My lock for the #1 overall pick plays tonight.
Herbert returned to Oregon after being considered a top 5 pick in last years draft. Oregon in my opinion doesn't look like a National Championship team. But Herbert insists that they are and that is why he returned. This guy is trying to put the Ducks on his shoulders this year and win them a title.
Why is Herbert a lock for the #1 overall pick? He quite simply is a pocket passer executing a fast paced offense with total competency. Herbert isn't a perfect fit in the Oregon system at all, but he is so accurate from the pocket that the Oregon Ducks overwhelm defenses with the unpredictability. Watching some of the film on the guy shows that he stands very calm in the pocket and has great vision over the field, giving him a relaxed stance and poise in the pocket. If you watch him deliver some of his deep ball its almost as if he locks in on his target, relaxes, and then delivers a strike. Most QBs in the NFL don't do this. In fact outside of Brady and Rogers I cant say I notice any other quarterback who sets and throws with such a relaxed and focused appearance. Brees, while great, seems to be much more active behind the line and looking intensely and firing accurately, something we rarely see successful QBs do. In fact the closest thing to Drew Brees in the NFL is Russell Wilson and I don't think the two of them are even remotely close as far as arm talent, accuracy, and definitely not production. Herbert does play in a gimmick offense, but its a gimmicky offense not because of Herbert but the personnel around him. Herbert with his accuracy and vision could play on any team and be successful. In my opinion from watching him he is accurate all over the field at every distance and is a solid thrower on the run.(Although in the NFL he should not do this often) In the NFL scheme and personnel are important in making QBs successful but there are exceptions. Some QBs are successful with any WR corps and scheme, reason being, can find the open targets at any and every level on the field and deliver a strike given the time. Smith couldn't throw the long ball, Wilson cant read defenses all the well, Lamar Jackson depends on the run game to play pitch and catch off the threat of his legs.
If there is a problem with Herbert or there is going to be one it is going to be the speed of the NFL game and keeping that calm delivery when setting to throw, I think he can get under center and make all the pre snap adjustments within a year or two in a system, long term though he has an arm you can build around and receivers and route runners will excel with him as their QB. He doesn't create big plays with his leg or with playcalling, he lets the players around him run their routes and hits the open player. Some of Oregons offense is schemed, but the deep throws and the accuracy to the sidelines can't be schemed.
This isn't some stretch to imagine and I might be stating the obvious to a few. But I'm betting on this horse to go #1 and be a real deal QB in the NFL.