Prevent D: Good or Bad?

Opinion on Prevent D?

  • No Worries - It's working great! Bears are winning!

    Votes: 6 21.4%
  • Slight Concern - Good concept. Maybe used to much or needs tweaking.

    Votes: 5 17.9%
  • Significant Concern - Bad concept. Should play straight up normal ball for the most part.

    Votes: 17 60.7%

  • Total voters
    28

Starion

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I hope to discuss logically since IMO not all games will allow the Bears a multiple score lead going into half and especially into the 4th Qrt. We've all seen prevent used often in these situations this season and last. Bears usually win, so we can't ignore that, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm concerned about them blowing leads. I feel this is THE main & biggest threat to wins, as seen vs GB losses, DEN skin of teeth survival, and many "should be" blow outs, even shutouts turned scary late. Stats approaching half & end of the game were staggeringly worse last year & probably '19 (yards & points scored/allowed) vs solid to incredible otherwise, esp on D. (Offensive Prevent Run game also mentioned)

1. GOOD / Reasons to "Get Soft"
- force opposing Offenses to go 8, 9, hell 15 plays to score = take at least 4 mins off the clock & make them use time outs.
- more plays = more chances at sacks & turnovers
- clock killing run game decreases giving up sacks, clock stoppage, & turnovers.

2. BAD / Why they shouldn't back off
- consistently blowing leads (+Bears' O isn't scoring at will lately...especially when backing off themselves to kill clock)
- turnovers seem to come & go. Can't be "counted on"
- Each QB in all 4 games has racked up more "garbage time" yards and TDs than the 75-80% of the rest of the game.
- DB cushions have been well behind LOS to the point closing speed still isn't enough to stop 1st downs easily seen before snap.
- Bears clock-killing run game O is not clicking. If it was, it'd make more sense. I counted 3 straight Bears O 3 & out drives in the 4th. DM needs some blocking.

3. ??? Not sure about ???
- Prevent more likely to = wins? or risky by trading clock for opponents the chance to incrementally creep back in?
- Stats on Prevent D success? Would need score differential or yards gained/given before backing off vs final across many games.
- Are Bears just going Prevent too early??
- Maybe DBs & LBs are just cushioning TOO SOFTLY?? or O running to kill clock too soon/often/predictably??




Please, let's keep this positive. By no means am I complaining. This team is STACKED and kicking asses. My expectations couldn't be higher, but I do feel like they are their own worst enemy with the prevent D (and very week run game), making 4th quarters frustrating & even scary. Not fun to watch leads dwindle when I feel they could be extended or at least maintained. I welcome your comments.
 

Myk

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If we had the power offense we should have, or if we could reliably run for 10 yards in 3 tries it's a valid concept.
The BS of letting them march down and then going out and trying for 3&out is stupid.

With the offense we have it's playing with fire to Lovie the ball. One of these days a team is going to turn it on at the end and we won't be able to keep up.
I didn't like today's because I wanted a shutout but they weren't going to come back 3 scores in that time.

I think an argument could be made for not allowing points in the division ever.

I don't think we're doing it too early...yet. See above about Lovieing the ball. Lovie didn't start the crap at the half until later in his career.
 

Klotty23

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Stats are subjective, especially the last two games. The bears defense and offense during the second halves of the past two games were played perfectly.

Nagy seems to be calling plays to try and score on long time consuming drives which has worked out extremely well the past 3 games. It seems as if he’s playing into the hands of our defense and isn’t going to give other teams free points by turning the ball over.

The defense has given up garbage time yardage and some points but just isn’t going to give up the big play! It’s the smart way to play.

Yes, I’d like to see more blow outs but even seven minute drive field goals are very good for this defense. It’s tough to argue with the results which are far more important than stats!
 

BearsBud

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I despise the prevent D..Nagy/Pagano always takes his foot off the gas..He did it yesterday, and the Vikes went right down the field and scored after being dominated for 53 minutes..He did the same thing with the Skins and they scored as well..It's just a guess on my part, but I think he does it to allow the opposing coach to save face

If you're up 40-0 you should be trying to score on your last drive of the game..
 

Toast88

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Bears are almost last in the league in fourth quarter yards and points given up since the beginning of last year.

I realize part of that is that they've had the lead so much in the fourth quarter. But 31st in the league? There's something wrong with that.
 

Visionman

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Depends on the opponent. I do think we go in to prevent too early against everyone, but against better QBs, you just can't allow them to drive down the field unless you're up by 3 scores in the 4th. Guys like Erin will eat you for lunch when you do that, and once you turn it off, it's near impossible to just turn it back on again.

Against top QBs, you keep playing hard. Against the Cousins' of the world...you can take it easy...
 
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Toast88

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When you are up 2 scores the thing you cannot do is give up an 80 yard TD throw that takes 10 seconds off the clock.

Please see GB last season.
It's just a difference of opinion on strategy. I understand your thought process, but my own is:

I trust the Bears' All Pro secondary not to allow a 10-second 80 yard touchdown, just like they didn't allow it all game.
 

airtime143

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When you are up 2 scores the thing you cannot do is give up an 80 yard TD throw that takes 10 seconds off the clock.

Please see GB last season.
Keep in mind, This is coming from someone who watches all the charger games....
You gotta stay aggressive.
In theory the prevent d is a good thing, but all too often rushing 3 and dropping everyone else back seems to lead to schoolyard drills that turn in to defensive PI.

What really hurts is prevent d coupled with run run run pass.

I know history likes to say conservative and good defense gets you wins, But your belechick and Tomlins stay aggressive on both sides of the ball and usually get the win.

Of course, you have the giants beating the pats in the big game with a conservative approach for the most part but one of those was insane blind luck

If what you are doing has been putting you up for 3 and a half quarters then do not abandon it unless they have figured out a way to beat it.
 

didshereallysaythat

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Sometimes the offense changes their personnel also. If they start going 5 wide, you can't keep the same formations either. You are forced to go into nickel and dime.
 

Starion

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Good stuff so far here. Seems 8 of 11 feel this is a significant problem or risk to potential Wins, either on D and/or on O.


The more I think about it, I just can't agree with letting off the gas to such an egregious extent as we've seen since Nagy's tenure began. It's one thing to be 90% sure you don't give up a big play, but they're just handing out 1st downs in the 4th, and not even trying to gain em themselves. OBVIOUS run plays, including Nagy getting too cute with Patterson, & Cohen. Maybe those plays work earlier when there's some degree of uncertainty for opposing Ds, but man.
 

botfly10

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prevent D is a thing. i dont think I have seen the prevent a single time this year.
 

botfly10

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also, if you dont understand how to work the clock when you have a shaky offense and a dominant D and your opponents only chance are quick scores, then you are stupid.

to repeat: if after all these years people dont understand the math of football, they are fucking dumb

go back to staring at the ball and looking at your box scores.
 

botfly10

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It's just a difference of opinion on strategy. I understand your thought process, but my own is:

I trust the Bears' All Pro secondary not to allow a 10-second 80 yard touchdown, just like they didn't allow it all game.
so you have zero concept of probability

you must be terrible at gambling
 

botfly10

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this argument happens with every team that starts experiencing dominant wins where the game is more or less over in the 3rd quarter.

its a litmus test for football fans. it shows you if they are aware of the meta game or if they can't see past box scores.
 
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