It just dawned on me...

[FrankieLyrical]

That Noah Syndergaard was the guy most people called "average" at the deadline and said we shouldn't trade for him. I think he proved that whole theory wrong.

 

[Rise]

Yeah he has developed nicely would love to have him on our team. Oh well, hindsight can be a bitch.

 

[beckdawg]

That Noah Syndergaard was the guy most people called "average" at the deadline and said we shouldn't trade for him. I think he proved that whole theory wrong.

I've been a fan of his since like early 2014. When the talk of trading Castro started he was the guy I always wanted if they were going to move Castro.

 

[brett05]

That Noah Syndergaard was the guy most people called "average" at the deadline and said we shouldn't trade for him. I think he proved that whole theory wrong.

At least on this board most wanted him and thought Castro was worth more than Noah straight up.

 

[beckdawg]

At least on this board most wanted him and thought Castro was worth more than Noah straight up.

Depends when you're talking really. Post 2013 most didn't really think you could give Castro away. My feelings were at that time they were pretty fair. Post 2014 castro had a monster year and I'm guessing that's when you saw more of the posts you're suggesting. And it's really difficult gauging SS value because it's rare that good ones get traded. Trevor Bauer was was some what similarly ranked to Syndergaard was traded for Didi Gregarious who was a no bat SS. Castro was a friggen 2 time all-sta despite his flaws. Ultimately, it's like a pawn shop. Your stuff is worth what people are willing to pay.

 

[Midwaymonster75]

That Noah Syndergaard was the guy most people called "average" at the deadline and said we shouldn't trade for him. I think he proved that whole theory wrong.

"Most people" arent too bright. Thor is an absolute stud and knowledgeable Met fans thought a straight up trade of the two was a loss for us and it turned out to be. The only guy i that would be a fair trade straight up would be Bryant and its a trade that would help both teams immensely for years to come. But at this point neither would make that trade as both guys have established themselves as absolute studs! I think its safe to say barring any health issues for either we as fans can expect Bryant to win an MVP someday and Thor to win a Cy young while both of their teams should win a title or two.

 

[TL1961]

Depends when you're talking really. Post 2013 most didn't really think you could give Castro away. My feelings were at that time they were pretty fair. Post 2014 castro had a monster year and I'm guessing that's when you saw more of the posts you're suggesting. And it's really difficult gauging SS value because it's rare that good ones get traded. Trevor Bauer was was some what similarly ranked to Syndergaard was traded for Didi Gregarious who was a no bat SS. Castro was a friggen 2 time all-sta despite his flaws. Ultimately, it's like a pawn shop. Your stuff is worth what people are willing to pay.

"Monster year" ��

 

[beckdawg]

"Monster year" ��

?

Castro hit .292/.339/.438 with 14 HRs in 2014 which was worth 2.8 fWAR in 134 games. Had he played a full season that year you're basically talking about a top 5 fWAR SS despite his defensive woes. Is that not a monster year?

 

[beckdawg]

"Most people" arent too bright. Thor is an absolute stud and knowledgeable Met fans thought a straight up trade of the two was a loss for us and it turned out to be. The only guy i that would be a fair trade straight up would be Bryant and its a trade that would help both teams immensely for years to come. But at this point neither would make that trade as both guys have established themselves as absolute studs! I think its safe to say barring any health issues for either we as fans can expect Bryant to win an MVP someday and Thor to win a Cy young while both of their teams should win a title or two.

I think you overvalue pitching comparative to how players are actually traded. I strongly doubt any team would trade a hitting prospect the level of Bryant for any pitcher. It's just too risky with arm injuries these days. And don't get me wrong Syndergaard is a player I would like to have had on the cubs but just look at top 25 pitchers the past several years. Here's some top 25 pitchers given 5 years of development

2010
2. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, Nationals
5. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles
9. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
14. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants
17. Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers
18. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays
22. Aroldis Chapman, lhp, Reds
23. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Rockies
24. Casey Kelly, rhp, Red Sox
25. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Blue Jays

2009
1. David Price, lhp, Rays
4. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Braves
7. Brett Anderson, lhp, Athletics
9. Madison Bumgarner, lhp,
10. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers
11. Trevor Cahill, rhp, Athletics
21. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers
22. Chris Tillman, rhp, Orioles
25. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles

2008
3. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
4. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
7. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
8. Franklin Morales, lhp, Rockies
9. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
10. David Price, lhp, Rays
15. Jake McGee, lhp, Rays
17. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays
21. Rick Porcello, rhp, Tigers
24. Nick Adenhart, rhp, Angels

As you can see, it's a mine field. There's obvious success stories like Bumgarner, Price, and Kershaw but then you have a number of guy like Joba who aren't even amazing relievers. Certainly you have hitters who don't live up to potential too but even a guys like Colby Rasmus/Pedro Alvarez who were top 10 during that time frame contributes more than any reliever does. That's the danger with trading for pitching because unless they end up a starter you usually lose outside of rare circumstances where you're Chapman and are an utterly dominant closer.

