Theo overvalues every player we have

[kerrywoodwins20]

This is why there weren’t changes last year even though we all knew they were needed. This is why nothing has happened so far this year.

If Theo doesn’t get it through his head that almost all of these guys (sans Baez, Rizzo, and Hendricks) are overvalued and expendable then we are going to be stuck in yet another bad situation with no real change from last year.

 

[TL1961]

Kris Bryant is so under appreciated and undervalued by people on this board it is scary to think they discuss baseball publicly.

And as for Theo, I believe he has a pretty good idea what he’s doing.

 

[Chicagosports89]

This is why there weren’t changes last year even though we all knew they were needed. This is why nothing has happened so far this year.

If Theo doesn’t get it through his head that almost all of these guys (sans Baez, Rizzo, and Hendricks) are overvalued and expendable then we are going to be stuck in yet another bad situation with no real change from last year.

Idk if you follow baseball or pay attention to offseasons, but generally they are slow moving and things don’t happen until at or after the winter meetings. The last few offseasons have been even later. Yeah we have had some movement earlier than normal this offseason, but you are overreacting. Things will happen in time. I have no doubt some people are moving this offseason. But Bryant and Contreras or whoever get moved do hold a lot of value, so they are right to wait it out and get the best possible offer from someone.

Also Bryant is not undervalued, many people just realize the situation with him likely not resigning here and also that the team really isn’t a contender right now. So people are looking at it intelligently that we should recoup what we can before he is gone to set the team up nicely for the future

 

[CSF77]

They shouldn't trade Bryant just to trade him. That would be stupid.but if they get a return that blows them away Theo would be hard pressed to say no.

I really do not see them commited to winning this year. They are more focused on establishing the next wave

 

[beckdawg]

I really do not see them commited to winning this year. They are more focused on establishing the next wave

I wouldn't really say that. I mean look are they gonna sell out everything to win next year? No. But it's not like they are a terrible team. There's enough talent presently on the roster to be a 95 win team fairly easily. Clearly they have some issues they need to solve with regard to the fact the offense just breaks at times but the cubs run differential last year was +97 to the cardinals +102. So I mean it's not like there's that much difference in roster talent.

Things obviously change if they trade Bryant/Contreras for prospects rather than current players but I'd imagine any trades they make may be small set backs for 2020 which they back fill with mid tier FAs on short terms deals and the prospects they get back will be closer to the majors and hopefully impactful late next year or 2021.

 

[TL1961]

I am not suggesting Bryant is undervalued simply because people suggest trading him

I agree that one of the reasons people want him traded is because they don’t want to lose him as a free agent and that makes perfectly good sense.

I am referring to the comments many people have made here indicating that he’s really not anything special and as I have said numerous times I think the Cubs really go as Bryant goes and I just say be careful what you wish for because when you take him out of the lineup things change rapidly. And not for the better.

I am not so in love with any player that I believe anyone should be untouchable if the right deal comes along.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Kris Bryant is so under appreciated and undervalued by people on this board it is scary to think they discuss baseball publicly.

And as for Theo, I believe he has a pretty good idea what he’s doing.

theo is a man; like any other man. He has strengths and weaknesses. Doubt any other baseball person could have gotten less in pitching contributions from his draft picks than Theo has. He’s literally dead last of any GM in that department.

As for you, I’m scared to think you discuss anything publicly with your reading comprehension. Nowhere did I say Bryant wasn’t valuable. I just don’t think he is on a no trade list like the 3 guys I named are. This shouldn’t confuse anyone who understands the English language enough for you to misinterpret what I said so incorrectly.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Idk if you follow baseball or pay attention to offseasons, but generally they are slow moving and things don’t happen until at or after the winter meetings. The last few offseasons have been even later. Yeah we have had some movement earlier than normal this offseason, but you are overreacting. Things will happen in time. I have no doubt some people are moving this offseason. But Bryant and Contreras or whoever get moved do hold a lot of value, so they are right to wait it out and get the best possible offer from someone.

Also Bryant is not undervalued, many people just realize the situation with him likely not resigning here and also that the team really isn’t a contender right now. So people are looking at it intelligently that we should recoup what we can before he is gone to set the team up nicely for the future

These moves should have happened last year. Their offense was on par with the orioles and their 110 losses in terms of how many times they were held to 0 or 1 run.

The fact Theo looked at that number and thought it was due to a hitting coach and not a problem with the roster is remarkably stupid and it is exactly why this team struggled this year as well.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

I wouldn't really say that. I mean look are they gonna sell out everything to win next year? No. But it's not like they are a terrible team. There's enough talent presently on the roster to be a 95 win team fairly easily. Clearly they have some issues they need to solve with regard to the fact the offense just breaks at times but the cubs run differential last year was +97 to the cardinals +102. So I mean it's not like there's that much difference in roster talent.

