Sounds like Spotrac is not counting the 15-20 million of incentives that go towards the tax.The Cubs financial story remains the same with one new wrinkle: an unfortunate family situation has left utility maven Ben Zobrist on the restricted list since May 8th. If his divorce continues to keep him out of action – which seems likelier than not at this point – the Cubs could recoup a good portion of his salary (in the neighborhood of $9MM), at least as far as the luxury tax is concerned. This new math could give the Cubs just enough room to make a viable run at Kimbrel. Roster resource pegs Chicago’s luxury tax number at around $223MM, whereas Spotrac puts the Cubs at around $200MM. The latter number puts the Cubs a little more than $5MM shy of paying the luxury tax, but Rosenthal suggests the Cubs aren’t as concerned about the tax in general as they are the $246MM line that incurs the harshest penalties. Whether current spending has them just under the first threshold ($206MM) or the second threshold ($226MM), either valuation of their current payroll ought to leave enough room to make a competitive offer to Kimbrel while staying under (at least) the final tax line. There are, of course, other potential suitors courting Kimbrel.
So they basically are saving 9 mil this year. It really depends if they want to long term or not with him. I could see 9 mil year 1 then a upscale with performance perks. They can cut Morrow easy enough. Strop hits F/A. They have Maples and Edwards. It is something to build around if they chose to go that route.
I just don't see this line of teams going after him. This will end up being a rental for contenders that cost cash vs prospects. Teams that don't want to add payroll and have talent most likely will pass.
All things considered this is a 4 month gig for him. 9 mil basically is 12 mil over a season. That is fair rate for him right now.
As far as competition I see Atl and Mil as the 2 big threats. LAD will be there but that would be a set up job and that is not going to help him cash in next year.
Everyone knows Kimbrels velocity was down (which was why Theo stayed away from Jake) and he gave up alot where the red sox used Evoldi more