***Official*** 2019 Spring Training Thread

[CSF77]

Well, ST is Small Sample Size capitalized, so you can never take it with more than the proverbial salt grain. But they see the same ST pitching, and play pretty much the same mix of 40-man and non-40-man players (and even 25-man and non-25-man players) every spring.

So while you have to hedge your bets a lot, you can draw some conclusions from how a club plays in ST games, and comparing how they've played in each of the past three our four seasons. You just have to acknowledge that a whole lot of factors will impact all of the teams when they start playing real games, in colder climates, over the next week or three.

-Doug

There have been too many games where player A hits .143 over ST then goes our and rakes in April. Too many

The thing is spring games is a environment that is false by nature. Starters are working on a 2 combo pitch to find location. A pitcher that gets blown up on a game might be because that day was his first time working his slider in. And he has to dedicate that putting on getting a feel for it again vs winning a game.

Player A is working on hitting to RF today and lays off of pull pitches because he is tuning up.

This is extended practicing. Thus the training logo attached.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

There have been too many games where player A hits .143 over ST then goes our and rakes in April. Too many

The thing is spring games is a environment that is false by nature. Starters are working on a 2 combo pitch to find location. A pitcher that gets blown up on a game might be because that day was his first time working his slider in. And he has to dedicate that putting on getting a feel for it again vs winning a game.

Player A is working on hitting to RF today and lays off of pull pitches because he is tuning up.

This is extended practicing. Thus the training logo attached.

Oh, you bet. No argument. All I'm saying is that there is an aggregate effect, and that since you're doing that every year, and all the other teams are, too, if you score a huge amount more runs in one ST season than in any of the last four or five years, it could be indicative of some basic shift. Not that it predicts the Cubs will lead the league in runs scored in 2019 -- just that something in their hitting strategy seems to have shifted somewhat.

At least, compared to prior years, they're scoring a lot more ST runs. That's truly all that anyone can say for certain it means...

-Doug

 

[beckdawg]

Actually that is the reason why I take ST as a grain of salt for the Cubs. They are not seeing the same quality of pitching. The pitchers are playing in a disadvantage in Azl. Then they go to more humid and colder weather that favors pitching.

Smoke and mirrors right now.

But the face the same type of competition ever spring and they aren't scoring this much which is the point. More over the starters aren't playing vs terrible players. They get pulled before the bad players often see time. And I mean look at these slash lines...

Baez - .313/.340/.479
Almora - .377/.389/.604
Zobrist - .196/.275/.326
Rizzo - .362/.434/.638
Contreras - .342/.432/.605
Caratini - .349/.420/.581
Bote - .442/.545/.721
Descalso - .105/.227/.158
Schwarber - .311/.429/.467
Zagunis - .370/.444/.761
Russell - .382/.395/.529
Heyward - .132/.214/.184
Bryant - .200/.347/.375

With the exceptions of Zobrist Heyward and Descalso the team is murdering pitching right now. Bryant's average looks bad but if you boost him about the 80 points you'd expect his OBP and slugging are fine. And Zobrist and Descalso given their vet status have the least to really prove. Heyward you might worry about for obvious reason but he's historically always been a slow starter even when he was good.

Additionally it's not just that they have good triple slash numbers. It's how they are doing it. Of those names here's the guys above 20% k rate, Russell(22.86%), Zagunis(21.57%), Schwarber(24.07%), Baez(20.00%) and Descalso(31.58%) though think it's also worth mentioning on Descalso he's only had 19 PAs where most guys have about 50. And of those guys you can really live with the k rates save for Descalso. I'd prefer it if Russell's came down a little but if he has anything close to a .500 slugging this year he's going to have a huge year. Like wise if Schwarber is anywhere under 25% k rate he's going to have a big year.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

And... Spring Training 2019 for the Cubs is now officially over.

The next pitch in a Cubs game will open their 2019 season.

 

[CSF77]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1110620893615554560

Oh well. Most be based off of talent.

 

[CSF77]

But the face the same type of competition ever spring and they aren't scoring this much which is the point. More over the starters aren't playing vs terrible players. They get pulled before the bad players often see time. And I mean look at these slash lines...

Baez - .313/.340/.479
Almora - .377/.389/.604
Zobrist - .196/.275/.326
Rizzo - .362/.434/.638
Contreras - .342/.432/.605
Caratini - .349/.420/.581
Bote - .442/.545/.721
Descalso - .105/.227/.158
Schwarber - .311/.429/.467
Zagunis - .370/.444/.761
Russell - .382/.395/.529
Heyward - .132/.214/.184
Bryant - .200/.347/.375

With the exceptions of Zobrist Heyward and Descalso the team is murdering pitching right now. Bryant's average looks bad but if you boost him about the 80 points you'd expect his OBP and slugging are fine. And Zobrist and Descalso given their vet status have the least to really prove. Heyward you might worry about for obvious reason but he's historically always been a slow starter even when he was good.