Things obviously change if they trade Bryant/Contreras for prospects rather than current players but I'd imagine any trades they make may be small set backs for 2020 which they back fill with mid tier FAs on short terms deals and the prospects they get back will be closer to the majors and hopefully impactful late next year or 2021.

run differential can be a bad stat, especially for a team that struggles to jump start their own offense consistently. Winning a game 12-2 and then losing 2-1 and 2-0 may seem like bad luck and statistics would argue it’s bad luck, but if you don’t have guys to get on base at the top of a lineup then it can definitely be a lot more than bad luck.

The 2018 cubs were held to 0 runs or 1 run as often as the 110 loss Orioles. That wasn’t bad luck. The roster is poorly designed and Theo did nothing to fix it even after it was proven to be poorly designed. He did fire a hitting coach! Good job, Theo!

 

[TL1961]

theo is a man; like any other man. He has strengths and weaknesses. Doubt any other baseball person could have gotten less in pitching contributions from his draft picks than Theo has. He’s literally dead last of any GM in that department.

As for you, I’m scared to think you discuss anything publicly with your reading comprehension. Nowhere did I say Bryant wasn’t valuable. I just don’t think he is on a no trade list like the 3 guys I named are. This shouldn’t confuse anyone who understands the English language enough for you to misinterpret what I said so incorrectly.

Perhaps you just dropped in.

There has been much discussion on this board about Bryant. I thought I could respond to a discussion about trade possibilities and fans’ wishes in general. I wasn’t implying you brought up Bryant. There are many people in this discussion, not just the two of us.

 

[Steve_A]

I wouldn't really say that. I mean look are they gonna sell out everything to win next year? No. But it's not like they are a terrible team. There's enough talent presently on the roster to be a 95 win team fairly easily. Clearly they have some issues they need to solve with regard to the fact the offense just breaks at times but the cubs run differential last year was +97 to the cardinals +102. So I mean it's not like there's that much difference in roster talent.

Things obviously change if they trade Bryant/Contreras for prospects rather than current players but I'd imagine any trades they make may be small set backs for 2020 which they back fill with mid tier FAs on short terms deals and the prospects they get back will be closer to the majors and hopefully impactful late next year or 2021.

Love the optimism but this team ain’t a 95 win team imo. Too many strikeouts / rotation isn’t as strong as it once was / need to fix Kimbrel bad to have a legit bullpen.

Not saying they can’t and am rooting for the with all my love but I have to agree with CSF77 that this team won’t be committed to winning next year.

Hired lovable Ross to soften the blow if they lose bad (giving him an excuse as first year manager as well). Will trade away Theo’s core to pave way for Jed to take over in the coming years.

 

[beckdawg]

run differential can be a bad stat, especially for a team that struggles to jump start their own offense consistently. Winning a game 12-2 and then losing 2-1 and 2-0 may seem like bad luck and statistics would argue it’s bad luck, but if you don’t have guys to get on base at the top of a lineup then it can definitely be a lot more than bad luck.

The 2018 cubs were held to 0 runs or 1 run as often as the 110 loss Orioles. That wasn’t bad luck. The roster is poorly designed and Theo did nothing to fix it even after it was proven to be poorly designed. He did fire a hitting coach! Good job, Theo!

You're missing the point. I'm not saying there's no flaws in the team. I'm saying there are fewer flaws than people are making out. There's pieces of this group that can be a championship team. I mean we literally saw it 3 years ago. Fair enough they are going to have to move some parts around to fix their issues. But if they iron out some of their issues with the offense just disappearing the team instantly is one of the better teams in the national league.

The argument here is how much of the team needs to be scraped to fix that. I'm not sure anyone can say for certain. I mean I think you can make a compelling case that if you add the 2020 equivalent of the 2016 Fowler to this lineup then things change. That is to say if they get a productive lead off hitter I think this offense looks different than having to make shift a lead off hitter with like 4-5 guys.

If you want to argue that it's more than that then ok. I mean I think that's a fair debate to have. My only point here is that it's not as though the cubs need to add 3-4 star players to be a good team. I would argue that even if they deal Contreras or Bryant they have a good shot at being a better than .500 team. At that point it's mostly about whether or not they have actually solved the issue with the offense disappearing. I mean that literally was the difference between their actual record in 2019 and being a 90 win team.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

I’m not sure we disagree strongly about the topic at issue here, but my main point was that we knew this team was broken in 2018, we knew Theo was looking to shake the roster up, and we know nothing significant happened.

One can infer that is because the offers Theo got, he deemed them underselling his guys.

Maybe it’s time to agree with what the market says these players are worth.

 

[beckdawg]

Well my comments you quoted were mainly in reference to the phrase "theo isn't committed to winning". I whole heartedly disagree with that. As I said if you want to argue that they aren't going balls to the wall to win in 2020 that's fair. But, that's largely because they've made significant money additions the past several years that gotta earn their pay. Last year they added Kimbrel albeit late. 2 years ago it was Morrow and Darvish. Prior to that it was Heyward....etc.

It's fair to question the efficacy of those signings but it's not like they didn't make sense and were needed. Ultimately, throwing more money at the problem doesn't really solve things. They need the players they are paying to be stars to be stars or at the very least be semi-worthy of the money they are making.

