Offseason rumors/discussion thread

CSF77

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Bryant is as good a baserunner as there is in MLB. First to third, second to home - not the fastest, but has great instincts and is very aggressive, while rarely (ever?) getting thrown out on the basepaths.

Not that Schwarber sucks. But Bryant is terrific. Very underrated.
I agree here. But I really like him in a RBI slot myself. If Javy was able to collect that much this year and Rizzo after his shit start and leading off I would have hated to see what he would have got in 2016.

Say they did go after Dee Gordon

2B Gordon
LF Zobrist
SS Baez
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
RF Heyward
C Contreras
Pitcher
CF Almora

That line up he could push 120 honestly. Dee and Baez counter Rizzo and Zo in OBA but add more small ball opertunity.

After Bryant the line up takes a nose dive though...
 

beckdawg

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Bryant is as good a baserunner as there is in MLB. First to third, second to home - not the fastest, but has great instincts and is very aggressive, while rarely (ever?) getting thrown out on the basepaths.

Not that Schwarber sucks. But Bryant is terrific. Very underrated.
I mean I get that. And I'm more of a traditionalist. But I feel like the problem with the cubs is they don't have a traditional line up. Maybe they change that some this offseason.

Just in a general sense here and not necessarily talking about what I just quoted but I get some people would just be done with Schwarber and trade him. I look at what he does well and I can't understand that. I see he hits .263/.378/.510(141 wRC+) with no one on base in 2018 and I'm like... how the fuck do you trade that?!? There were 8 players in baseball who had a wRC+ of 141 or higher. Obviously I've limited the scope there with Schwarber so it's not the complete picture. But it's not like I entirely cherry picked that data to make him look good. If you can do that without men on base there really shouldn't be a reason men on base makes you worse. And we've seen him hit like that sort of monster before. He did it in 2015 and in the playoffs he's killed.

So, if it were me I'm trying to put Schwarber in the best position for him because if he hits like that kind of hitter all the time he very well may be the best hitter the cubs have period. Bryant's best year he was 148 wRC+. Rizzo's best year he was 155. Javy this year was 131. And hitting second Schwarber is a career .231/.344/.512(131 wRC+) hitter which is by far his best position in the line up with over 50 PAs. The other contenders were 1st, 5th and 6th. He hit .196/.317/.380(84) leading off, .227/.327/.526(116) batting 5th and .257/.361/.445(112) batting 6th.

Plus you have to imagine that if you're batting Schwarber in front of Bryant they are going to have to challenge Schwarber more. You know Schwarber will take a walk if you pitch around him and I have to imagine you'd rather pitch to Schwarber than Bryant with Schwarber on base.
 

beckdawg

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Another thought...

What are the cardinals gonna do with Dexter Fowler? Ozuna and Bader are seemingly locks to start in the OF for them. O'Neill is a pretty decent prospect. And they also got Jose Martinez. Are you really going to pay Fowler $16.5 mil over the next 3 years to be a bench outfielder? It also seems like there could be some bad blood there given how he was treated by Mattheny and the FO before they canned Mattheny.

If we're talking bad contract deals what about Fowler and his $49.5 mil over 3 years and some cash for Chatwood and his $25.5 mil over 2 years. Like let's say you buy down the $24 mil difference $13 mil and make Fowler cost the cubs 3 years at $12 mil per. I think I'm taking that deal. Fowler at 33 coming off an injury isn't my ideal player but if we're just ditching a contract gone bad you could do a lot worse than Fowler and Fowler fits a need for a lead off hitter.

I'm not entirely sure Chatwood makes sense for the cards rotation but they are losing Wainwright. Flaherty and Mikolas are obviously locks. Weaver should be back as should Wacha. Reyes would probably be the front runner as the 5th guy or possibly Carlos Martinez but those last 4 arms are all guys who've dealt with injuries. So, some major league depth headed into spring training couldn't hurt and if they save some money on Fowler they can potentially use that to get better some where else.

IDK just struck me as an interesting idea as I was looking at good baserunners who the cubs might look at on fangraphs.
 

JP Hochbaum

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I agree here. But I really like him in a RBI slot myself. If Javy was able to collect that much this year and Rizzo after his shit start and leading off I would have hated to see what he would have got in 2016.

Say they did go after Dee Gordon

2B Gordon
LF Zobrist
SS Baez
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
RF Heyward
C Contreras
Pitcher
CF Almora

That line up he could push 120 honestly. Dee and Baez counter Rizzo and Zo in OBA but add more small ball opertunity.

