Keith Law Says We Might Acquire Greinke

DJMoore_is_fat

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Keith Law today said Zack Greinke might end up with the Cubs before the dead line. He was awful last year but he's dealing again. I believe he's 33 years old in the second year of a 6 year/$206M deal. So if we get him it would be like 4.5 years/$157M.

Thoughts?
 

CSF77

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Yes. Azl wrecked his numbers last year. Cubs can afford him. Why not.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Keith Law today said Zack Greinke might end up with the Cubs before the dead line. He was awful last year but he's dealing again. I believe he's 33 years old in the second year of a 6 year/$206M deal. So if we get him it would be like 4.5 years/$157M.

Thoughts?
Only if they'd eat some money. Plus I don't think Arizona is going to be out of it at the deadline so they might not even sell. All things being equal, if they go the aging veteran route, I'd rather have Verlander who believe it or not would be cheaper.
 

beckdawg

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Keith Law today said Zack Greinke might end up with the Cubs before the dead line. He was awful last year but he's dealing again. I believe he's 33 years old in the second year of a 6 year/$206M deal. So if we get him it would be like 4.5 years/$157M.

Thoughts?
They'd have to eat probably $40 mil of the deal before I'd find it interesting. You don't wanna be paying a 36/37 year old $35 mil a year.
 

CSF77

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40 mil might be much.

16:$31M, 17:$31M, 18:$31M, 19:$31.5M, 20:$32M, 21:$32M

It would take a strong prospect pack for Azl to agree to taking off year's worth of salary.

My feeling is he is a upgrade to Lester as staff ace. Hendricks slots in as a 3 and then they get a left handed rear of the rotation to go along with Butler.

If you are wanting to get AZL to absorb 30 mil then it will cost De La Cruz. Maybe Schwarber etc.

The Cubs don't really need contract absorbed. They are at 172 mil this year. It drops to 85 mil. Even after arb we are talking a 70 mil wind fall. You could add 30 mil on Grenke and 12 mil to Wade and still have wiggle room to ink a rear rotation lefty for 8 mil again.

So I'm not seeing this whole having to have pay roll absorbed issue. All that does is up the prospect cost.
 

CSF77

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If it was Arrieta for Grenke. Cubs toss in a few mid tier prospects. Azl gets out of that Albatross signing. Cubs get pay roll relief this year by shifting Jake's deal. Azl get a rotation replacement and out of that deal. Jake goes into FA with no QO issue.

Pretty win win
 

chibears55

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Why would they pay him all that money with years at his age and chose to not extend Arrieta last year...

I hope they don't consider this, they need young fresher arms..


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beckdawg

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40 mil might be much.
$40 mil makes the last 4 years roughly a 4 year $100 mil deal. Given he's 33 that's all I'd be comfortable giving him because you generally expect people to fall off pretty hard after 34.
 

Ari Bear

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He's seemed to find his slider again. Though except for a couple of starts he hasnt been that great. 2 years into 6yr 206mil contract. I will pass. At 33yrs he's is coming out of his prime. Gotta think long term here. I say nah.

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Ari Bear

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Why would they pay him all that money with years at his age and chose to not extend Arrieta last year...

I hope they don't consider this, they need young fresher arms..


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Yeah I was thinking the same thing. I rather get some younger arms. Three of our starters, Arrieta, Lester and Lackey are in there 30's.

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beckdawg

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Yeah I was thinking the same thing. I rather get some younger arms. Three of our starters, Arrieta, Lester and Lackey are in there 30's.

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Well presumably if you make this move which I'm not necessarily saying they should but anyways if you make it you don't resign Arrieta and Lackey's probably replaced by Butler/Montgomery next year. You're really just trying to buy 2-3 years until De La Cruz and Cease are closer to the majors.
 

Ari Bear

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Well presumably if you make this move which I'm not necessarily saying they should but anyways if you make it you don't resign Arrieta and Lackey's probably replaced by Butler/Montgomery next year. You're really just trying to buy 2-3 years until De La Cruz and Cease are closer to the majors.
Cease is a beast! Can't wait for him to come up.

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CSF77

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Well presumably if you make this move which I'm not necessarily saying they should but anyways if you make it you don't resign Arrieta and Lackey's probably replaced by Butler/Montgomery next year. You're really just trying to buy 2-3 years until De La Cruz and Cease are closer to the majors.
If you look at it seriously, The only hold overs from the 2016 team would be Hendricks and Lester. They traded for Butler, Mills and Brooks over the last 2 years. All 3 had minimal exposure to the majors. Of the 3 Butler figured it out. Mills was injured so the jury is out. Butler is trash.

So internally they could add Butler and Mills to Hendricks and Lester. If you then move Rob Z into the pen and then push Montgomery into the back of the rotation they could run Lester, Hendricks, Montgomery, Butler, Mills in 2018. Not really a all star rotation but a rotation that could maintain games while depending on the O to spark plug. A rotation like that would be co-dependant on a D like 2016 as all are going to put the ball into play more.

It would be a cost cut 100%. I wouldn't care for it myself. Butler is fine but I would expect a legit ToR to replace Jake.