 

[CSF77]

I wouldn't really say that. I mean look are they gonna sell out everything to win next year? No. But it's not like they are a terrible team. There's enough talent presently on the roster to be a 95 win team fairly easily. Clearly they have some issues they need to solve with regard to the fact the offense just breaks at times but the cubs run differential last year was +97 to the cardinals +102. So I mean it's not like there's that much difference in roster talent.

Things obviously change if they trade Bryant/Contreras for prospects rather than current players but I'd imagine any trades they make may be small set backs for 2020 which they back fill with mid tier FAs on short terms deals and the prospects they get back will be closer to the majors and hopefully impactful late next year or 2021.

Define 95 win when they won less than that with a established manager and Cole vs wTf they give the ball to that day.

 

[kerrywoodwins20]

Well my comments you quoted were mainly in reference to the phrase "theo isn't committed to winning". I whole heartedly disagree with that. As I said if you want to argue that they aren't going balls to the wall to win in 2020 that's fair. But, that's largely because they've made significant money additions the past several years that gotta earn their pay. Last year they added Kimbrel albeit late. 2 years ago it was Morrow and Darvish. Prior to that it was Heyward....etc.

It's fair to question the efficacy of those signings but it's not like they didn't make sense and were needed. Ultimately, throwing more money at the problem doesn't really solve things. They need the players they are paying to be stars to be stars or at the very least be semi-worthy of the money they are making.

not sure if I’m confused or you’re confused but I never said Theo wasn’t committed to winning. I’ve only said he overvalues his own players to our detriment.

 

[beckdawg]

not sure if I’m confused or you’re confused but I never said Theo wasn’t committed to winning. I’ve only said he overvalues his own players to our detriment.

And I didn't quote you in my comments.

 

[CSF77]

Love the optimism but this team ain’t a 95 win team imo. Too many strikeouts / rotation isn’t as strong as it once was / need to fix Kimbrel bad to have a legit bullpen.

Not saying they can’t and am rooting for the with all my love but I have to agree with CSF77 that this team won’t be committed to winning next year.

Hired lovable Ross to soften the blow if they lose bad (giving him an excuse as first year manager as well). Will trade away Theo’s core to pave way for Jed to take over in the coming years.

I just see them aiming for 208 mil and to add they have to subtract.

If I had to hard guess this they give Rae the 5. And pretty much status que it. We might see a extension
Theo did it with Kyle and Bote last year when the numbers are tight. But the issue would be the AAV hit. There have been suggestions that Theo settles his arb cases first. Then he extends starting in 2021 so THE AAV is not affected this year. Add to it Q and Chatwood fall off freeing up that needed payroll. For that matter with a hard reset they could then go over to try and tie up both Javy and Bryant.

 

[CSF77]

All said and done I highly doubt much happens this off season. Targeting Ross pretty much was a signal to the fan base that this will be a trying year that winning comes second. Establishing a future path comes first.

For myself I will be following 3 minor league pitchers pretty close. Abbot should be in Iowa. He comes across as a Arrieta type. Cutter is his best pitch. Add to it he is a command first guy and intellegent on the mound. Marquez will be in AA and I expect the hype train to start moving after BA named him their #1. The 3rd is not Alozay. Like him but he really needs to start eating innings before I really eyeballing him


3rd is Keegan Thompson who fell off the board in injury. like Abbot is ability but a curveball primary vs a cutter.

 

[beckdawg]

Define 95 win when they won less than that with a established manager and Cole vs wTf they give the ball to that day.

It's far too early to get into this projection of wins talk. I'm sure there will be tons of it in march so can we not really do that right now? I mean I know I brought up the total but that was more to illustrate the point that they had as much talent as the cardinals did last year and maybe arguably more. Cards won 91 games in a tough division that appears to have become a tiny bit easier with mil taking some steps back and STL thus far having lost more than they've brought in.

Regardless, the point I was trying to get at here is not that they were going to win a specific number of games. The point I was making is the talent currently on this roster projects to be near a playoff level team. Again, we don't have to have the conversation about projection vs actuality. All I'm saying is the talent level projections have the cubs as a top 5 NL team with 0 changes.

Clearly they are going to need to make some changes and clearly the past 2 seasons they offense hasn't played to their talent level projections. However, to sit here and say they aren't committed to winning is bullshit. Theo and company has built a team that should be better than they were. I think that's something everyone can agree with. We can sit here and debate the why of that all you want but my point is if you figure it out and fix their offense they can easily win the division and be in the playoff hunt.

I look at the cubs similar to the 2018 nationals. That team was 82-80 and obviously underperformed badly. That team had a +89 run diff. They lose Harper in that offseason and gain only one real big addition IIRC in Corbin and go on to win 93 games the following year plus the world series. I'd argue the 2019 cubs are in a better position to succeed than the 2018 nationals were because even if they lose bryant, they are doing so via trade.