After Bryant the line up takes a nose dive though...
Seattle is in a winning window, why would they trade Gordon?
 

chibears55

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1 of 2 things will happen with Chatwood because of his contract

They either move him to the bullpen and hope he can be an affective middle relief/ emergency starter

Or

Their able to trade him to a non contending team who will hope he pitches good enough to flip or just help them tank..
Cubs will more then likely eat some of the contract
 

CSF77

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1 of 2 things will happen with Chatwood because of his contract

They either move him to the bullpen and hope he can be an affective middle relief/ emergency starter

Or

Their able to trade him to a non contending team who will hope he pitches good enough to flip or just help them tank..
Cubs will more then likely eat some of the contract
The Fowler deal kinda makes sense on a value basis. I don’t know how the pieces would fall though.

Fowler CF
Zobrist 2B
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Heyward RF
Contreras C
Schwarber LF

I don’t feel that they are better though. 2016 revisit but older. It makes sense from a ridding a bad deal
 

chibears55

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The Fowler deal kinda makes sense on a value basis. I don’t know how the pieces would fall though.

Fowler CF
Zobrist 2B
Bryant 3B
Rizzo 1B
Baez SS
Heyward RF
Contreras C
Schwarber LF

I don’t feel that they are better though. 2016 revisit but older. It makes sense from a ridding a bad deal
I doubt theyd wanna bring Fowler back
 

fatbeard

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My opinion: He was fucked up to begin with. Then they tinkered on a guy that was plucked from a bad pitching environment. Then he was incapable of adjusting. Wishful thinking at best that all of a sudden his head pops out of his keester honestly.
If you're going to argue that Chatwood was "fucked up to begin with from a bad pitching environment," you have to explain how it never really affected his road record. He's been a significantly better pitcher away from Coors during his career, so where is the adjustment problem?

I
SplitWLW-L%ERAG
GSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Home2232.4075.2981716001392.24382452314921992821622617711.6736.51.29
Away2220.5243.5173624211358.23161521402717672411212015191.3726.01.37
 

anotheridiot

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oh, please not fowler again. He delivered in contract years. Came back on a prove it deal for 4 million less than the qualifying offer they gave him, just plain stunk outside of contract years.

Theo's unprepared presser was pretty enlightening. in the second half, their record when they scored 2 or more runs was 37-13. Wow. That does leave 31 games in the second half they scored 1 or no runs.

Addison took the 40 game suspension, retroactive, when a reporter asked if he had a conversation with addy yet about not being truthful back last year about this, I thought I saw fire in theo's eyes.

Theo said there is no rift between he and Maddon other than the healthy not agreeing with everything each other say, not wanting a yes man anyway. As far as reading something into no extension for Maddon, he will be 65 next year. How much longer do you think he wants to do this.

Said it will be a few days after internal discussions about the coaches. Says he does not like to change every year. Could not figure out why the club led the league in all the important offensive categories in the first half if there was a coaching issue. He also said, which I find extremely hard to believe, that the cubs led the league in opposite field hits. All I remember is pulling into the shift.

Lure Rossy away from ESPN, have him Joes Bench coach this year, take over next year if Joe wants to retire.

How many walks would Javy need to take to be the leadoff guy?
 

CSF77

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If you're going to argue that Chatwood was "fucked up to begin with from a bad pitching environment," you have to explain how it never really affected his road record. He's been a significantly better pitcher away from Coors during his career, so where is the adjustment problem?

I
SplitWLW-L%ERAG
GSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Home2232.4075.2981716001392.24382452314921992821622617711.6736.51.29
Away2220.5243.5173624211358.23161521402717672411212015191.3726.01.37
Then you explain why both he and Holland both ran walk rates equal to their SO rates in the same situation at the exact same time? Remember Chatwood even mentioned a major difference in being able to control his pitches in those games outside of Coors. Coors represses ball movement. And his stuff was all over the place this year.
 

fatbeard

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How many walks would Javy need to take to be the leadoff guy?
He would basically have to double his BB% to hit ~60 walks (30 more than his career high), and assuming his 2018 numbers are the new norm that would give him the .360 OBP you're looking for at leadoff.
 

CSF77

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I doubt theyd wanna bring Fowler back

I’m not sold on it either. But the deals match up and there is history. Normally I would say no as it is moving backwards. But after the Edwin Jackson blow up I’m pretty sure Theo learned his lesson and will pull out if he can.
 

CSF77

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He would basically have to double his BB% to hit ~60 walks (30 more than his career high), and assuming his 2018 numbers are the new norm that would give him the .360 OBP you're looking for at leadoff.