 

[brett05]

I think once you get to a certain point of success that has been demonstrated repeatable and in the category of the top 200 to ever play the game, the pitcher outweighs the hitter. So for Noah, he's only got this year and I would want Bryant over Noah. I'd probably want Rizzo too. I say probably because I think the Cubs have a lot of guys that can fill in for Rizzo. Other than that, I would want Noah straight up for any guy on the roster not named Arrieta or Lester.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I never saw Syndergaard referred to as "average". At one point a lot of scouts and media types thought his ceiling was as a #3 based on command but even that's been awhile. He jumped from the #54 ranked prospect to the #16 ranked prospect from 2013 to 2014 and this year he was #11. According to a lot of baseball writers the Cubs FO tried hard to pry him away from Toronto before he went to the Mets in the winter of 2012-2013. Considering how they feel about young pitchers and the susceptibility of injury that tells you they never thought he was average. Guys like Peter Gammons and Bob Nightengale had him being traded to just about everyone the entire first half of the season saying that the Mets preferred Matz and had to trade one of them for offense. That was all foolishness. Kid's a stud.

 

[DanTown]

I can't imagine there has ever been a day where Theo would have kept Starlin Castro over getting Noah Syndergaard. Maybe some (homer) fans wouldn't have done the deal but Theo 100% would have. While Theo typically believes in the "tinstaapp", he'd understand that Synedergaard was a more valuable piece and the Cubs would have a very easy time replacing Castro long term with Russell and Baez in the organization.

 

[SilenceS]

I can't imagine there has ever been a day where Theo would have kept Starlin Castro over getting Noah Syndergaard. Maybe some (homer) fans wouldn't have done the deal but Theo 100% would have. While Theo typically believes in the "tinstaapp", he'd understand that Synedergaard was a more valuable piece and the Cubs would have a very easy time replacing Castro long term with Russell and Baez in the organization.

Baez was in no way proven and Castro was coming off a terrific year and signed to a team friendly deal. FO people don't devalue players like fans do randomly.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I can't imagine there has ever been a day where Theo would have kept Starlin Castro over getting Noah Syndergaard. Maybe some (homer) fans wouldn't have done the deal but Theo 100% would have. While Theo typically believes in the "tinstaapp", he'd understand that Synedergaard was a more valuable piece and the Cubs would have a very easy time replacing Castro long term with Russell and Baez in the organization.

So far I haven't seen where Baez is capable of replacing Castro. Castro hits the ball. This lineup already consists of hitters with glorious power and too much swing and miss.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I can't imagine there has ever been a day where Theo would have kept Starlin Castro over getting Noah Syndergaard. Maybe some (homer) fans wouldn't have done the deal but Theo 100% would have. While Theo typically believes in the "tinstaapp", he'd understand that Synedergaard was a more valuable piece and the Cubs would have a very easy time replacing Castro long term with Russell and Baez in the organization.

Last winter the Mets would have done that deal straight up. From everything I heard from national media guys the Cubs wanted two pitchers for Castro.

 

[DanTown]

It's great that NY Daily News was the leader of the "Cubs want two arms for Castro" but that was never for the market for Starlin. While I think Theo is a little gun-shy to trade bats for arms, this is a guy who traded Nomar for Orlando Cabrera because he understands the value of defense at the SS position. While NS struggled last year in AAA, part of that is the Vegas ballpark and you have to remember he was a 21 y/o pitcher in AAA (that's incredibly rare). I can't imagine Starlin Castro had top 20 prospect trade value last year as it defies the point of having prospects.

 

[SilenceS]

It's great that NY Daily News was the leader of the "Cubs want two arms for Castro" but that was never for the market for Starlin. While I think Theo is a little gun-shy to trade bats for arms, this is a guy who traded Nomar for Orlando Cabrera because he understands the value of defense at the SS position. While NS struggled last year in AAA, part of that is the Vegas ballpark and you have to remember he was a 21 y/o pitcher in AAA (that's incredibly rare). I can't imagine Starlin Castro had top 20 prospect trade value last year as it defies the point of having prospects.

Castro was going to finish the year a top 5 in fWAR for a SS and top 3 hitting SS. His defense was also very much improved last year. Castro had a ton of value. He was a proven young player. You have to realize that a top SP prospect fails at a much higher rate than a bat.


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[beckdawg]

Last winter the Mets would have done that deal straight up. From everything I heard from national media guys the Cubs wanted two pitchers for Castro.

And I don't think that is so crazy an ask. I doubt if that is true he was asking for DeGrom and Syndergaard. You were probably talking about Syndergaard and someone like Gabriel Ynoa and there almost certainly would have been other parts involved from the cubs at a lessor rate. Looking through recent trades that are similar you can see that generally pitching is overvalued by fans. Hitters generally bring more back in return and good SS very rarely get dealt. Just as am example here, David Price who is vastly more proven than any of the pitchers we are talking about here was dealt to the tigers for Drew Smyly, Austin Jackson and Willy Adames. Adames is a decent prospect at SS but he's was also at A+ if memory serves not a two time all-star. Smyly was a top 75 prospect if I recall and Jackson isn't even with Seattle anymore after that deal.... so yeah.

After the season castro had in 2014 I really don't think it is that crazy. Castro struggling in 2015 early and Syndergaard not having much trouble adjusting to the majors skews this conversation some in hindsight. Let's not forget that Syndergaard had a 4.60/3.70 ERA/FIP in AAA after 2014. So, t's not as though there weren't questions on him. Obviously that those concerns weren't anything to worry about but it obviously could have been different.