Packers And Rodgers Should Scare the NFC North

[pablovi]

you sure they won those games?

They won the WC spot, not the games. They qualified to the post season, thats the point.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

First and foremost, Rodgers isn't near what he once was.

If this was Rodgers from 11-16, then I'd say yeah. Because that guy could and did carry a team with a shit defense.

His regression is pretty noticeable. Let me make it clear that doesn't make him bad by any means.

You seem very confused on a lot of points. This hopefully will clear it up. There is not a single person that doesn't see Rodgers declining somewhat but yes he is still great. 95 + rating (with multiple games over 100 this year) 4000 yards 26 TD and 4 INT (and nearly always hanging around 5 INTs year in year out!)while throwing downfield consistently. Yeah he is regressing from great to "not as great but still tops in the NFL".

How does that mean GB will lose more? You presume he will fall to "not good"? That's a leap. Do you also presume that GB does not bring in a new QB that can play decently with their defense?

You have no evidence for their fall here.

The Packers D has improved significantly. This is the best D they've had since 2010 pretty easily.

Agreed. It is most of the reason for why I think GB is set for years.

However, they're still only middle of the pack.

No they aren't. Statistically maybe but they started out lost and put it together over the year. They are young and this is Pettine's second year scheming a scary D with good pass rush and top-notch cover guys. They are poised to be top 10 next year easy.

They could very easily improve, but it's probable they'll get more injuries on that side and that's bound to make them regress.

It's "probable they'll get more injuries"?? How does that even work? Can you please show your calculations on that? I hope you actually USED probability and not the fallacy of "if you flip heads 10 times in a row, you are more likely to flip tails".

I would expect a little regression to their offense as well. Too many injuries can make it regress worse that it should.

Regression means players that did well one year do more poorly the following year. (See Mitch, Mack etc) Injuries are not regression and cannot be predicted (unless you reveal your algorithm showing how GB is likely to occur more injuries next year?) Do you also have an algorithm for predicting GB's regression on offense? Because you can see regression but others could see progress or even maintaining same level of production. None of that is based on evidence.

Add all of that to a first place schedule, you could very easily see an 8 or 9 win team. We see this every single year to many teams.

Well, yeah. We also see good teams maintain a stranglehold on their divisions every year. (Patriots, Chiefs, Saints)

We can't use what you (nor I) imagine will happen. My evidence for GB staying on top is based on their coaching, personnel, schemes and extrapolating from years of success.

Your evidence for GB falling seems to be a combination of focusing on things that may or may not go wrong and wishful imagination that GB will be one of the playoff teams that miss the playoffs simply because "some playoff team will miss it. And I can just SEE GB being one of them!"

That literally is not a logical reason for GB to be one of those teams that fall out of playoffs next year. Sorry to say it.

 

[KittiesKorner]

They won the WC spot, not the games. They qualified to the post season, thats the point.

Then say that. When you say they won 6 wc games, it sounds like you’re saying they won 6 wc games.

 

[pablovi]

Then say that. When you say they won 6 wc games, it sounds like you’re saying they won 6 wc games.

I did’t say that, I say the won the WC, not the WC game, winning the WC means getting the WC spot.

 

[ChicagoBearsSinceBirth]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1217237526013890560

 

[SlickWilly]

You seem very confused on a lot of points. This hopefully will clear it up. There is not a single person that doesn't see Rodgers declining somewhat but yes he is still great. 95 + rating (with multiple games over 100 this year) 4000 yards 26 TD and 4 INT (and nearly always hanging around 5 INTs year in year out!)while throwing downfield consistently. Yeah he is regressing from great to "not as great but still tops in the NFL".

How does that mean GB will lose more? You presume he will fall to "not good"? That's a leap. Do you also presume that GB does not bring in a new QB that can play decently with their defense?

You have no evidence for their fall here.



Agreed. It is most of the reason for why I think GB is set for years.



No they aren't. Statistically maybe but they started out lost and put it together over the year. They are young and this is Pettine's second year scheming a scary D with good pass rush and top-notch cover guys. They are poised to be top 10 next year easy.



It's "probable they'll get more injuries"?? How does that even work? Can you please show your calculations on that? I hope you actually USED probability and not the fallacy of "if you flip heads 10 times in a row, you are more likely to flip tails".



Regression means players that did well one year do more poorly the following year. (See Mitch, Mack etc) Injuries are not regression and cannot be predicted (unless you reveal your algorithm showing how GB is likely to occur more injuries next year?) Do you also have an algorithm for predicting GB's regression on offense? Because you can see regression but others could see progress or even maintaining same level of production. None of that is based on evidence.



Well, yeah. We also see good teams maintain a stranglehold on their divisions every year. (Patriots, Chiefs, Saints)

We can't use what you (nor I) imagine will happen. My evidence for GB staying on top is based on their coaching, personnel, schemes and extrapolating from years of success.

Your evidence for GB falling seems to be a combination of focusing on things that may or may not go wrong and wishful imagination that GB will be one of the playoff teams that miss the playoffs simply because "some playoff team will miss it. And I can just SEE GB being one of them!"

That literally is not a logical reason for GB to be one of those teams that fall out of playoffs next year. Sorry to say it.

So your evidence for GB staying on top is Lafleur's coaching and scheme that's had one year?? Really? Did you forget our very own coach and scheme went from 12-4 to 8-8? I guess I don't understand at all why you think another rookie head coach is just going to stay on top. And those 3 teams you mentioned have proven, great coaches. Let's not put Lafleur anywhere near them just yet.

And what outstanding personnel do they have?? Davante Adams is by a large margin their best skill position player. What other difference makers do they have???

