Pegger
President Stoopid
- Joined:
- Sep 18, 2012
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Hi Guys,
So overthecap.com updated a lot of their effective cap information for each team. Here's the Bears. It has you guys at $7,030,680. Now there are some contracts and items still there that will help:
Retirement
Kyle Long = +$8.1M
Thoughts - This is just another $8.1M that will be added to the cap, so you are sitting at ~$15.1M.
Potential cuts
Leonard Floyd = $13.22M ($0 dead cap space)
Charles Leno Jr. = $2.9M ($7.4M dead cap space)
Prince Amukamara = $8M ($1M dead cap space)
Trey Burton = $1.05M ($7.5M dead cap space)
Taylor Gabriel = $4.5M ($2M dead cap space)
Cordarrelle Patterson = $5.25M ($0.5M dead cap space)
Adam Shaheen = $1.27M ($0.6M dead cap space)
Thoughts - Teams rarely cut all their cap space creating contracts unless they are going through a larger regime change and starting new. Often they are committed to seeing a drafted player develop or the dead cap space associated makes it tough to get an adequate replacement. I've seen some offseason planning that gets people all excited about going after the largest FAs out there, but I want to be realistic. If your premise is based on getting an extra ~$25M+ from cutting 4+ players this is possible, but not plausible.
Let's focus on individual players. These are just my opinions. Let's not get bogged down in this area and I'll try to justify all the moves/non-moves.
GM's rarely want to admit a draft pick or signing was wrong, so I don't see Floyd getting cut or even extended. I'd add, what's the depth look like behind him? The way I see it is if he balls out than either extend him or get a comp pick when he leaves. Overall this is just Pace seeing through a draft pick that has flashed from time to time, which makes sense. Leno and Burton have too much dead cap space, so it's tough to move on from a player especially if the team already has limited cap space. Prince is the largest cap number remaining. I'm a little cautious to make this move because it leaves the team very thin at outside CB. Many are big on UDFA Kevin Toliver, but let's imagine if he regresses a bit (completely natural for a 2nd year corner as teams have some game day tape and gameplan accordingly) and if Fuller misses any time you have very little out there trying to covering WRs like Adams, Golladay, Jones Jr, Diggs and Thielen. There's also Gabriel, but for the amount you guys use 3 WR sets, that he's fairly explosive (4.27 40 time) and that he's had some bigger games. I don't think you can easily replace his production with the $4.5M in cap space you are creating. The most likely meaningful cut candidate IMHO is Patterson. He was on the field a lot, but his production is replaceable. Really liked him as a returner, but that's not really a role you can sink a lot of money into. Shaheen is a shrug for me. Sure he's a bust, but it's not like cutting him creates a bunch of cap space. He may be the best blocking TE you have, so for a small cap hit there's at least that.
IMHO Net savings is $5.25M. That brings you to ~$20.35M
Potential Extensions
Allen Robinson = $15M cap number, some of $13M of that can be recouped through extension.
Akiem Hicks = $11.8M cap number, some of $8.8M of that can be recouped through extension.
Thoughts - Here's where you guys can do the most. Extending Robinson is a must and the fact that you can create cap space in the process is a bonus. I'm thinking you guys can offer a Tyreek Hill type extension. The issue is Robinson's base salary is $10.9M, so you'll have less cap space you can create. Let's say you can create $5M in space from that move. Hicks is probably the best extension option. He's got 2 years left, but little in terms of guarantees. With him coming off an injury season he's probably more inclined to lock in guaranteed money. I'm thinking a 3 year extension (taking him to 35 years old). He probably will be cut in years 34 or 35, but it's a way of lowering his cap impact this season. I'm guessing another $5M can be created from that move.
IMHO net savings is $10M. That brings you to ~$30.35M.
Okay, so you'd have the 12th LEAST amount of cap space and that's making the assumption that none of the teams beneath you are going through the same moves to create cap space. I'd add you'll need ~$5M for the rookie class and will want probably another $5M just as a buffer, so when you look at FA dollars you are closer to $20M. Anyway, that's not great. It effectively removes you from any top QB talk (Brady, Brees, Rivers, etc...). Even if you trade for Cam he's got a base salary number of $18.6M, so that would be your only move of the offseason.
I fully understand this will burst some people's FA bubble. I'm all about trying to help you guys set accurate expectations. I've read a bunch of offseason plans that makes a few fast cuts and seems like you guys are high rollers or thinking you are one high priced QB away from that elusive championship. Really what I'd like is a more realistic starting ground that allows you to focus on more value focused FAs signings.
Maybe this will help, maybe not. Just my thoughts. To open the discussion up, if you only had ~$20M in cap space how would you spend it? Who would you extend and what FAs would be a good fit?
