Kris Bryant thread

[anotheridiot]

I'm pretty sure that the Braves are one of the two. But Theo is over pricing Bryant with out the knowledge of the grevance complete. Austin Riley should be on the table as the return. He was the guy that was supposed to be the future 3B and A.A. didn't trust it.

Another issue is KB has degraded as a 3B in DRS. (3,4,1, -2,-7) So teams are also seeing him becoming a 1B or a corner OF sooner than later.

When Donaldson comes off the board and Bryant is a 1 or 2 year but then something should play out.

This is another option if a team wants control for a heavy payment.

Rockies "Willing To Listen" On Nolan Arenado

The Rockies are "willing to listen" to trade proposals regarding third baseman Nolan Arenado, according to Jon Heyman of MLB …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Yeah, thats why you cant say the Angels will be out on Bryant now. It depends on whether getting paid is going to get him to settle elsewhere.

I just hope Ross leaves him at one position this year, other than some spot games he might sub for Rizzo. Then see how much the bouncing around did for his shoulder and to his hitting.

When they said the cubs offered the extention at 200, I did not take that as 200 even, I took it as not 300, so 245 might have been settled on unless he is looking for that 10 year deal.

 

[CSF77]

Yeah, thats why you cant say the Angels will be out on Bryant now. It depends on whether getting paid is going to get him to settle elsewhere.

I just hope Ross leaves him at one position this year, other than some spot games he might sub for Rizzo. Then see how much the bouncing around did for his shoulder and to his hitting.

When they said the cubs offered the extention at 200, I did not take that as 200 even, I took it as not 300, so 245 might have been settled on unless he is looking for that 10 year deal.

Angles need a SP more than anything then bull pen help. A good chunk of their fan base is not behind Rendon they were behind Cole because the staff sucks even if Otanhi comes back to ace levels. I expect 100 IP and shut down as a DH on year 1.

That resource would have been better utilized enforcing a Shakey pitching staff top to bottom.

 

[knoxville7]

Angles need a SP more than anything then bull pen help. A good chunk of their fan base is not behind Rendon they were behind Cole because the staff sucks even if Otanhi comes back to ace levels. I expect 100 IP and shut down as a DH on year 1.

That resource would have been better utilized enforcing a Shakey pitching staff top to bottom.

So you’re saying a trade involving Q perhaps?

 

[CSF77]

Right now teams aren't going to get Bryant until his service time issue is resolved. The prospect haul between 1-2 years of control will be quite different.

But I see the Braves as the best option as we can get two starting pitchers and a 3b prospect in return.

Braves might knee jerk. I honestly believe that they don't want to trust Riley as a cornerstone. Donaldson ends up working it out as he wants to be there. Riley sticks in LF.

If I had to bet 60% chance status que and Bryant's D continues to degrade to the point that they move him to RF mid season. That way they can sell him as a avg to above avg D and power RF to the market on a 1 year.

Even then extending Bryant as a RF is less of a reach than a 3B. D wise Bryant covers ground. His issue is his first step. Even as a runner he has been known to have excellent catch up speed in his Baserunning. But he is not known as a strong base stealer.

This ties to reaction speed and twitch fibers. He is a tall guy and his body is more apt to chase speed vs 1st reactions as he ages.

 

[CSF77]

So you’re saying a trade involving Q perhaps?


And no. Sure it would be nice and all but takes 2 to tango. I just don't see team lining up on that for anything other than trash in return so the Cubs can get a payroll relief.

The Cubs are going in 1 arm short as is. I don't see the wisdom in dealing from weakness.

But dealing Chatwood to them and then they re-establish him as a starter yes I can buy that. Cubs most likely will go with Mills as the 5. No reason to have 2 loose cannons on opening day.

 

[knoxville7]

So you’re saying a trade involving Q perhaps?


And no. Sure it would be nice and all but takes 2 to tango. I just don't see team lining up on that for anything other than trash in return so the Cubs can get a payroll relief.

The Cubs are going in 1 arm short as is. I don't see the wisdom in dealing from weakness.

