn ACL, but he's still an All-Star in the McCutchen household.

mlb.nbcsports.com

 

[Omeletpants]

Wrong! They tied Atlanta who only had two position players. Good try shit for pants

Cubs should have tried harder to win the strikeout contest

 

[anotheridiot]

Well I really hope the roster is different by the end of the month and we don’t have to hope so and so can lead off, I think outfield is the bigger need now along with leadoff of course so I think that’s where Merrifield could address both of those issues alone. He’s also interchangeable since he can play 2nd base also so you really could use Garcia as a trade piece there and play merrifield at 2nd if you go with the more offensive lineup and have Bryant in the outfield or have Merrifield in right with Bote at 2nd until or if Zobrist comes back

I just wish people would realize that Garcia was waived from Cleveland. Nobody picked him up. He went overseas and was playing in Italy. Nobody noticed. Now he is seen as a trade piece? The game he played at second base he dropped a turn and cost a double play. This is the flavor of the day that is maddening with our fans.

 

[CSF77]

I just wish people would realize that Garcia was waived from Cleveland. Nobody picked him up. He went overseas and was playing in Italy. Nobody noticed. Now he is seen as a trade piece? The game he played at second base he dropped a turn and cost a double play. This is the flavor of the day that is maddening with our fans.

That is why I always post let's see what happens or roll with it for now.

I don't want to doom or gloom a guy but sceptical is called for.

I see him as a SH that can go yard. Eventually the book will be in on him and that is when you see him for what he is. Happ is still playing small ball over that.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

This thread has been beautiful with assumptions and random conjecture. Come on Friday

This one still takes the cake....

So ideally you want to move 2 starter types.

I was thinking Q and Chatwood.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

So I would approach it as

Baez 1 He is the best at putting it into play and the most success when he does. In this situation a walk just pushes a runner up after the bunt. You really want a contact bat driving that run home.

Makes sense. Baez RISP is .317/.367/.659 while Schwarber's RISP is .196/.315/.375, and you previously said of Schwarber:

And I countered with RISP was the core problem this year and Schwarber hitting #1 Limits his opertunity to hit in those situations.

so lets move Baez to leadoff. No wonder Maddon has such difficulty filling out his lineup card every day...baseball logic is so confusing.

 

[CSF77]

Makes sense. Baez RISP is .317/.367/.659 while Schwarber's RISP is .196/.315/.375, and you previously said of Schwarber:



so lets move Baez to leadoff. No wonder Maddon has such difficulty filling out his lineup card every day...baseball logic is so confusing.

If you want the cherry pick try the one that I said that with out a true lead off the need to flood the bottom OBA.

There is no true lead off was the key point.

Schwarber sucks as a lead off. But when you are hitting 2-3 guys with a 85 or less wRC+ and the pitcher he is not the main issue. His opertunity is limited to begin. That is Joe's deal.

If you can find a better method please enlighten us oh great Swami.

 

[DrGonzo]

This ain't no WS team so I'm selling:

> Russel, even if they can't get much for him. At this point it's just better for all concerned for him to have a fresh start somewhere else.

> Almora: Maybe he hasn't reached his ceiling, maybe he has. I promise not to complain if he has a good career somewhere else.

> I wish they traded Schwarber in '16 when someone would have over-valued him. (You can check old threads to verify). I still wouldn't cry even if they don't get much in return.

The Cubs need a pitching prospect or two who might be ready by mid 2020. Do it Theo.

Why is Descalso still here? Waive his ass.

BTW, have we seen the last of Zobrist?

 

[anotheridiot]

Looking for something we can agree on.

Flipping to the all star game yesterday, the Twins SS came up and Joe Fuck said something about, He served an 85 game suspension for PED's last year.

Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, if we cant get Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame, we can at least keep the cheaters who were caught out of the all star game?

Just an idea that might make sense.

 

[CSF77]

BTW, have we seen the last of Zobrist

I think he will be back in Sept if they are in it still. If they are in sell mode why bother.

I do like your post though.

 

[CSF77]

Looking for something we can agree on.

Flipping to the all star game yesterday, the Twins SS came up and Joe Fuck said something about, He served an 85 game suspension for PED's last year.

Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, if we cant get Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame, we can at least keep the cheaters who were caught out of the all star game?

Just an idea that might make sense.

A manager can make decisions like pulling a pitcher way too early or pushing out a shitty reliever just to sway a game towards his bet.

I see it as he affected the people around him with it and it becomes a basic trust issue.

A user is just screwing up himself.

 

[beckdawg]

I mean as usually I could say a lot. Generally though.... bullpen has been better than people thought it would be. 4.20 ERA is 11th in the majors. Starter ERA is 8th at 4.02. Batting has been good(9th in wRC+) but painfully inconsistent with RISP. So, simply put this team is closer to pretty good than people realize. That's the good thing. The bad thing is I'm not sure you can just plug one guy in to fix the problems the cubs have. I think they likely need at least 2 bats with contact rates closer to rizzo/heyward. And the issue is unless those bats are CF/RF and 2B specifically they don't have room to add guys without moving other guys.

