Yes, and I agree with Gonzales but they aren't giving Schwarber away. Happ is young enough to fetch something but it won't be a ton, Addi will likely have to be non-tendered although if anyone could move him in trade it's Theo and Schwarber has the best trade value of the three. I'd say that all three could very well be gone, but it wouldn't surprise me if Schwarber stays depending on what they do in FA. Personally, I love the kid and think that special player is still there but I'd move him for another hitter preferably a CF. Then I sign Machado and Michael Brantley. He's not a WAR increase over Kyle but he strikes out only 9% of the time and gets on base 36% of the time. He's also a better fielder, although Kyle improved a ton there this year. If you could tell me that Ender Inciarte would get his OBP back up he'd be a nice trade target and Atlanta wants Acuna there long term, but I'm not sure those numbers will regress to the mean. They should, but who knows. There are deals to be made and FA that can help. I want zero part of Harper but Machado would really breathe some life into this team IMO.
Problem I have with this is you're taking more payroll on and I'm not sure you're substantially improving. Like you wanna bring on Machado i'm all for that. I think that's a huge offensive impact at one of the worst positions the cubs had last year. Brantley is going to be 32 and the past 3 years combined he's been a 115 wRC+ hitter which is identical to the 115 Schwarber put up this year. Sure they are entirely different kind of hitters but the point there is the impact you're getting isn't really there. And Schwarber could finally break out next year making this conversation look even more silly.
I just don't see how the cubs are getting better removing Schwarber from their team. He's basically a top 60 hitter in baseball with enormous potential. If you're going for an upgrade IMO it's 3 positions. CF, C and SS. Now when I say C I don't think you fuck with Contreras too much but I'd bring in someone behind him that's better than Caratini. The cubs got a 85 tOPS+ out of C last year which other than pitchers was the worst position on the team. SS was second worst at 99 and keep in mind that's WITH Baez playing there quite a bit. CF is 104. 3B is 107 but that's mostly Bryant not playing. RF is 112, LF is 112, 2B is 121 and 1B is 123.
Solving SS is easy if you sign Machado. Solving CF is harder. I mentioned the idea of Fowler before. But other than him I don't see a lot of CF who can hit who are getting traded. Maybe Tommy Pham? Either way, that's where I'm putting my effort not trying to ditch Schwarber. I do think you have some leverage to potentially move Heyward to CF more and look for a RF. That was the idea behind Adam Eaton for say Happ and Monty I mentioned previously. However, I don't think the cubs have unlimited money as I mentioned before.
They are already on the hook for Heyward($20 mil), Lester($27.5 mil), Darvish($20 mil), Zobrist($12.5 mil), Chatwood($12.5), Morrow($9 mil), Rizzo($11.286), Cishek($6.5), Smyly($7), and Duensing($3.5). That's a combined $130 mil. When you bring in the guys likely with options, Hamels($20 mil), Quintana($10.5), Kintzler has a $10 team option which I assume they decline but a $5 mil player option I think he takes, Strop($6.25) and that combines to another $41.75 mil or roughly $171.5 mil before you even talk about arb. I'd estimate the cubs end up owing at least $40 mil in arb most of which goes to Hendricks and Bryant but you also have Baez and Schwarber both being first year eligible. So that would put you at $211.5 mil. Presumably Machado's getting around $30 mil a year and Harper likely will too.
The problem is last year if you spent more than $237 mil your first draft pick was lowered 10 spots on top of paying a 42.5-45% surcharge tax on top of the normal luxury tax. So, trading Schwarber who's going to still be relatively cheap to sign a FA who's not doesn't make sense in that regard either.
