Post Draft Cap Situation

[WindyCity]

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Bears cap situation now that the draft has passed and looking at possible extensions and the 2020 outlook.

2019: 17 million

2020 Cap Space: -1.5 million [after the Floyd option year pick up]

This is obviously not a great cap situation and I was a little surprised that the modest moves this season ended up sapping the Bears 2020 cap the way that they did, but none the less there are some options.

Extensions

2019 Spent: 11 million

2020 Saved: 1.5 million

Cody Whitehair

Remaining: 1 year 1.3 million

New Money: 4 years 44 million/22 guaranteed

Total Deal: 5 years 45.3 million/22 guaranteed

Year 1: 4 guaranteed salary/ 2 SB [6]

Year 2: 4 guaranteed salary/ 2 SB [6]

Year 3: 5 salary/2 SB/2 roster bonus [9]

Year 4: 8.3 salary/2 SB [10.3]

Year 5: 12 salary/2 SB [14]

Leonard Floyd

Remaining: 1 year 5 million

New Money: 4 years 48 million/26 guaranteed

Total Deal: 5 years 53 million/26 guaranteed

Year 1: 8 guaranteed salary/ 2 SB [10] *5 million additional subtracted from 2019 cap

Year 2: 4 guaranteed salary/ 2 SB [6]

Year 3: 7 salary/2 SB/2 roster bonus [11]

Year 4: 9 salary/2 SB/2 roster bonus [13]

Year 5: 11 salary/2 SB/2 roster bonus [15]

With the extensions the Bears would be at exactly 0 cap space for the 2020 season.

Clearing Space

Likely [21.35 million]

OG Kyle Long 8.1 million

CB Prince Amukamara 8 million

WR Cordarelle Patterson 5.25 million

Possible [20.5 million]

Taylor Gabriel 4.5 million

Allen Robinson 13 million

Mike Davis 3 million

With the likely cuts the Bears would have 21.35 million in cap space. I do not think they will keep both Robinson and Gabriel so lets add 4.5 million make it an even 26 million.


What does this mean

-The Bears are going to need cheap options at RG, SS, and CB in 2020.

-Danny Trevathan seems like a long shot to come back in free agency.

-We need to monitor the RFA on the team RRH, Coward, Irving. The RFA tender for a 2nd round pick is 3.9 million. If RRH continues to play well, or Coward gets playing time and plays well the Bears may be best suited to try and get an extension done with them.

-The Bears should extend Cohen and Jackson after the 2019 season, but they may have to backload those deals into 2023.

-The Bears may have an even quieter free agency period in 2020 then they did in 2019.

-Watch the young WRs, they may need to save money there.

-Watch the young CBs and Ss, they are 100% going to need to save money there.

-Watch Alex Bars and Coward in camp because that RG spot is going to need competition.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

This is exactly why I am not a fan of the trade ups. We need picks to fill this roster out because after the Mitch and Eddie extensions we are in cap hell

 

[gallagher]

This is exactly why I am not a fan of the trade ups. We need picks to fill this roster out because after the Mitch and Eddie extensions we are in cap hell

I don't really see this as cap hell, there is a clear way out of the situation. Cutting a couple overpriced vets needs to happen for any team to constantly grow, and being in negative cap space right now is not unusual.

I'd say we're in cap hell when guaranteed money keeps us from signing free agents and homegrown talent. Long is due to be dismissed sooner than later, Amukamara is not the future of our CB corps but would be missed, Patterson isn't long for the team from the start. We have players that can be moved on from.

I agree that not having so many draft picks makes it hard to replace them with young, cheap talent, but that was going to happen this year anyway. We paid out the nose to put our team in place to win last year, and it was the right call to make. Next year we are probably looking to draft CB with a valuable pick to compete with Tolliver, but our starters are still mostly set.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

I don't really see this as cap hell, there is a clear way out of the situation. Cutting a couple overpriced vets needs to happen for any team to constantly grow, and being in negative cap space right now is not unusual.

I'd say we're in cap hell when guaranteed money keeps us from signing free agents and homegrown talent. Long is due to be dismissed sooner than later, Amukamara is not the future of our CB corps but would be missed, Patterson isn't long for the team from the start. We have players that can be moved on from.

