***OFFICIAL*** Thursday Night IGT: Bears vs Cowboys (#MITCHISBACK Edition)

Who wins?


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Outlaw Josey Cutler

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It was 3 years of predictions.
And? What does that mean for the odds of their predicting the winner Thursday? I don't think you understand this, but I am not being a jerk here unlike others here.

Don’t know what the bleacher report is, but the data is right there on those 3 season it had an accuracy rate of 72%, that’s the best prediction place in that time frame.
We are talking about predictions, 72% is very high.
High success rate =/= probability of occurrence. Again, if it was 90% it would be no different just because it is 3 years. You would need to track the 3 years and see what counts as "success". Does a score of 30 - 3 count as a success even if the winning team won in OT by 3?

You also need to see if it was lower than 72 for a while and recently was way higher than 72. This would indicate an improvement in the methods used but still would not give us any reason to assume that they have insight beyond just a lucky run of predicting correctly.

They have 72% success rate (success still undefined here) but it tells us nothing at all about the coming game. Success rate or a track record does not translate into computing odds or probability.

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 70% or 0.70 , then the odds are 0.7/0.9 or ‘7 to 9’ or 0.777.

To convert from odds to a probability, divide the odds by one plus the odds. So to convert odds of 7/9 to a probability, divide 7/9 by 70/9 to obtain the probability of 0.70.

There is simply no way of converting success rate into either odds or probability.

You cannot insert a track record of success logically anymore than you can say 10 heads in a row means the 11th coin toss is "due" to be tails. It is still 0.5 as to whether the 11th coin toss will be tails.
 

pablovi

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And? What does that mean for the odds of their predicting the winner Thursday? I don't think you understand this, but I am not being a jerk here unlike others here.



High success rate =/= probability of occurrence. Again, if it was 90% it would be no different just because it is 3 years. You would need to track the 3 years and see what counts as "success". Does a score of 30 - 3 count as a success even if the winning team won in OT by 3?

You also need to see if it was lower than 72 for a while and recently was way higher than 72. This would indicate an improvement in the methods used but still would not give us any reason to assume that they have insight beyond just a lucky run of predicting correctly.

They have 72% success rate (success still undefined here) but it tells us nothing at all about the coming game. Success rate or a track record does not translate into computing odds or probability.

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 70% or 0.70 , then the odds are 0.7/0.9 or ‘7 to 9’ or 0.777.

To convert from odds to a probability, divide the odds by one plus the odds. So to convert odds of 7/9 to a probability, divide 7/9 by 70/9 to obtain the probability of 0.70.

There is simply no way of converting success rate into either odds or probability.

You cannot insert a track record of success logically anymore than you can say 10 heads in a row means the 11th coin toss is "due" to be tails. It is still 0.5 as to whether the 11th coin toss will be tails.
LOL, did you really had to type all that without even reading my full reply?

No one is saying it’s going to happen, it’s a prediction, like yours or mine, or whoever. It can be right or wrong. However it takes into account all players and teams stats, unlike what we fan as make.

Again, prediction, in case you fail to read it again, prediction. No one saying that’s what’s going to happen.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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LOL, did you really had to type all that without even reading my full reply?

No one is saying it’s going to happen, it’s a prediction, like yours or mine, or whoever. It can be right or wrong. However it takes into account all players and teams stats, unlike what we fan as make.

Again, prediction, in case you fail to read it again, prediction. No one saying that’s what’s going to happen.
A prediction is literally saying what's going to happen. The degree of certainty is variable depending on factors. You linked the degree of certainty to their 72% success rate. That was a fallacy.

Why are you walking back how fervently you pointed to their 72% success rate if it "could be right or wrong"? Like 50-50 right or wrong??

Unless you mean that it was 72 - 28 "could be right or wrong"? … At which point, you are mistaken based on my previous post that involved my "typing all that".
 

pablovi

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A prediction is literally saying what's going to happen. The degree of certainty is variable depending on factors. You linked the degree of certainty to their 72% success rate. That was a fallacy.

Why are you walking back how fervently you pointed to their 72% success rate if it "could be right or wrong"? Like 50-50 right or wrong??

Unless you mean that it was 72 - 28 "could be right or wrong"? … At which point, you are mistaken based on my previous post that involved my "typing all that".
LOL, prediction are made all the time by all people. Someone said it was not reliable, as a prediction, I quoted an article that says its the most reliable prediction site. That’s it. Still it’s just a prediction, like yours.
 

laputan

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And? What does that mean for the odds of their predicting the winner Thursday? I don't think you understand this, but I am not being a jerk here unlike others here.