IDK honestly. The whole RISP issue doesn't make a ton of sense. I'm sure some of it is contact related but while the cubs are 29th in contact%, the Pads are 30th in contact% and they are hitting .272/.349/.477 with RISP as opposed to the cubs hitting .249/.355/.454. And as you can see the cubs OBP and SLG is actually good but it's just that they can't hit for average. Normally I'd likely shrug it off as noise in the data but it's been an issue for long enough that there's *something* there. Seems likely it's a player or coaching issue but it doesn't make a ton of sense to me that Bryant is 15% worse as a hitter for his career with RISP.

I'm almost inclined to believe it is something to do with coaching because it's not just Bryant like that either. They have a lot of guys who are REALLY fucking patient with RISP. Heyward, Zobrist, Russell, Rizo, Schwarber, Bryant and Bote all have a walk rate over 13% with RISP. However, two of the better guys the cubs have are Baez and Contreras. It's difficult to place a firm conclusion on anything without more than just stats but I'm wondering if they are just being too passive as hitters with runners on rather than attacking. Logically, you're probably going to see more strikes when guys are on base because logically you don't want to walk more guys on. And when you're behind in counts you hit a lot worse.

That's my best guess anyways. If they get that fixed I honestly think they are a way better team than people give them credit for. With that glaring issue they have the third best run differential in the NL and 9th in MLB in a really hard division which is suppressing that some.

 

[CSF77]

I mean as usually I could say a lot. Generally though.... bullpen has been better than people thought it would be. 4.20 ERA is 11th in the majors. Starter ERA is 8th at 4.02. Batting has been good(9th in wRC+) but painfully inconsistent with RISP. So, simply put this team is closer to pretty good than people realize. That's the good thing. The bad thing is I'm not sure you can just plug one guy in to fix the problems the cubs have. I think they likely need at least 2 bats with contact rates closer to rizzo/heyward. And the issue is unless those bats are CF/RF and 2B specifically they don't have room to add guys without moving other guys.

IDK honestly. The whole RISP issue doesn't make a ton of sense. I'm sure some of it is contact related but while the cubs are 29th in contact%, the Pads are 30th in contact% and they are hitting .272/.349/.477 with RISP as opposed to the cubs hitting .249/.355/.454. And as you can see the cubs OBP and SLG is actually good but it's just that they can't hit for average. Normally I'd likely shrug it off as noise in the data but it's been an issue for long enough that there's *something* there. Seems likely it's a player or coaching issue but it doesn't make a ton of sense to me that Bryant is 15% worse as a hitter for his career with RISP.

I'm almost inclined to believe it is something to do with coaching because it's not just Bryant like that either. They have a lot of guys who are REALLY fucking patient with RISP. Heyward, Zobrist, Russell, Rizo, Schwarber, Bryant and Bote all have a walk rate over 13% with RISP. However, two of the better guys the cubs have are Baez and Contreras. It's difficult to place a firm conclusion on anything without more than just stats but I'm wondering if they are just being too passive as hitters with runners on rather than attacking. Logically, you're probably going to see more strikes when guys are on base because logically you don't want to walk more guys on. And when you're behind in counts you hit a lot worse.

That's my best guess anyways. If they get that fixed I honestly think they are a way better team than people give them credit for. With that glaring issue they have the third best run differential in the NL and 9th in MLB in a really hard division which is suppressing that some.

It could be related to him batting #2 and him not getting many opertunites. Then when he gets one it is don't fuck this up.

Then the best 2 are hitting with a bountful feast of OBA and they are used to it.

Routeen situational vs limited exposure.

 

[MDB111™]

That was exactly what I said about Jayson Heyward the past two years. Now everyone in the Heyward circle jerk is saying, Look, now he is finally earning his contract, not just a pep talk during a rain delay. Almora is making what 1/22 of Heywards money and he is not worth keeping around? Peralta wont be pulled for a better defender in late innings?

These are good thoughts, but they cant just dump Heyward. They would need a trade partner. At least with Almora, he has a future worth getting to know on the cheap. Heyward has always had mediocre numbers. I personally never cared either way about the signing.
Problem is Almora sucks too this season. So at the very least, the Cubs have to be on the hook for Heyward. And Almora is just about the only trade piece we have. IMO

 

[anotheridiot]

These are good thoughts, but they cant just dump Heyward. They would need a trade partner. At least with Almora, he has a future worth getting to know on the cheap. Heyward has always had mediocre numbers. I personally never cared either way about the signing.
Problem is Almora sucks too this season. So at the very least, the Cubs have to be on the hook for Heyward. And Almora is just about the only trade piece we have. IMO

I just cant see how he sucks. He is now hitting .264 against righties, his achilles heel. Gold glove defense in center and did the work where he was struggling, supposedly could not be an everday player because he could not hit righties. Now he cant hit lefties and still gets used against lefties.. They let Heyward play daily when he was hitting .220 because of his gold glove defense.
I just cant see getting an old peralta.

Get serious and go for Blackmon, I can get behind that one. They can have Russell, Almora, Alzolay and Underwood.