But it would be replacing Jake and Lackey. Butler already is replacing Anderson. They could go internal but that would be the same as giving up on 2018.
 

chibears55

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Well presumably if you make this move which I'm not necessarily saying they should but anyways if you make it you don't resign Arrieta and Lackey's probably replaced by Butler/Montgomery next year. You're really just trying to buy 2-3 years until De La Cruz and Cease are closer to the majors.
They make this move, either butler or Lackey is gone..
Unless they include Arrieta in deal to give Dbacks a SP and one who an expiring contract..

I'm not convince though that Epstein would either pay a SP 30 mil per from age 34-37
OR
give up top prospects or young major league players for a SP age 34-37 even if Dbacks eat some of that money..

You'd think if their going to give up top prospects or young major league players , they'd want to get back younger controlled SP in return..


That said if their willing to take on the money to save top prospects. I'd welcome a top 3 of Greinke Lester and Hendricks this year..

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chibears55

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If you look at it seriously, The only hold overs from the 2016 team would be Hendricks and Lester. They traded for Butler, Mills and Brooks over the last 2 years. All 3 had minimal exposure to the majors. Of the 3 Butler figured it out. Mills was injured so the jury is out. Butler is trash.

So internally they could add Butler and Mills to Hendricks and Lester. If you then move Rob Z into the pen and then push Montgomery into the back of the rotation they could run Lester, Hendricks, Montgomery, Butler, Mills in 2018. Not really a all star rotation but a rotation that could maintain games while depending on the O to spark plug. A rotation like that would be co-dependant on a D like 2016 as all are going to put the ball into play more.

It would be a cost cut 100%. I wouldn't care for it myself. Butler is fine but I would expect a legit ToR to replace Jake.

But it would be replacing Jake and Lackey. Butler already is replacing Anderson. They could go internal but that would be the same as giving up on 2018.
I'd be ok with 2 of those 3 filling out the 4 and 5 slot but if their going to attempt to contend for a WS in 2018, their going to need another legit TOR to go with Lester and Hendricks..
Assuming Hendricks gets back to being a TOR type starter this year.

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CSF77

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They make this move, either butler or Lackey is gone..
Unless they include Arrieta in deal to give Dbacks a SP and one who an expiring contract..

I'm not convince though that Epstein would either pay a SP 30 mil per from age 34-37
OR
give up top prospects or young major league players for a SP age 34-37 even if Dbacks eat some of that money..

You'd think if their going to give up top prospects or young major league players , they'd want to get back younger controlled SP in return..


That said if their willing to take on the money to save top prospects. I'd welcome a top 3 of Greinke Lester and Hendricks this year..

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The only way it makes sense if it they trade Jake for Zach. Cubs toss in 2 prospects. Jacob Hannemann and Bryan Hudson. (for argument sake)

That puts the rotation at Grenke, Lester, Hendricks, Butler and open

The 5th spot would be under competition between Mills and Montgomery.

Adding Zach would push 2018's committed payroll to 105 mil. They would have Edwards, Strop, Grimm, Rondon in the pen. So prioritising Wade should be the first extension. Pierce Johnson looks MLB ready with Rob Z. So the pen could use another arm if Edwards does not put himself into the set up role. If they did resign Wade it would be Wade, Rondon, Edwards with Johnson and maybe Cory Black if he returns.

So as a min they need to resign Wade. Arb cases could get sticky with Bryant and super 2. They may want to lock him up in the off season.

Over all by adding Grenke it affect next year little. It starts to become a issue in 2021 when Russell and Bryant are in their walk years. But that is Grenke's walk year also. By that time they may bring in a whole new team and do another rebuild.

Even Lester's last year is 2021 so it seems that is the winning window that they are pushing. Thus Zach fits into it. So it makes sense.
 

Parade_Rain

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Only if they'd eat some money. Plus I don't think Arizona is going to be out of it at the deadline so they might not even sell. All things being equal, if they go the aging veteran route, I'd rather have Verlander who believe it or not would be cheaper.
Add to it all the Kate Upton sightings at Wrigley!
 

CSF77

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Add to it all the Kate Upton sightings at Wrigley!
last year may have been a fluke for him. His early numbers are looking 2014 again. FiP: 3.94. WHIP: 1.43 4.7 BB/9. He is a #4 at best. Lackey is putting up better numbers right now. He would just be Lackey all over again of the tenure. Sure if that is what you want but he is not Jake.

Again I really don't see the need to short change things. Lackey: $16,000,000, Arrieta: $15,637,500, Montero $14,000,000, Davis, Wade 10,000,000, Jay: 8,000,000, Uehara, Koji 6,000,000, Anderson 3,500,000, Duesing: 2,000,000

That is 75 mil falling off the books. and for some reason we want them to save a few mil? Really?
 

Parade_Rain

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last year may have been a fluke for him. His early numbers are looking 2014 again. FiP: 3.94. WHIP: 1.43 4.7 BB/9. He is a #4 at best. Lackey is putting up better numbers right now. He would just be Lackey all over again of the tenure. Sure if that is what you want but he is not Jake.

Again I really don't see the need to short change things. Lackey: $16,000,000, Arrieta: $15,637,500, Montero $14,000,000, Davis, Wade10,000,000, Jay: 8,000,000, Uehara, Koji 6,000,000, Anderson 3,500,000, Duesing: 2,000,000

That is 75 mil falling off the books. and for some reason we want them to save a few mil? Really?
I posted about Kate Upton.
 
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