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My favorite teams
I find that teams that consistently draft well have three things in common: (1) their scouting department has a clear vision as to how a player will fit within the coach's system, (2) they adhere to a solid drafting strategy on draft day, and (3) they are constantly letting draftees leaving through free agency to earn compensatory draft picks. This thread is about the draft strategy.
I for one believe that BPA is a total farce, and an excuse GMs use to either placate fans who disagree with the pick, or to hide facts about their true evaluation process. No, I believe that all GMs have a set of drafting tendencies, which one can only really identify when the GM has been in place for a long time (how many times have I heard a draftee called a "typical" or "classic" Bill Bellichick pick). I had commented a while ago about how Pace seems to gamble on athletes with high ceilings in the first round, and then targets solid players to fill our trenches in rounds 2-3. That made me wonder about whether we had enough information to piece together a general drafting strategy that Pace is adhering to.
Pace's drafts so far:
2015
1 WR Kevin White
2 DL Eddie Goldman
3 C Hroniss Grasu
4 RB Jeremy Langford
5 DB Adrian Amos
6 OT Tayo Fabuluje
2016
1 OLB Leonard Floyd
2 OG/C Cody Whitehair
3 DL Jonathan Bullard
4 ILB Nick Kwiatkoski
4 DB Deon Bush
4 DB Deiondre Hall
5 RB Jordan Howard
6 DB DeAndre Houston-Carson
7 WR Daniel Braverman
Here is my breakdown of the positional tendencies:
TL;DR, Pace gambles on a playmaker in the first round, solidifies the trenches with his second and third round picks, and then picks up support players in the fourth and fifth round.
Pace has been tasked with building a contender from the ground up, and he still hasnt tied himself to a QB of the future. But if he can find the right QB, this is a successful strategy. Pace has not made moves out of desperation as far as I can tell (though with so many holes in our roster, that is hard to assess). He has invested high picks into our OL and DL, which is a good drafting habit to have if you want to get comp picks every year. He grabbed DBs that look like system players, which is fine when your pass rush is working. He selected RBs with diverse traits, which is a positive for a RBBC approach. Now if only he could draft a QB and a TE...
Since we only have two years of draft records on Pace, next year we will be better able to establish which of my observations are his tendencies, and which are merely coincidental. If nothing else, this is the formula I will be sticking to when making mock drafts later in the year.
I for one believe that BPA is a total farce, and an excuse GMs use to either placate fans who disagree with the pick, or to hide facts about their true evaluation process. No, I believe that all GMs have a set of drafting tendencies, which one can only really identify when the GM has been in place for a long time (how many times have I heard a draftee called a "typical" or "classic" Bill Bellichick pick). I had commented a while ago about how Pace seems to gamble on athletes with high ceilings in the first round, and then targets solid players to fill our trenches in rounds 2-3. That made me wonder about whether we had enough information to piece together a general drafting strategy that Pace is adhering to.
Pace's drafts so far:
2015
1 WR Kevin White
2 DL Eddie Goldman
3 C Hroniss Grasu
4 RB Jeremy Langford
5 DB Adrian Amos
6 OT Tayo Fabuluje
2016
1 OLB Leonard Floyd
2 OG/C Cody Whitehair
3 DL Jonathan Bullard
4 ILB Nick Kwiatkoski
4 DB Deon Bush
4 DB Deiondre Hall
5 RB Jordan Howard
6 DB DeAndre Houston-Carson
7 WR Daniel Braverman
Here is my breakdown of the positional tendencies:
In the first round, he added athletic prospects at playmaker positions. OLBs create pressure and sacks, WRs make big catches and can pick up yards in large chunks. Both are athletes, and both looked like gambles at the times they were picked. The risk is probably worth taking, even if you fail, because the first round really is the best place to find impact players.
In rounds 2-3, he added to the OL and DL. Build the trenches to help support the playmaker positions. Notice that both DLmen are considered to have been steals for their draft position. Pace also seems to have really hit on his second round picks so far, blunting the damage that a failed first round gamble can do to your reputation.
In rounds 4-5, he added RBs and DBs, as well as an ILB. Kwiatkoski might be an outlier to the strategy, but I would never argue against adding a solid run-stopping ILB. As for the tendencies, the positions he focused on were the ones that are best describes as support players, because they take advantage of the trenches you built up and make things easier for your playmakers to succeed. A good running game opens up better passing lanes, and a good coverage unit helps give your pass rushers that extra second to turn a hurry/hit into a sack.
In rounds 6-7 there are no positional tendencies. This makes sense, because it is in these rounds where you make an attempt to fill holes in your roster with players who are likely destined for the practice squad, but can be future depth. These guys only see the field on ST or in the event of an injury. Let’s just call these depth/insurance picks. On a personal note, I hate taking a flyer on a QB in these rounds.
In rounds 2-3, he added to the OL and DL. Build the trenches to help support the playmaker positions. Notice that both DLmen are considered to have been steals for their draft position. Pace also seems to have really hit on his second round picks so far, blunting the damage that a failed first round gamble can do to your reputation.
In rounds 4-5, he added RBs and DBs, as well as an ILB. Kwiatkoski might be an outlier to the strategy, but I would never argue against adding a solid run-stopping ILB. As for the tendencies, the positions he focused on were the ones that are best describes as support players, because they take advantage of the trenches you built up and make things easier for your playmakers to succeed. A good running game opens up better passing lanes, and a good coverage unit helps give your pass rushers that extra second to turn a hurry/hit into a sack.
In rounds 6-7 there are no positional tendencies. This makes sense, because it is in these rounds where you make an attempt to fill holes in your roster with players who are likely destined for the practice squad, but can be future depth. These guys only see the field on ST or in the event of an injury. Let’s just call these depth/insurance picks. On a personal note, I hate taking a flyer on a QB in these rounds.
TL;DR, Pace gambles on a playmaker in the first round, solidifies the trenches with his second and third round picks, and then picks up support players in the fourth and fifth round.
Pace has been tasked with building a contender from the ground up, and he still hasnt tied himself to a QB of the future. But if he can find the right QB, this is a successful strategy. Pace has not made moves out of desperation as far as I can tell (though with so many holes in our roster, that is hard to assess). He has invested high picks into our OL and DL, which is a good drafting habit to have if you want to get comp picks every year. He grabbed DBs that look like system players, which is fine when your pass rush is working. He selected RBs with diverse traits, which is a positive for a RBBC approach. Now if only he could draft a QB and a TE...
Since we only have two years of draft records on Pace, next year we will be better able to establish which of my observations are his tendencies, and which are merely coincidental. If nothing else, this is the formula I will be sticking to when making mock drafts later in the year.