I agree that not having so many draft picks makes it hard to replace them with young, cheap talent, but that was going to happen this year anyway. We paid out the nose to put our team in place to win last year, and it was the right call to make. Next year we are probably looking to draft CB with a valuable pick to compete with Tolliver, but our starters are still mostly set.

I think AR stays around for the long haul because he is simply too valuable to let go IMO so the likely cuts are Trevathan, Long, Prince, Gabriel, and Davis. Sure some of our young guys like Iggy and Tolliver can (hopefully) fill their voids but then we will not have as much depth which is the key to long term success. To get that depth back you need more picks to fill out the rest of the roster.

 

[modo]

The good teams seem to be in this situation.

Also, If the Bears renegotiate with Floyd on a long term deal then that amount will go down. I don't think the Bears will be paying 13m for Floyd straight up next year.

 

[gallagher]

I think AR stays around for the long haul because he is simply too valuable to let go IMO so the likely cuts are Trevathan, Long, Prince, Gabriel, and Davis. Sure some of our young guys like Iggy and Tolliver can (hopefully) fill their voids but then we will not have as much depth which is the key to long term success. To get that depth back you need more picks to fill out the rest of the roster.

Yes, but that's a tomorrow problem (or next season problem), not a today problem. Not to be flip, but you can't solve tomorrow's problems today. The "rest of the roster" was already mostly filled out going into the roster, Pace set us up in great position to NOT be screwed over this year for lack of draft picks. Tolliver, Iggy, these guys listed are depth today. So that lack of depth you see is an issue, today, is a lack of backups for backups.

Next year, the year after, and so on, we aren't impoverished of draft picks. There's lots of opportunity to get more. For right now, we are in an okay position, and we are in a good position next year to fill in the roster holes left by departing players. I know we all want a constant stream of talent that can be trained up to fill roster holes on demand, but that's a theory that seldom works out in practice. That's part of why it's a surprise when seventh round picks like Leno do anything.

Some of these cuttable guys aren't even locks to make the team this year, which means we just be in good position to move on from them already, else their roster spot would be guaranteed (I'm looking at you, David, Patterson, Long, and Gabriel).

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

Yes, but that's a tomorrow problem (or next season problem), not a today problem. Not to be flip, but you can't solve tomorrow's problems today. The "rest of the roster" was already mostly filled out going into the roster, Pace set us up in great position to NOT be screwed over this year for lack of draft picks. Tolliver, Iggy, these guys listed are depth today. So that lack of depth you see is an issue, today, is a lack of backups for backups.

Next year, the year after, and so on, we aren't impoverished of draft picks. There's lots of opportunity to get more. For right now, we are in an okay position, and we are in a good position next year to fill in the roster holes left by departing players. I know we all want a constant stream of talent that can be trained up to fill roster holes on demand, but that's a theory that seldom works out in practice. That's part of why it's a surprise when seventh round picks like Leno do anything.

Some of these cuttable guys aren't even locks to make the team this year, which means we just be in good position to move on from them already, else their roster spot would be guaranteed (I'm looking at you, David, Patterson, Long, and Gabriel).

you may not necessarily be able to solve tomorrow's problem today but you could at least be able to plan for it. I would be a lot more confident moving forward if we at least had the picks to say we have a plan. I am not doubting Pace and Nagy's player eval skills at all BTW, i think Pace is one of the best in the business at that, I am just concerned he is not giving himself enough opportunities to use those skills. As Brett Kolloman put it in his video, the Bears are in "win now mode" which could give you a SB but teams like the colts are in "win every year mode" which could give you a dynasty. The reason the historically great franchises in the NFL are great is because they win every year which increases the odds they will win a SB eventually. That is how you set yourself for a multiple SB run.

 

[Visionman]

This is exactly why I am not a fan of the trade ups. We need picks to fill this roster out because after the Mitch and Eddie extensions we are in cap hell

Cap he'll is when you dont have cap, but your team still sucks, so you have no way to improve it.

That isn't us.