8-10% walk rate is pretty normal. Javy was less than 5%. With his power and 10% he would be a primer power hitter.
 

CSF77

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Kinda telling on what they do:


Epstein was blunt in suggesting that the Cubs’ offense “broke” at some point in the season and will need to be addressed heading into 2019 (video link). The Cubs “should be” an offensive force with the talent on their roster, he said before adding, “It’s probably time to stop evaluating this in terms of talent and start evaluating it in terms of production.”
 

CSF77

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Raw prediction:

Russell, Schwarber, Happ gone. Russell due to personal reasons. Other 2 due to hitting .230.

Rest of the team did fine.

So I see opertunites brewing then. They would need a left handed bat so I can see a push towards Harper. Russell and Murphy gone. Happ out you really need a back up SS. I doubt that they invest heavy here.



This is another thing:

The status of Kris Bryant‘s left shoulder has been a talking point among Cubs fans as the former MVP struggled through a down season (by his lofty standards), but Epstein doesn’t believe that Bryant will require surgery (Twitter link via Rogers). Shoulder woes limited Bryant to 102 games (including Game 163), and he posted a .272/.374/.460 slash with 13 homers, 28 doubles and three triples. For most players, that’d be a terrific season — it checked in about 19 percent better than league average, per OPS+, and about 25 percent better according to wRC+ — but each of those rate stats checked in well south of the .293/.397/.546 Bryant posted from 2016-17.

I would go after Beltre myself. They need to protect themselves next year and taking a flyer makes sense on a 40 YO. Add to it it brings in a leader.
 

fatbeard

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8-10% walk rate is pretty normal. Javy was less than 5%. With his power and 10% he would be a primer power hitter.
Yes, but the question was how many walks he would need to add to become a viable leadoff hitter. Assuming .360 OBP is what you're looking for, he needs to double his walk total. I guess given his power your could tolerate something as low as a .340 OBP, in which case he'd need about 10 more walks or improve his BB% by 33%. So 10 walks might not seem like much but it's still a very large percentage improvement for him. Even at .340 OBP I'm not sure it's worth pulling Baez out of an RBI position in order to make him an ad-hoc leadoff man.
 

TL1961

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Another thought...

What are the cardinals gonna do with Dexter Fowler? Ozuna and Bader are seemingly locks to start in the OF for them. O'Neill is a pretty decent prospect. And they also got Jose Martinez. Are you really going to pay Fowler $16.5 mil over the next 3 years to be a bench outfielder? It also seems like there could be some bad blood there given how he was treated by Mattheny and the FO before they canned Mattheny.

If we're talking bad contract deals what about Fowler and his $49.5 mil over 3 years and some cash for Chatwood and his $25.5 mil over 2 years. Like let's say you buy down the $24 mil difference $13 mil and make Fowler cost the cubs 3 years at $12 mil per. I think I'm taking that deal. Fowler at 33 coming off an injury isn't my ideal player but if we're just ditching a contract gone bad you could do a lot worse than Fowler and Fowler fits a need for a lead off hitter.

I'm not entirely sure Chatwood makes sense for the cards rotation but they are losing Wainwright. Flaherty and Mikolas are obviously locks. Weaver should be back as should Wacha. Reyes would probably be the front runner as the 5th guy or possibly Carlos Martinez but those last 4 arms are all guys who've dealt with injuries. So, some major league depth headed into spring training couldn't hurt and if they save some money on Fowler they can potentially use that to get better some where else.

IDK just struck me as an interesting idea as I was looking at good baserunners who the cubs might look at on fangraphs.
No. Bringing Fowler back is not the answer. That ship has sailed.
 

fatbeard

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Then you explain why both he and Holland both ran walk rates equal to their SO rates in the same situation at the exact same time? Remember Chatwood even mentioned a major difference in being able to control his pitches in those games outside of Coors. Coors represses ball movement. And his stuff was all over the place this year.
2018 was not the first time Chatwood pitched outside of Coors Field. Why wasn't his stuff "all over the place" during away games in 2017? Or 2016? or 2015?

You're making a rod for your own back here.
 

CSF77

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Yes, but the question was how many walks he would need to add to become a viable leadoff hitter. Assuming .360 OBP is what you're looking for, he needs to double his walk total. I guess given his power your could tolerate something as low as a .340 OBP, in which case he'd need about 10 more walks or improve his BB% by 33%. So 10 walks might not seem like much but it's still a very large percentage improvement for him. Even at .340 OBP I'm not sure it's worth pulling Baez out of an RBI position in order to make him an ad-hoc leadoff man.
Depends on his PA’s
 
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