Novaks Bigly Bets Of The Week - Week 5

Novak

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4 weeks of NFL in the books boyos. Traditionally I don't do too much betting prior to week 5 or 6 as I don't think it's smart to do prior to having a decent chunk of in season data to go off of. Sports betting is obviously always gambling, but early in the season your gambling is bound to be far less educated. I plan on doing these each week going forward, and I will not be giving advice on the Thursday night games as I personally find outcomes to be far less predictable for these games, probably due to the short week and less game planning.

That said, the time is upon us.

💯 Bigly Bets Of The Week
CHI -5
... If you can get this line at or below -125 you're taking that in a heartbeat. Bears D is fierce, Oakland is soft, Mack revenge game, and Oakland is terrible in London games. Last year they lost to Seattle 27-3... They might only score 3 points again, meaning you'll only need to bank on the Bears putting 10+ on the board. Their D might do that for them too. Load up on this one.

Minnesota @ NYG - Total 43.5 (UNDER) ... This is another no brainier bet. Giants have no Saquon against a pretty fierce Vikings defense, and the Vikings offense has been non existent for everyone not named Cook. The wild card here is the premier of Golden Tate for the Giants, but Danny Dimes is still a rookie that is fully capable of being rattled by a D like the Vikings. Both teams are going to run the ball a bunch. Vegas has the line at -5 Vikes, so that's an expected outcome score of 24 to 19... I can't see the lethargic Vikings offense scoring 24, nor the Giants scoring 19 in this matchup. Easy under play.

Bonus Bets - Play at your own risk!
LAC -6.5 ... They play at home vs Denver. Gordon is back. Denver might as well start the full on tank run, they look worse each passing week. Chargers should easily win by a TD.
TB @ NO - Total 45.5 (OVER) ... TB can shut down the run, sure, but they won't be able to stop Kamara from catching passes out the backfield. Thomas will eat too. Saints secondary can be had, and the bucs are coming off a 55 point win. They could have shattered this line by themselves last week. Pretty good chance this game is a shootout.
Indy +450 ... Yes, this moneyline is a cheeky play vs the Chiefs, I get that... but do we think the Chiefs are going undefeated this season? Playing big lines like this can be worth the risk in the long run... The site I use has this line at +446 currently but I'd take anywhere north of +425.. keep this bet smaller but there's potential payout here.


Happy betting, and good luck everyone! If you know someone with a gambling addiction, hand them a cigarette.
 

Novak

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I will be parlaying the first 4 bets I listed, and then single betting the Colts moneyline.
 

Novak

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I got in on the Bears at -4.5. Feeling pretty good about that.
I try to avoid betting Bears lines because it's too easy to let fandom cloud your judgement without realizing it, but this line is a really juicy one... I think you'll like your bet.

Another good one I didn't mention is Buffalo @ Tennessee total 38.5 (UNDER).. watch this closer to game time, Josh Allen is a game time decision probably. If Barkley gets the nod, I'm going to play this under. This is a decent play even if Allen does suit up really, considering how well both these defenses have been playing.
 

nvanprooyen

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I try to avoid betting Bears lines because it's too easy to let fandom cloud your judgement without realizing it, but this line is a really juicy one... I think you'll like your bet.

Another good one I didn't mention is Buffalo @ Tennessee total 38.5 (UNDER).. watch this closer to game time, Josh Allen is a game time decision probably. If Barkley gets the nod, I'm going to play this under. This is a decent play even if Allen does suit up really, considering how well both these defenses have been playing.
Yeah, that's always a double-edged sword. On one hand, I feel like I know this team better then any other team in the league obviously. On the other, sometimes that bias can get in the way. But when I see a line like this I pretty much take it. The Redskins game was similar.
 

Novak

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Yeah, that's always a double-edged sword. On one hand, I feel like I know this team better then any other team in the league obviously. On the other, sometimes that bias can get in the way. But when I see a line like this I pretty much take it. The Redskins game was similar.
Only one way to fix that - become just as knowledgeable about every NFL team as you are the Bears. Welcome to your new full time job!

But really, I think I'm more of a fan of the NFL as a whole than the Bears in particular. Don't get me wrong, the Bears are my team obviously, but I love the sport, so I play a lot of fantasy, bet a bunch, and try and stay up on every team as much as possible. It's easy to spot people that really only pay attention to the Bears, they're the ones meatballing weekly in the Bears forum. Gosh bless em.
 

nvanprooyen

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Only one way to fix that - become just as knowledgeable about every NFL team as you are the Bears. Welcome to your new full time job!

But really, I think I'm more of a fan of the NFL as a whole than the Bears in particular. Don't get me wrong, the Bears are my team obviously, but I love the sport, so I play a lot of fantasy, bet a bunch, and try and stay up on every team as much as possible. It's easy to spot people that really only pay attention to the Bears, they're the ones meatballing weekly in the Bears forum. Gosh bless em.
Similar, but mine is a bit of a sliding scale. Let's say my Bears knowledge is a 10 (just as a reference point), the rest of the NFCN would be like an 8-9, the rest of the NFC like a 7, and the AFC like a 5 (with a few teams being exceptions). I just pay a lot more attention to our division and then the conference than anything else.
 

Raskolnikov

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I try to avoid betting Bears lines because it's too easy to let fandom cloud your judgement without realizing it, but this line is a really juicy one... I think you'll like your bet.

Another good one I didn't mention is Buffalo @ Tennessee total 38.5 (UNDER).. watch this closer to game time, Josh Allen is a game time decision probably. If Barkley gets the nod, I'm going to play this under. This is a decent play even if Allen does suit up really, considering how well both these defenses have been playing.
I took the Raiders due to Chase Daniel, interior uncertainty on defense, and the Gruden factor of not being able to completely destroy them with defense.

My analysis was worth over $10,000 this weekend. I am probably one of the biggest failures in human history. We might all die because of it.
 

Novak

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I hit on the 2 totals, but busted on the Chicago and Chargers line bets. That parlay lost. However... We hit on the 4.5x Colts moneyline, so we profited this week. 🙌

More to come next week...
 

dadi01

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I hit on the 2 totals, but busted on the Chicago and Chargers line bets. That parlay lost. However... We hit on the 4.5x Colts moneyline, so we profited this week. 🙌
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More to come next week...
Yeah, that's always a double-edged sword. On one hand, I feel like I know this team better then any other team in the league obviously. On the other, sometimes that bias can get in the way. But when I see a line like this I pretty much take it. The Redskins game was similar.
 
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