 

[gallagher]

you may not necessarily be able to solve tomorrow's problem today but you could at least be able to plan for it. I would be a lot more confident moving forward if we at least had the picks to say we have a plan. I am not doubting Pace and Nagy's player eval skills at all BTW, i think Pace is one of the best in the business at that, I am just concerned he is not giving himself enough opportunities to use those skills. As Brett Kolloman put it in his video, the Bears are in "win now mode" which could give you a SB but teams like the colts are in "win every year mode" which could give you a dynasty. The reason the historically great franchises in the NFL are great is because they win every year which increases the odds they will win a SB eventually. That is how you set yourself for a multiple SB run.

I haven't seen the specific video you reference, but I have to ask - are you asserting that the teams that are consistently in the playoffs over the last decade are in "win every year mode" because of their roster depth? It really looks to me like the assertion is that the Colts are winning every year with good depth irrespective of other variables.

Because I take issue with that; the colts, Patriots, Steelers, Packers, and Saints are consistently winners because they have talent continuity at the most important position. They are led by quarterbacks who are going to the hall of fame. If the colts, as you use in your example, are winning every year because of down-roster depth, then why aren't they churning out high-value FAs due to excellent drafting?

Sure, they have surprise players down the roster that show up and outperform their draft status. But every team has that, we have it in spades. The Patriots win every year because they are led by Brady and Belichick. The Colts and Packers wins are dependant upon Luck and Rodgers being healthy.

And also, I would say we do have a plan. We were short on picks this year, but we were also short on holes to fill. The Fifth OLB, the sixth CB, these guys are more determinative of ST play this year than they are to winning Superbowls down the road. That's just the nature of backups, they are likely to see few snaps and are going to go unnoticed for the most part.

 

[WindyCity]

you may not necessarily be able to solve tomorrow's problem today but you could at least be able to plan for it. I would be a lot more confident moving forward if we at least had the picks to say we have a plan. I am not doubting Pace and Nagy's player eval skills at all BTW, i think Pace is one of the best in the business at that, I am just concerned he is not giving himself enough opportunities to use those skills. As Brett Kolloman put it in his video, the Bears are in "win now mode" which could give you a SB but teams like the colts are in "win every year mode" which could give you a dynasty. The reason the historically great franchises in the NFL are great is because they win every year which increases the odds they will win a SB eventually. That is how you set yourself for a multiple SB run.

The Colts are only in win every year mode because they have a generational QB and a bad roster that has not needed to be paid because they have drafted so poorly.

The Colts and Bears will be in the exact same place in 3 years only the Bears will be paying their QB and the Colts will be paying their roster.

I am not sure the conclusion can be reached that the Bears have a limited window of being good. Teams that maintain being good even when a QB is paid draft well there is no secret to it.

 

[WindyCity]

Volume of draft picks does not equal to having more depth and cheap talent.

You can make less picks, at a higher rate of success, and still be fine. Pace has had such success in the middle rounds that I am not sure we can make a quantity over quality argument.

 

[msadows]

Volume of draft picks does not equal to having more depth and cheap talent.

You can make less picks, at a higher rate of success, and still be fine. Pace has had such success in the middle rounds that I am not sure we can make a quantity over quality argument.

We lost out on picks due to selecting Anthony Miller and David Montgomery.

Monty should have an instant impact at one of our worst positions last year, Miller might be a star. I'm fine with that. Everyone should be.

I think the solution to the RG/CB issues will be solved in round 2 of next years draft. Just my guess. I fully expect Prince/Long gone, and I also expect them to cut Gabriel if Ridley has a good rookie year. Possibly stash Hall on the PS and utilize him in 2020 to be the "speed" guy.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

I will post a link to the video at the bottom of my post, the Bears portion starts at 30:55. And no, I am asserting that teams who are in the playoffs consistently continually draft well year after year so they can pay that QB and still field a good team that allows them to compete for a SB every year. Having a good QB is not a guarantee for the playoffs, take a look at GB. Of all the teams you mentioned, they all have had great draft classes in recent memory except for the Packers, who are the only team you mentioned to not make the playoffs the past 2 seasons except the Steelers this past season who still could win their division next season. I cannot say the same for GB next season. And no not every team consistently can fill their draft class with players who outperform their draft pick, if that were the case every team in the NFL would be competitive. As you brought up with the Colts they are not losing a ton of talent in FA because similar to us a lot of their talent except Luck is young and cheap, knowing they can't pay them all they decided to trade down to accumulate more picks to replace them with similarly priced replacements. The Patriots are notorious for this and the Seahawks have started to do this as well.
Edit: @gallagher

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

The Colts are only in win every year mode because they have a generational QB and a bad roster that has not needed to be paid because they have drafted so poorly.