So overthecap.com updated a lot of their effective cap information for each team. Here's the Bears. It has you guys at $7,030,680. Now there are some contracts and items still there that will help:
Retirement
Kyle Long = +$8.1M
Thoughts - This is just another $8.1M that will be added to the cap, so you are sitting at ~$15.1M.
Potential cuts
Leonard Floyd = $13.22M ($0 dead cap space)
Charles Leno Jr. = $2.9M ($7.4M dead cap space)
Prince Amukamara = $8M ($1M dead cap space)
Trey Burton = $1.05M ($7.5M dead cap space)
Taylor Gabriel = $4.5M ($2M dead cap space)
Cordarrelle Patterson = $5.25M ($0.5M dead cap space)
Adam Shaheen = $1.27M ($0.6M dead cap space)
Thoughts - Teams rarely cut all their cap space creating contracts unless they are going through a larger regime change and starting new. Often they are committed to seeing a drafted player develop or the dead cap space associated makes it tough to get an adequate replacement. I've seen some offseason planning that gets people all excited about going after the largest FAs out there, but I want to be realistic. If your premise is based on getting an extra ~$25M+ from cutting 4+ players this is possible, but not plausible.
Let's focus on individual players. These are just my opinions. Let's not get bogged down in this area and I'll try to justify all the moves/non-moves.
GM's rarely want to admit a draft pick or signing was wrong, so I don't see Floyd getting cut or even extended. I'd add, what's the depth look like behind him? The way I see it is if he balls out than either extend him or get a comp pick when he leaves. Overall this is just Pace seeing through a draft pick that has flashed from time to time, which makes sense. Leno and Burton have too much dead cap space, so it's tough to move on from a player especially if the team already has limited cap space. Prince is the largest cap number remaining. I'm a little cautious to make this move because it leaves the team very thin at outside CB. Many are big on UDFA Kevin Toliver, but let's imagine if he regresses a bit (completely natural for a 2nd year corner as teams have some game day tape and gameplan accordingly) and if Fuller misses any time you have very little out there trying to covering WRs like Adams, Golladay, Jones Jr, Diggs and Thielen. There's also Gabriel, but for the amount you guys use 3 WR sets, that he's fairly explosive (4.27 40 time) and that he's had some bigger games. I don't think you can easily replace his production with the $4.5M in cap space you are creating. The most likely meaningful cut candidate IMHO is Patterson. He was on the field a lot, but his production is replaceable. Really liked him as a returner, but that's not really a role you can sink a lot of money into. Shaheen is a shrug for me. Sure he's a bust, but it's not like cutting him creates a bunch of cap space. He may be the best blocking TE you have, so for a small cap hit there's at least that.
IMHO Net savings is $5.25M. That brings you to ~$20.35M
Potential Extensions
Allen Robinson = $15M cap number, some of $13M of that can be recouped through extension.
Akiem Hicks = $11.8M cap number, some of $8.8M of that can be recouped through extension.
Thoughts - Here's where you guys can do the most. Extending Robinson is a must and the fact that you can create cap space in the process is a bonus. I'm thinking you guys can offer a Tyreek Hill type extension. The issue is Robinson's base salary is $10.9M, so you'll have less cap space you can create. Let's say you can create $5M in space from that move. Hicks is probably the best extension option. He's got 2 years left, but little in terms of guarantees. With him coming off an injury season he's probably more inclined to lock in guaranteed money. I'm thinking a 3 year extension (taking him to 35 years old). He probably will be cut in years 34 or 35, but it's a way of lowering his cap impact this season. I'm guessing another $5M can be created from that move.
IMHO net savings is $10M. That brings you to ~$30.35M.
Okay, so you'd have the 12th LEAST amount of cap space and that's making the assumption that none of the teams beneath you are going through the same moves to create cap space. I'd add you'll need ~$5M for the rookie class and will want probably another $5M just as a buffer, so when you look at FA dollars you are closer to $20M. Anyway, that's not great. It effectively removes you from any top QB talk (Brady, Brees, Rivers, etc...). Even if you trade for Cam he's got a base salary number of $18.6M, so that would be your only move of the offseason.
I fully understand this will burst some people's FA bubble. I'm all about trying to help you guys set accurate expectations. I've read a bunch of offseason plans that makes a few fast cuts and seems like you guys are high rollers or thinking you are one high priced QB away from that elusive championship. Really what I'd like is a more realistic starting ground that allows you to focus on more value focused FAs signings.
Maybe this will help, maybe not. Just my thoughts. To open the discussion up, if you only had ~$20M in cap space how would you spend it? Who would you extend and what FAs would be a good fit?