But dealing Chatwood to them and then they re-establish him as a starter yes I can buy that. Cubs most likely will go with Mills as the 5. No reason to have 2 loose cannons on opening day.

It was said very tongue and cheek...not meant to be a serious comment

 

[fatbeard]

-7 DRS is a huge eyesore

I guess it's an "eyesore" if you're intent on misusing DRS and ignoring the entire body of Bryant's career defensive work.

 

[CSF77]

I guess it's an "eyesore" if you're intent on misusing DRS and ignoring the entire body of Bryant's career defensive work.

I did post this numbers. DRS. (3,4,1, -2,-7)

That is a degrading skill set.

You can go back to your rosy colored glasses now. Cubby Koolaid is to the left.

 

[fatbeard]

I did post this numbers. DRS. (3,4,1, -2,-7)

That is a degrading skill set.

You can go back to your rosy colored glasses now. Cubby Koolaid is to the left.

LOL, you don't understand DRS, it's fidelity, and what counts as statistically significant deviations. You're misidentifying random statistical noise as trend. This is hobo-tier analysis.

 

[CSF77]

Via fansgraph

The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry. In general, DRS isn’t perfect because it doesn’t factor in shifts, positioning, and can’t perfectly measure everything it needs to, but it’s still among the best options out there.

 

[CSF77]

The reality is that he was a avg or above avg 3B and now he is worse than avg. And it has not been this 1 year eyesore. It has been a down trend over a few years

I'm not really sure that you understand the metric myself. It not a perfect tool but given we are looking at a large body of work vs a small sample it reflects a honest evaluation.

Again go back to your rosy colored glasses and Kubby Koolade. It makes everything better.

 

[fatbeard]

The reality is that he was a avg or above avg 3B and now he is worse than avg. And it has not been this 1 year eyesore. It has been a down trend over a few years

I'm not really sure that you understand the metric myself. It not a perfect tool but given we are looking at a large body of work vs a small sample it reflects a honest evaluation.

Again go back to your rosy colored glasses and Kubby Koolade. It makes everything better.

Me pointing out that you're badly misinterpreting the data isn't "drinking Kubby Koolade," it's just you being dumb. Certainly not the first time that's happened with you and DRS in particular, which you like to use as a convenient little tool to craft whatever narrative you want about a certain player, referencing it when you want and completely ignoring it when it doesn't suit you. So let's not pretend like we haven't seen this behavior from you before, mkay?

Now, when we look at Bryant's defensive metrics, he's basically an average defender who had one outlier year where he was notably below average, which was last year's -7 DRS. The rest of his years were all within the same range and within normal fluctuations, because, as you've adeptly ignored from the very DRS definition you posted, "defense is quite variable." Moreover, the Cubs entire defense suffered in 2019 and we know that many players attributed this to too many individualized routines under Maddon. Bryant hasn't suffered any major injuries that would hinder him defensively, so there's literally no reason to believe -7 DRS is somehow a "trend". Want more? Look at his UZR and UZR/150. It essentially maps to exactly what I've described: Bryant is an average defender who goes through normal fluctuations in defense year-to-year.

So really, the only "trend" here is you abusing statistics that you clearly don't understand.

 

[anotheridiot]

He was way above average when he was a third baseman only. I keep saying you take these men for granted, just because you had to stay on maddens sack and agree with everything he did. These multi millionaires do not want to be treated like little leaguers playing every position. You spend half your fielding drill time at third and half in the outfield, probably more outfield than third and what is expected?

 

[CSF77]

Me pointing out that you're badly misinterpreting the data isn't "drinking Kubby Koolade," it's just you being dumb. Certainly not the first time that's happened with you and DRS in particular, which you like to use as a convenient little tool to craft whatever narrative you want about a certain player, referencing it when you want and completely ignoring it when it doesn't suit you. So let's not pretend like we haven't seen this behavior from you before, mkay?

