- 2,744

- 1,395

- 70

##### My favorite teams

And? What does that mean for the odds of their predicting the winner Thursday? I don't think you understand this, but I am not being a jerk here unlike others here.It was 3 years of predictions.

High success rate =/= probability of occurrence. Again, if it was 90% it would be no different just because it is 3 years. You would need to track the 3 years and see what counts as "success". Does a score of 30 - 3 count as a success even if the winning team won in OT by 3?Don’t know what the bleacher report is, but the data is right there on those 3 season it had an accuracy rate of 72%, that’s the best prediction place in that time frame.

We are talking about predictions, 72% is very high.

You also need to see if it was lower than 72 for a while and recently was way higher than 72. This would indicate an improvement in the methods used but still would not give us any reason to assume that they have insight beyond just a lucky run of predicting correctly.

They have 72% success rate (success still undefined here) but it tells us nothing at all about the coming game. Success rate or a track record does not translate into computing odds or probability.

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 70% or 0.70 , then the odds are 0.7/0.9 or ‘7 to 9’ or 0.777.

To convert from odds to a probability, divide the odds by one plus the odds. So to convert odds of 7/9 to a probability, divide 7/9 by 70/9 to obtain the probability of 0.70.

There is simply no way of converting success rate into either odds or probability.

You cannot insert a track record of success logically anymore than you can say 10 heads in a row means the 11th coin toss is "due" to be tails. It is still 0.5 as to whether the 11th coin toss will be tails.