High success rate =/= probability of occurrence. Again, if it was 90% it would be no different just because it is 3 years. You would need to track the 3 years and see what counts as "success". Does a score of 30 - 3 count as a success even if the winning team won in OT by 3?

You also need to see if it was lower than 72 for a while and recently was way higher than 72. This would indicate an improvement in the methods used but still would not give us any reason to assume that they have insight beyond just a lucky run of predicting correctly.

They have 72% success rate (success still undefined here) but it tells us nothing at all about the coming game. Success rate or a track record does not translate into computing odds or probability.

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 70% or 0.70 , then the odds are 0.7/0.9 or ‘7 to 9’ or 0.777.

To convert from odds to a probability, divide the odds by one plus the odds. So to convert odds of 7/9 to a probability, divide 7/9 by 70/9 to obtain the probability of 0.70.

There is simply no way of converting success rate into either odds or probability.

You cannot insert a track record of success logically anymore than you can say 10 heads in a row means the 11th coin toss is "due" to be tails. It is still 0.5 as to whether the 11th coin toss will be tails.
 

BornAnAngryBearsFan

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In preseason, if you would have told me Mitch would have 13 whopping TDs in first 12 games for 1.08 TD per, I would have laughed at that person being an unreasonable skeptic - a "hater".

Knowing that 6 of the 13 TDs came in 2 games vs. shit defenses (WAS and DET)

meaning in 10 games he threw only 7 TDs (!!) makes me want to scratch my head as to how anyone cannot possibly BE a reasonable skeptic moving forward - a "hater" to all those who blindly love their QB.

I get why people want to believe the corner will be turned, ok, but how they can feel good about it to the point of admonishing skeptics is astonishing to me
Tell that to Ryan Pace. He's determined to force this bum ass QB on the team, the fans, and the world at large.
 
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Tell that to Ryan Pace. He's determined to force this bum ass QB on the team, the fans, and the world at large.
Football is a team game. When you're near league worst in offensive line play, near league worst in rushing, leading the league in drops, have no NFL caliber tight ends, your QB, unless he's someone truly great, is going to struggle.

Now add in that Trubisky's head coach specifically calls plays that meet his own idea of what makes a good offense, that literally go against your own strengths as a QB, and your own strengths as a football team in the running game, and you'll probably have a pretty disappointing season.
 
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Outlaw Josey Cutler

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Tell that to Ryan Pace. He's determined to force this bum ass QB on the team, the fans, and the world at large.
NO Pace fan here but I do think it's unfair to say he is forcing Mitch on us when Mitch is literally the best option on our current team this season and they do need to see him play as much as possible to gauge his weaknesses fully to address the times he ruins a good play call by poor reading/ poor decision making, poor accuracy or unwillingness to take what the D gives him (which he often does)

vs. when Mitch had no fair chance to make a play due to bad O-line, bad play call (which also happens often).
 

Ironhead22

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Nope, not me in many ways here. I love the Bears and that is why I react the way I do.

You didn't answer my question though.

Don't you have hope that they are turning a corner here? Do you think they are primed for a playoff run? Honest question.
Of course i do. If they win tonight and have a 7-6 record and that doesn't get you excited about a chance to make a late season run then I don't get it. Sure a lot has to happen but yes i will be excited for the chance to beat Green Bay and stand at 8-6. That is an honest answer. What does that make me? A little blinded by hope? Perhaps. I just feel its a better way to enjoy the football season then to think the other way. I'm glad you love the Bears and hope you get the chance to watch them in the playoffs. Not predicting playoffs but not discounting it either.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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Of course i do. If they win tonight and have a 7-6 record and that doesn't get you excited about a chance to make a late season run then I don't get it. Sure a lot has to happen but yes i will be excited for the chance to beat Green Bay and stand at 8-6. That is an honest answer. What does that make me? A little blinded by hope? Perhaps. I just feel its a better way to enjoy the football season then to think the other way. I'm glad you love the Bears and hope you get the chance to watch them in the playoffs. Not predicting playoffs but not discounting it either.
What does that make you? a fan.

Different type of fan than others, but that's fine. Nothing wrong with it at all.

Vu and I weren't the ones who came at you for having hope, enjoy it. You were the one that came at us taking a minor slip-up as to number of games Mitch started and acted hostile because you were upset by the fact that this offense stunk it up for 3/4 of the year.

Even IF they turn a corner for the remaining 1/4, the sucky first 3/4 is still true and some of us will never forgive them for it.

You apparently can and that's great. No one came at you for it.
 
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