Now, when we look at Bryant's defensive metrics, he's basically an average defender who had one outlier year where he was notably below average, which was last year's -7 DRS. The rest of his years were all within the same range and within normal fluctuations, because, as you've adeptly ignored from the very DRS definition you posted, "defense is quite variable." Moreover, the Cubs entire defense suffered in 2019 and we know that many players attributed this to too many individualized routines under Maddon. Bryant hasn't suffered any major injuries that would hinder him defensively, so there's literally no reason to believe -7 DRS is somehow a "trend". Want more? Look at his UZR and UZR/150. It essentially maps to exactly what I've described: Bryant is an average defender who goes through normal fluctuations in defense year-to-year.

So really, the only "trend" here is you abusing statistics that you clearly don't understand.

What it is saying is you can not take Happ at 3B or Nico at SS and define his quality of D. It takes a larger pool of data.

You are trying to take that statement and twist it to your own interests

 

[fatbeard]

What it is saying is you can not take Happ at 3B or Nico at SS and define his quality of D. It takes a larger pool of data.

You are trying to take that statement and twist it to your own interests

Don't hurt your back moving those goalposts. They look heavy.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

As we are hopefully getting closer to the resolution of Bryant's grievance, maybe it's time to discuss what y'all would be satisfied getting back for KB in trade, what you would plainly be dissatisfied with, and what you think would cause a heaving mob of Cub fans, armed with pitchforks and torches, to storm Theo's house...?

Me, if he has to be traded, I'd love to see him go to the Royals for Whit Merrifield and their best minor league pitcher. Maybe a second pitcher tossed in, just to make it even. This assumes two full years of control, i.e. that the grievance is denied.

I'm recalling that Merrifield signed a new contract last year, right when a lot of people thought he was going to go at the trade deadline. Is my memory playing tricks again? Because that would make this a decent trade.

I figure it solves CF and lead-off for several years to come, and we have plenty of in-house talent to play third base effectively.

-Doug

 

[Castor76]

It of course depends on who he's traded to. If the Angels are the team, I'd hope for Jo Adell and some pitching. I think mostly it should bring back 1 player who has solid player/star grade along with at least on other promising piece and maybe a toss in.

I could get a convoluted 4 team trade in that would reshape the futures of each team, but this isn't really the place for that kind of post.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

It of course depends on who he's traded to. If the Angels are the team, I'd hope for Jo Adell and some pitching. I think mostly it should bring back 1 player who has solid player/star grade along with at least on other promising piece and maybe a toss in...

Exactly my thoughts. And I have to say, the rumors of the Atlanta trade, with all AA and AAA players coming back. an infielder who maybe can convert to an outfielder, and three pitchers only one of whom has ever pitched in the majors... makes me feel like we're talking Brock for Broglio. Need to get a serious major leaguer back. Not a journeyman, need to get someone who could crack the starting lineup on any team in the league. Because that's less than what we're giving up. And pitchers who haven't even pitched an inning at AAA yet, much less the majors, are WAY too much of a crapshoot to give up a Hall of Famer for.

If you're going into a full rebuild, then that makes sense. But if you do that, you *have to* also trade Rizzo and Baez and Contreras, and clean out everyone's farm systems. You can win championships that way. But it would mean two to five years of 100 loss seasons, which the Cubs fanbase won't tolerate right now, I don't think, and it may not net a *single* pitcher who will ever pitch an inning for the Chicago Cubs. And I don't think it's necessary to panic and go into full rebuild right now.

If you trade a Hall of Famer for a bunch of AA and AAA arms hoping you're going to get three aces out of it... you will likely not even get anyone who will crack the major league club. ANY major league club. And you'll be tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail.

I don't think Theo's MO is all that bad, developing hitters and trading for established pitchers. Every champion this decade has done it that way. Trading away your established superstars for AA and AAA arms is a great way to trade away huge value for a bunch of names no Cubs fan will ever hear announced, and ensure it will be *another* 108 years before the Cubs win it all.

-Doug

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Just reported on MLB Network: Kris Bryant has lost his grievance.

FINALLY got the ruling.

-Doug

 

[CSF77]

MLB rumors: Cubs’ Kris Bryant to Yankees in out-of-nowhere trade?

The Chicago Cubs seem willing to trade third baseman Kris Bryant, the 2016 National League MVP, and the New York Yankees could be a fascinating landing spot.

www.nj.com