Kyle Schwarber's 2nd half

[beckdawg]

I'm not sure how much this has been brought up since I kinda ghosted the board when things became slowly evident that the team may not have the goods. Regardless, I wanted to talk about Schwarber's 2nd half. We've talked about him getting better for several years now and I know people get tired of that sort of stuff. But I've been saying this for awhile now and it doesn't take much to make Schwarber into a very scary hitter. And he's largely made the changes I was talking about.

To that end, he's hitting .281/.367/.634 with a 10.5%/21.5% bb/k rate and a 152 wRC+ over 256 2nd half PAs. He's done this with a BABIP of .287. Before I talk about the numbers I want to give some context. There's 6 hitters in baseball with a better wRC+ than 152 and they are Trout, Yellich, Bregman, Nelson Cruz, Bellinger, and Rendon. His .634 slugging would be 4th behind Yelich Trout and Cruz. So, to say he's been good would be an understatement.

As far as the "why" of it all, the biggest thing is that K rate. This isn't me working stats to field an argument so much as just how baseball functions. What I mean by that is we know Schwarber has BABIP issues. Even in this good period he's below the average of .300 and for the season and his career his BABIP is .276 and .273. Point here being, the dude is going to get out more than a typical player on balls in play. That means strike outs hurt him comparatively more than an average player because he has less room for error on balls in play hence why his batting average has always been kind of shitty despite being a decent player in terms of OBP and power. I've been saying since he debuted that I didn't believe long term he'd be this kind of K machine. The reason why is because in the minors he struck out 21.2% of the time and unsurprisingly he was a monster bat in the minors as he appears to be in the 2nd half of this season.

Another issue we've talked about with regard to Schwarber is his inability to hit LHP. Yet again I have said in the past that I didn't think it would be a problem long term because it wasn't really an issue for him in the minors. For what it's worth, in the 2nd half he is hitting .240/.309/.500 with a 7.3%/30.9% bb/k and a 106 to go with a .300 BABIP. Those numbers don't look great until you consider what his numbers for his career were. For his career they are .198/.302/.356 12.3%/33.4% and a 76 wRC+ with a .277 BABIP. Now none of this is to say the 2nd half numbers vs LHP are amazing. But again for some context, if you compare him to say Rizzo you're talking about Rizzo hitting .250/.371/.435 for a 115 wRC+. Rizzo is a .307/.416/.546 and 150 wRC+ vs RHP. Schwarber vs RHP in the 2nd half is hitting .293/.383/.672 with a 11.4%/18.9% bb/k and a 165 wRC+ to go with his .283 BABIP.

So, while I would argue he still has some work to do improvement wise vs LHP... he's not far off from being a very very scary hitter and I really hope the cubs attempt to lock him up long term before he potentially breaks out next season.

 

[Omeletpants]

Great post. His second half has made me change my mind on him somewhat and wonder if the can continue. If he can there is no reason to trade him except his future pending weight gain

 

[anotheridiot]

Great post. His second half has made me change my mind on him somewhat and wonder if the can continue. If he can there is no reason to trade him except his future pending weight gain

I think this statement on weight goes for Rizzo as well.

Still wish the new manager considers giving him a starter next year before its really too late to catch again.

 

[Spunky Porkstacker]

Great post. His second half has made me change my mind on him somewhat and wonder if the can continue. If he can there is no reason to trade him except his future pending weight gain

So would you recommend @Spartan's keto or Jenny Craig?

 

[SilentLurker]

Career year? Has the guy ever got a big hit post 2016? Maybe but nothing comes to mind.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure how much this has been brought up since I kinda ghosted the board when things became slowly evident that the team may not have the goods. Regardless, I wanted to talk about Schwarber's 2nd half. We've talked about him getting better for several years now and I know people get tired of that sort of stuff. But I've been saying this for awhile now and it doesn't take much to make Schwarber into a very scary hitter. And he's largely made the changes I was talking about.

To that end, he's hitting .281/.367/.634 with a 10.5%/21.5% bb/k rate and a 152 wRC+ over 256 2nd half PAs. He's done this with a BABIP of .287. Before I talk about the numbers I want to give some context. There's 6 hitters in baseball with a better wRC+ than 152 and they are Trout, Yellich, Bregman, Nelson Cruz, Bellinger, and Rendon. His .634 slugging would be 4th behind Yelich Trout and Cruz. So, to say he's been good would be an understatement.

As far as the "why" of it all, the biggest thing is that K rate. This isn't me working stats to field an argument so much as just how baseball functions. What I mean by that is we know Schwarber has BABIP issues. Even in this good period he's below the average of .300 and for the season and his career his BABIP is .276 and .273. Point here being, the dude is going to get out more than a typical player on balls in play. That means strike outs hurt him comparatively more than an average player because he has less room for error on balls in play hence why his batting average has always been kind of shitty despite being a decent player in terms of OBP and power. I've been saying since he debuted that I didn't believe long term he'd be this kind of K machine. The reason why is because in the minors he struck out 21.2% of the time and unsurprisingly he was a monster bat in the minors as he appears to be in the 2nd half of this season.