Additionally it's not just that they have good triple slash numbers. It's how they are doing it. Of those names here's the guys above 20% k rate, Russell(22.86%), Zagunis(21.57%), Schwarber(24.07%), Baez(20.00%) and Descalso(31.58%) though think it's also worth mentioning on Descalso he's only had 19 PAs where most guys have about 50. And of those guys you can really live with the k rates save for Descalso. I'd prefer it if Russell's came down a little but if he has anything close to a .500 slugging this year he's going to have a huge year. Like wise if Schwarber is anywhere under 25% k rate he's going to have a big year.

We can talk about this on May 1.

This is just like Happ ripping up ST and leading off with a HR then losing his job to Almora who stunk up ST last year.

 

[chibears55]

So I know it's spring training and the results don't mean all that much but the cubs are tied for second in all of baseball with a +39 run diff in ST. Houston is +40. The Yankees are the other +39 team. And the cubs are kicking the shit out of Boston today in a game that isn't counted in that factor 13-2 atm. Cubs 221 runs scored leads the cactus league albeit a run friendly environment but also leads all of baseball.

It was good to see them put up big offensive numbers against a playoff team and their starting pitchers to end ST.
Carry that good momentum going into Texas

 

[beckdawg]

This is just like Happ ripping up ST and leading off with a HR then losing his job to Almora who stunk up ST last year.

Funny you mention that. Happ had 19 k's in 60 PAs which is a 31.7% k rate last spring training. In other words, it's nothing like him ripping up ST last year because how you accumulate the stats matters and ultimately that K rate is what killed Happ's 2018 season

 

[chibears55]

Lol @

But the face the same type of competition ever spring and they aren't scoring this much which is the point. More over the starters aren't playing vs terrible players. They get pulled before the bad players often see time. And I mean look at these slash lines...

Baez - .313/.340/.479
Almora - .377/.389/.604
Zobrist - .196/.275/.326
Rizzo - .362/.434/.638
Contreras - .342/.432/.605
Caratini - .349/.420/.581
Bote - .442/.545/.721
Descalso - .105/.227/.158
Schwarber - .311/.429/.467
Zagunis - .370/.444/.761
Russell - .382/.395/.529
Heyward - .132/.214/.184
Bryant - .200/.347/.375

With the exceptions of Zobrist Heyward and Descalso the team is murdering pitching right now. Bryant's average looks bad but if you boost him about the 80 points you'd expect his OBP and slugging are fine. And Zobrist and Descalso given their vet status have the least to really prove. Heyward you might worry about for obvious reason but he's historically always been a slow starter even when he was good.

Additionally it's not just that they have good triple slash numbers. It's how they are doing it. Of those names here's the guys above 20% k rate, Russell(22.86%), Zagunis(21.57%), Schwarber(24.07%), Baez(20.00%) and Descalso(31.58%) though think it's also worth mentioning on Descalso he's only had 19 PAs where most guys have about 50. And of those guys you can really live with the k rates save for Descalso. I'd prefer it if Russell's came down a little but if he has anything close to a .500 slugging this year he's going to have a huge year. Like wise if Schwarber is anywhere under 25% k rate he's going to have a big year.

Lol @ Heyward
How long til we're looking for Zagunis to replace him..lol

 

[beckdawg]

Lol @
Lol @ Heyward
How long til we're looking for Zagunis to replace him..lol

I don't really wanna have this debate yet again but suffice to say I'm fine with Heyward and I also don't think Zagunis is a starting RF. If you're really looking to replace him I think a more realistic scenario longer term is moving Bryant to RF and having Baez shift to 3B with either Russell returning to SS or Nico/Ademan in a few years filling that role.

 

[chibears55]

I don't really wanna have this debate yet again but suffice to say I'm fine with Heyward and I also don't think Zagunis is a starting RF. If you're really looking to replace him I think a more realistic scenario longer term is moving Bryant to RF and having Baez shift to 3B with either Russell returning to SS or Nico/Ademan in a few years filling that role.

Wasn't looking to debate anything

Just saw Heyward spring numbers and thought it was funny how he sucked even in Arizona ST games

Far as Zagunis goes, you know the media and fans will be chanting for him if he starts out well and Heyward struggles

I do agree about Bryant in RF, I can see that with Bote at 3B

 

[beckdawg]

Wasn't looking to debate anything

Just saw Heyward spring numbers and thought it was funny how he sucked even in Arizona ST games

Far as Zagunis goes, you know the media and fans will be chanting for him if he starts out well and Heyward struggles

I do agree about Bryant in RF, I can see that with Bote at 3B

Well like I said, Heyward historically has never been good early. I mean he's a career .233/.323/.389 hitter in April. I'm no swing coach but I suspect it's similar to the issues he has after being hurt. I recall reading some where that his swing apparently has a lot of moving parts to it so it's not just something he wakes up and does a la la stella. He has to work it for awhile to find his groove.

