so you have zero concept of probability
you must be terrible at gambling
Do you gamble? If so, I'd guess you're a grinder and probably fold more often and bet less than you should.
Per this comment, it seems people here probably disagree with you in their implied odds of the opposing outcomes.
Clearly you seem to think that a bomb/quick big play TD is a higher risk than other fans here.
I can honestly agree as to why you might feel this way!! (sort've)... In 2018 SEVERAL if not all of the 5 season losses were due to this. (
PHI hurt big without Jackson)
My disagreement is that most of these losses (GB, MIA, NE, etc) were due to runs or very short slant/quick out passes that broke deep due to crazy overagressive shit tackling by LBs & DBs. Guys went for the big hit and whiffed. BAD.
My take on prevent D, is to play with enough safety help to not get stuck like they did then, and to not be as blitz happy as early on, but I do believe they've shored up their tackling since.
Now the '18 GB & NYG and now '19 WASH & MIN, they let up far too early and far too much cushion.
My odds of a takeaway on a long 8-15 play 4 minute drive given up are maybe 1/3 or even 1/2. My odds for a stop with NORMAL, all be it not AS SUPER AGGRESSIVE as normal should = a 75% + driver stop odds.
My odds of giving up a TD drive (like they showed vs. WASH & MIN) are significantly higher when we see this extent of prevent VS what we've seen with "normal" D, or even slightly backed off D. The Early Excessive Prevent seems like is 50+% TD odds; esp with that 95 yard TD drive to MIN who were at death's door and still 0 run game!! WTH was that!??
Gotta step it up somewhat...At least until they clean up the increased flags that also give up free 1st downs in addition to the absolute cake-ass 1st downs when there's 3-4 man rush and DBs playing man 12-15 yards deep on 2nd & 7.
Nobody is saying to NOT play any prevent D. Just not sit everybody and give 15 yard cushions for the last 20 minutes. Dunno, maybe I'm wrong. Go watch the last few 4th quarters & get back to us.