Another issue we've talked about with regard to Schwarber is his inability to hit LHP. Yet again I have said in the past that I didn't think it would be a problem long term because it wasn't really an issue for him in the minors. For what it's worth, in the 2nd half he is hitting .240/.309/.500 with a 7.3%/30.9% bb/k and a 106 to go with a .300 BABIP. Those numbers don't look great until you consider what his numbers for his career were. For his career they are .198/.302/.356 12.3%/33.4% and a 76 wRC+ with a .277 BABIP. Now none of this is to say the 2nd half numbers vs LHP are amazing. But again for some context, if you compare him to say Rizzo you're talking about Rizzo hitting .250/.371/.435 for a 115 wRC+. Rizzo is a .307/.416/.546 and 150 wRC+ vs RHP. Schwarber vs RHP in the 2nd half is hitting .293/.383/.672 with a 11.4%/18.9% bb/k and a 165 wRC+ to go with his .283 BABIP.

So, while I would argue he still has some work to do improvement wise vs LHP... he's not far off from being a very very scary hitter and I really hope the cubs attempt to lock him up long term before he potentially breaks out next season.

You could have said yard 38 and I would have been good with it.

Nice post.

 

[DanTown]

The problem with arbitrary end point data evaluation is that unless you know that the end point you're evaluating has actual significance to what you're seeing, it's just data and noise. What I mean by that is that if we do not have a change in hitting either via video or via some interview where he talks about spending the ASB trying to change his approach, we're just looking at data. That gets dangerously close to the Wyatt Earp Effect in terms of it's not unlikely that one (if not more) Cubs hitter would have a good second half.

Also, let's look at Kyle's K rate by month

Mar/Apr - 29.7%
May - 27.7%
June - 26.1%
July - 19.5% (with a .151 BABIP)
August - 22.5%
September - 26.7%

It's hard for me to argue that his lower K rate isn't anything but a random decent stretch of contact in July because if his K rate was truly lowering as time progresses as the argument supposes, he likely wouldn't have a large spike in K's in September. Additionally, his lower K rate came in his worth hitting month (July) and his September K rate was 26.6% but also watched him slug .681% so while I appreciate data, I reject the premise.

 

[DB012031]

The problem with arbitrary end point data evaluation is that unless you know that the end point you're evaluating has actual significance to what you're seeing, it's just data and noise. What I mean by that is that if we do not have a change in hitting either via video or via some interview where he talks about spending the ASB trying to change his approach, we're just looking at data. That gets dangerously close to the Wyatt Earp Effect in terms of it's not unlikely that one (if not more) Cubs hitter would have a good second half.

Also, let's look at Kyle's K rate by month

Mar/Apr - 29.7%
May - 27.7%
June - 26.1%
July - 19.5% (with a .151 BABIP)
August - 22.5%
September - 26.7%

It's hard for me to argue that his lower K rate isn't anything but a random decent stretch of contact in July because if his K rate was truly lowering as time progresses as the argument supposes, he likely wouldn't have a large spike in K's in September. Additionally, his lower K rate came in his worth hitting month (July) and his September K rate was 26.6% but also watched him slug .681% so while I appreciate data, I reject the premise.

Its also important to look at a major data point that no one is really talking about with Kyle, especially the 2nd half of the year...His place in the line-up.

• Pre Nick coming over from Detroit, Kyle had 200+ AB's in the lead off position, mostly with the pitcher batting 9th. Because Kyle had such a drastic shift played on him, and with lack of runners on base, he hit into the shift regularly.
• However, and there are some STAT Cast stat's to back this up, with men on infront of kyle since was hitting in that 3-5 Batting order range, teams cannot play the shift as much, therefore several balls that would normally be outs are now base hits. When the shift isn't played against Kyle, his batting average increases by 50 points. This is a big deal.

 

[Steve_A]

Its also important to look at a major data point that no one is really talking about with Kyle, especially the 2nd half of the year...His place in the line-up.

• Pre Nick coming over from Detroit, Kyle had 200+ AB's in the lead off position, mostly with the pitcher batting 9th. Because Kyle had such a drastic shift played on him, and with lack of runners on base, he hit into the shift regularly.
• However, and there are some STAT Cast stat's to back this up, with men on infront of kyle since was hitting in that 3-5 Batting order range, teams cannot play the shift as much, therefore several balls that would normally be outs are now base hits. When the shift isn't played against Kyle, his batting average increases by 50 points. This is a big deal.

Great stat.
Love Schwarber for the guy he is.
Hope they don’t trade him.