And GB's years of success is mostly from Rodgers carrying that team because he was that good. If you need evidence of that check out the 2013 season. It's pretty much a guarantee they win 11 or 12 games if he's healthy that year.

 

[ChicagoBearsSinceBirth]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1217241561240608769

 

[Urblock]

Good thread. Packers own the Bears.

 

[ChicagoBearsSinceBirth]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1217296459357458432

 

[jsu34]

Nah. And certainly the Bears have nothing to fear with their 5 - 17 record vs. Rodgers and 0-2 vs. LaFLeur with Rodgers. We got this! Rodgers pah, SO overrated. He is no match for Mitch and Nagy and our soft, passive D that went way down in sacks and turnovers. We just felt bad for them this year, see? Next year, kid gloves fucking off! Yeah! Only fools would think otherwise!

You missed the point entirely. The bears have been dominated by the packers for years, so why get worked up that Rodgers now has a defense?

Again, is the author new to the reality of the NFC north?

 

[ChicagoBearsSinceBirth]

You missed the point entirely. The bears have been dominated by the packers for years, so why get worked up that Rodgers now has a defense?

Again, is the author new to the reality of the NFC north?

No I just reposted what the title of the article said I didn't state it was my opinion but I could see how that could happen.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

So your evidence for GB staying on top is Lafleur's coaching and scheme that's had one year?? Really? Did you forget our very own coach and scheme went from 12-4 to 8-8? I guess I don't understand at all why you think another rookie head coach is just going to stay on top. And those 3 teams you mentioned have proven, great coaches. Let's not put Lafleur anywhere near them just yet.

Ah, a good counterpoint. LaFleur indeed has not established consistency. I concede it is possible he will flounder, and my estimation that it will be unlikely is mostly conjecture but also due to the fact that he will retain all his staff unlike many coaches who never recover from losing scheme engineers.

And what outstanding personnel do they have?? Davante Adams is by a large margin their best skill position player. What other difference makers do they have???

I am not sure I claimed "outstanding personnel" except for defense but I may not have specified which side of the ball. Their defense is loaded with good pass rushers and excellent zone cover guys. On offense, Aaron Jones has turned it on and is trending up towards top 10 level. OL has played better - certainly not world beaters I grant- and Lazard, Valdes-Scantling and Allison are growing their route running skills and anticipation with Rodgers. I would not call them loaded so much as young, improving and trending up.

And GB's years of success is mostly from Rodgers carrying that team because he was that good. If you need evidence of that check out the 2013 season. It's pretty much a guarantee they win 11 or 12 games if he's healthy that year.

Why would I need evidence for something I already granted? You are kind of conceding my point here. In 2013, GB was designed to ride Rodgers as far as his arm carried them. In 2019, they are designed completely opposite that. After years of marginal success riding Rodgers they established a culture of success that they have adapted even better to for his advancing years. That IS my point.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

You missed the point entirely. The bears have been dominated by the packers for years, so why get worked up that Rodgers now has a defense?

Again, is the author new to the reality of the NFC north?

Let me get this straight. The OP posts an article that claims GB now has a running game and a defense, yet when in a tight game, Rodgers still steps up and makes key throws. "and that should scare the NFC North".

This is all factually true.

You said:

But I dont the North has anything to fear.

Which I mocked. And then you mysteriously say:

The bears have been dominated by the packers for years, so why get worked up that Rodgers now has a defense?

Why get worked up that Rodgers has a running game and a defense now? Um because we wanted to reverse the trend but now that GB is not leaning on Rodgers but building a more complete team around him, that will be that much harder to close the gap even if or when by miracle, Nagy and Mitch are on point when facing GB??

Again, is the author new to the reality of the NFC north?

Are you new to the reality that some people hope for competition vs. the North champs and can realize that doing so is becoming harder because over the past few offseasons GB GM has actually been doing a damn good job?

 

[Chicago Staleys]

The Bears won’t have a chance to be a consistent contented roll Pace/Nagy and Rodgers are all gone.

 

[jsu34]

Let me get this straight. The OP posts an article that claims GB now has a running game and a defense, yet when in a tight game, Rodgers still steps up and makes key throws. "and that should scare the NFC North".

This is all factually true.

You said:



Which I mocked. And then you mysteriously say:



Why get worked up that Rodgers has a running game and a defense now? Um because we wanted to reverse the trend but now that GB is not leaning on Rodgers but building a more complete team around him, that will be that much harder to close the gap even if or when by miracle, Nagy and Mitch are on point when facing GB??



Are you new to the reality that some people hope for competition vs. the North champs and can realize that doing so is becoming harder because over the past few offseasons GB GM has actually been doing a damn good job?

Really??? You just pointed out the great job the packers' GM is doing.
And yet you hope to see the trend reversing with everything that has happened with this team?

Umm, ok then.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Really??? You just pointed out the great job the packers' GM is doing.
And yet you hope to see the trend reversing with everything that has happened with this team?

Umm, ok then.

No actually I don't hope but I understand that other people and I understand that is part and parcel of being a fan.

Hope you think more clearly soon.

 

[Viciousjay]

Rodgers is great in season but a freaking bust which I can't stop laughing

 

[onebud34]

Rodgers is great in season but a freaking bust which I can't stop laughing

I don't think he was even that great this season. He'd show up for a quarter and make some plays...otherwise it was the D and running game that would carry the team.

Just seems like they're upping the pain meds for Rodgers this post season.

 

[Britbuffguy]

I;m not very scared of him anymore tbh.

 

[ChicagoBearsSinceBirth]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1219089820246560768