The Colts and Bears will be in the exact same place in 3 years only the Bears will be paying their QB and the Colts will be paying their roster.

I am not sure the conclusion can be reached that the Bears have a limited window of being good. Teams that maintain being good even when a QB is paid draft well there is no secret to it.

There is a reason the Colts trade down a lot, to have dependable amount of depth so that in 3 years when they have to pay their QB they can do so with a cheap, young, and competitive roster already in place. Also, similarly to the Bears and Pace, they have started to draft much better the last 2 seasons.

 

[modo]

We lost out on picks due to selecting Anthony Miller and David Montgomery.

Monty should have an instant impact at one of our worst positions last year, Miller might be a star. I'm fine with that. Everyone should be.

I think the solution to the RG/CB issues will be solved in round 2 of next years draft. Just my guess. I fully expect Prince/Long gone, and I also expect them to cut Gabriel if Ridley has a good rookie year. Possibly stash Hall on the PS and utilize him in 2020 to be the "speed" guy.

Its better than that. We did not lose out on picks with Miller. It was a one for one exchange. All we did was pull it a year forward.

We traded this years' 56th pick for last years' 51st pick.....

 

[PickSix]

Windy, I’m guessing that you using the OverTheCap web site for those numbers. ?
Do you know how they calculate the 2020 cap space....whether they include the ‘19 rollover and make an assumption for the league increase for next year?
My guess is that they doing a formula for the rollover, but have no assumption for the 2020 league wide increase. Could definitely be wrong on that, but if not, there will be more cap than presented.

 

[WindyCity]

I will post a link to the video at the bottom of my post, the Bears portion starts at 30:55. And no, I am asserting that teams who are in the playoffs consistently continually draft well year after year so they can pay that QB and still field a good team that allows them to compete for a SB every year. Having a good QB is not a guarantee for the playoffs, take a look at GB. Of all the teams you mentioned, they all have had great draft classes in recent memory except for the Packers, who are the only team you mentioned to not make the playoffs the past 2 seasons except the Steelers this past season who still could win their division next season. I cannot say the same for GB next season. And no not every team consistently can fill their draft class with players who outperform their draft pick, if that were the case every team in the NFL would be competitive. As you brought up with the Colts they are not losing a ton of talent in FA because similar to us a lot of their talent except Luck is young and cheap, knowing they can't pay them all they decided to trade down to accumulate more picks to replace them with similarly priced replacements. The Patriots are notorious for this and the Seahawks have started to do this as well.
Edit: @gallagher

Trading down and having more picks does not guarantee successfully making picks. Pace was ranked by US Today as having the 4th best draft record over the last 5 years despite having less picks.

The reason they do not have picks is because they wanted to add impact players at important positions

Trubisky
Mack
Miller

Losing a future 4th for Montgomery does not concern me as those are easy to replace and I wouldn't un do the Mack trade for anything in this world.

 

[dennehy]

Its better than that. We did not lose out on picks with Miller. It was a one for one exchange. All we did was pull it a year forward.

We traded this years' 56th pick for last years' 51st pick.....

We gave them a pick last year too, I think it was a 4th rounder.

 

[WindyCity]

Windy, I’m guessing that you using the OverTheCap web site for those numbers. ?
Do you know how they calculate the 2020 cap space....whether they include the ‘19 rollover and make an assumption for the league increase for next year?
My guess is that they doing a formula for the rollover, but have no assumption for the 2020 league wide increase. Could definitely be wrong on that, but if not, there will be more cap than presented.

It is not included at this time, but rather than roll it forward they should use it for extensions for key guys.

 

[WindyCity]

The Colts roster is hot garbage.

They traded down because they needed to add multiple players at multiple positions to make up for Grigson's horrendous 5 year run.