 

[CSF77]

It accually makes a statement for a spray hitter like Nico leading off. Should be an interesting decision process this off season.

I would be happy if they take a flyer on Scooter Gennett at a discount as a fall back lead off but let Nico try to make it so.

 

[Steve_A]

It accually makes a statement for a spray hitter like Nico leading off. Should be an interesting decision process this off season.

I would be happy if they take a flyer on Scooter Gennett at a discount as a fall back lead off but let Nico try to make it so.

Gennett or Howie as a veteran bat?

 

[CSF77]

Gennett or Hendricks as a veteran bat?

Hendricks?

Not sure of your meaning here.

My opinion is go after a trade to bring back a CF that plays plus D and hits from the left. Shoot if Billy H signed a 5M deal to platoon with Almora hitting #9 I'm good with it. Billy is one of the top D CF in the game and will get balls that other players have to wreck their bodies to get.

But

My gut check on this subject is Theo and Jed will roll the dice on Happ every day CF and Almora as a late inning D upgrade.

Happ showed enough in his call up (1.5 fWAR/ 126 wRC+) to justify the decision.

But if they could get a speed bench player that can cause havok it would be worth the roster spot.

 

[Castor76]

Hendricks?

Not sure of your meaning here.

My opinion is go after a trade to bring back a CF that plays plus D and hits from the left. Shoot if Billy H signed a 5M deal to platoon with Almora hitting #9 I'm good with it. Billy is one of the top D CF in the game and will get balls that other players have to wreck their bodies to get.

But

My gut check on this subject is Theo and Jed will roll the dice on Happ every day CF and Almora as a late inning D upgrade.

Happ showed enough in his call up (1.5 fWAR/ 126 wRC+) to justify the decision.

But if they could get a speed bench player that can cause havok it would be worth the roster spot.

I think he meant Howie Kendricks. Howie probably made himself a lot of money with his post season performance.

 

[Steve_A]

Hendricks?

Not sure of your meaning here.

My opinion is go after a trade to bring back a CF that plays plus D and hits from the left. Shoot if Billy H signed a 5M deal to platoon with Almora hitting #9 I'm good with it. Billy is one of the top D CF in the game and will get balls that other players have to wreck their bodies to get.

But

My gut check on this subject is Theo and Jed will roll the dice on Happ every day CF and Almora as a late inning D upgrade.

Happ showed enough in his call up (1.5 fWAR/ 126 wRC+) to justify the decision.

But if they could get a speed bench player that can cause havok it would be worth the roster spot.

I think he meant Howie Kendricks. Howie probably made himself a lot of money with his post season performance.

My bad you two and thanks for the correction.

 

[Castor76]

My bad you two and thanks for the correction.

No apologies needed. I'm the guy who keeps calling Whit Merrifield, Merriman. If the price were right, I'd love to have Hendricks. Trade Bryant, Happ to 3B, Nico in CF, see if 4/48 would get Hendricks. Plop out and everyday, I don't care what side the pitcher throws from, line up of Hendricks, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Contereas, Happ, Heyward, Hoerner

 

[SilenceS]

No apologies needed. I'm the guy who keeps calling Whit Merrifield, Merriman. If the price were right, I'd love to have Hendricks. Trade Bryant, Happ to 3B, Nico in CF, see if 4/48 would get Hendricks. Plop out and everyday, I don't care what side the pitcher throws from, line up of Hendricks, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Contereas, Happ, Heyward, Hoerner

Howie Kendricks will be 37 years old next season

 

[Castor76]

Howie Kendricks will be 37 years old next season

And? Would 2/24 with maybe an option or two suit you better? Or a different direction totally?

 

[SilenceS]

And? Would 2/24 with maybe an option or two suit you better? Or a different direction totally?

I dont think he can sustain any of his slash line and I think he is a slow defender whose bat made up for it. I dont dislike him, but I would let another team over pay

 

[TL1961]

Hendricks?

Not sure of your meaning here.

My opinion is go after a trade to bring back a CF that plays plus D and hits from the left. Shoot if Billy H signed a 5M deal to platoon with Almora hitting #9 I'm good with it. Billy is one of the top D CF in the game and will get balls that other players have to wreck their bodies to get.

But

My gut check on this subject is Theo and Jed will roll the dice on Happ every day CF and Almora as a late inning D upgrade.

Happ showed enough in his call up (1.5 fWAR/ 126 wRC+) to justify the decision.

But if they could get a speed bench player that can cause havok it would be worth the roster spot.

I am not in love with getting a one tool player whose whole game is speed as he ages. He has never hit. I am somewhat intrigued and at a low price it would be low risk. But it’s worrisome.

 

[TL1961]

And? Would 2/24 with maybe an option or two suit you better? Or a different direction totally?

Different direction totally.