His spring numbers don't mean a lot to me because I can't see the specific data I want which is his batted ball data. I can see he had 13 ground outs and 12 fly outs on mlb.com but it doesn't really give line drive rates and hard hit rates. That being said, I mentioned this a ton last year but what you wanna see heyward do is put the ball into the air. If he's doing that good things will happen so a roughly 50/50 split is a good sign because we already know even when he's bad he doesn't k much and still walks at a good rate.

But I mean you can fairly reliably track his gb/fb rate and his wRC+ in 2018. You look at his splits by month and they were 0.71 gb/fb in march(102 wRC+), 1.24 in may(90), 1.54 in june(134), 1.86 in july(84), 1.65 in aug(90), 2.57 in sept/oct(67). Obviously there's some other factors given his may results but suffice to say the farther he's under 1.5 the better because things went pretty far off the rails after that.

 

[CSF77]

Funny you mention that. Happ had 19 k's in 60 PAs which is a 31.7% k rate last spring training. In other words, it's nothing like him ripping up ST last year because how you accumulate the stats matters and ultimately that K rate is what killed Happ's 2018 season

Almora .164/.193/.327
Happ: .321/.400/.660

That is kinda Cherie picking a single stat. Going in you had no idea that he would flop.

 

[CSF77]

Zag is doing very well right now.

Here is the OF mix:

Zag over all .370/.444/.761 Now most of that is vs RH pitching.
Almora same thing mostly vs RH pitching: .377/.389/.604
Schwarber .311/.429/.467 again mostly RH pitching.
Heyward: .132/.214/.184

Well you coiuld almost justify Heyward as the 4th OF right now based off of this.

AB wise
Almora: 53, Zag: 46 They really wanted to get a good look at both.
Schwarber: 45 Heyward 38. Their AB's were more limited I believe due to them being starters.

Looking at the starting 8:

Zobrist: 46 AB
Bryant: 40
Rizzo: 47
Baez: 48
Schwarber: 45
Contreras: 38
Heyward: 38
Almora: 53

the top 5 AB players were Field (non roster) Almora (fighting for a starting job), Happ (ditto), Adames (non roster), Adduci (non roster)

What I'm getting at is Joe wanted to see what the unknown players could do. He knows what his regulars bring to the table. What he needed to see are the players who can be recalled in season. He will not get a first hand look at them in season and have to rely from outside resource and opinion.

So that is what was happening. Even Caratini saw more AB's than Contreras. Why? Because they needed to see if they needed to go external for a back up. Those answers come on the field.

So I wouldn't put too much into the OF situation yet. Zag, Happ and Almora were the focus and got the playing time to prove themselves. Heyward was a part time player this spring. Most likely was working on things in the cage vs in game.

Now every thing changes very soon. If those 3 just rip up the league...playing time goes out to those who earn it.

 

[beckdawg]

Almora .164/.193/.327
Happ: .321/.400/.660

That is kinda Cherie picking a single stat. Going in you had no idea that he would flop.

Not really when you realize that k rate is one of the fastest stats to stabilize. Regardless I really feel like you're missing the point. This isn't saying there is a guarantee the cubs will be great in 2019 but this is literally the best you could hope for. You want to claim it's all smoke and mirrors but it's not. While it ultimately may not transfer to the regular season, they are hitting well because their underlying at bats have been good. The difference between that and 2018 Happ is painfully obvious. If people were paying attention to the K rate it might have been more of a warning sign than people wanted to notice.

Also pointing out Almora is a terrible point because I LITERALLY said he'd be fine here numerous times in discussion with chibear last spring specifically because his bb/k rates look fine.

 

[CSF77]

Not really when you realize that k rate is one of the fastest stats to stabilize. Regardless I really feel like you're missing the point. This isn't saying there is a guarantee the cubs will be great in 2019 but this is literally the best you could hope for. You want to claim it's all smoke and mirrors but it's not. While it ultimately may not transfer to the regular season, they are hitting well because their underlying at bats have been good. The difference between that and 2018 Happ is painfully obvious. If people were paying attention to the K rate it might have been more of a warning sign than people wanted to notice.

Also pointing out Almora is a terrible point because I LITERALLY said he'd be fine here numerous times in discussion with chibear last spring specifically because his bb/k rates look fine.

I actually did look at that somewhat. I was comparing each hitters Hits vs SO'S this spring. Field lead the team with 25 SO. It over wrote his strong spring. Aadams looked just as strong as Almora. IMO he made a strong case for himself except Bote went out and put up a monster line with 10 BB 10 SO while collecting 19 hits. He was better than most/all Cub hitters over all.

So yes you are right about the basic nuts and bolts but you also have to factor most pitchers are at 80% in the spring and that baseball doesn't have the same snap in dryer climates. I've been to some games there the last few years and Arizona is dry. Not as bad that time of year as late summer where AC is life support. My son is in college at Tuscon and I made the mistake seeing him in Sept.....

 

[anotheridiot]

Shure would be nice if Zagunis was still considered a prospect. Could you imagine the cries of fans if Eloy was still here and Heyward hit .135?