Updated NFC Playoff Picture: An overall good day for the Wild Card race

[nc0gnet0]

We win Chargers, Dallas, Giants, Detroit at home and Philly, Rams, Detroit, Minny away.

That's 11 wins. I think we'll make it in with that.

I will give you one win against Detroit, but I doubt you sweep. I also think you only win one of the two games against Dallas and Philly. Minnesota is finding their way on offence, so that could go either way.

10-6 or 9-7 is how I see the Bears finishing.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

Dallas should be a win, I just don’t know if the offense can keep up with Mahomes.

Mahomes can be held to a low number of points, especially in his banged up state.

His line is doing him no favors and they don't have much of a running game. Defense will be one of the worst defenses the Bears get all season.

Mahomes is scary, but one man doesn't make a team. The Chiefs need a special QB to be a playoff team, and luckily for them they have that.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Mahomes can be held to a low number of points, especially in his banged up state.

His line is doing him no favors and they don't have much of a running game. Defense will be one of the worst defenses the Bears get all season.

Mahomes is scary, but one man doesn't make a team. The Chiefs need a special QB to be a playoff team, and luckily for them they have that.

It's not one man, it's Mahomes, Kelcy, and Hill though.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

I will give you one win against Detroit, but I doubt you sweep. I also think you only win one of the two games against Dallas and Philly. Minnesota is finding their way on offence, so that could go either way.

10-6 or 9-7 is how I see the Bears finishing.

10-6 Should get it done. The #2 team in the East won't get 10, I don't think the Panthers will get 10, I don't think the Rams will either because they've definitely regressed. #2 Team in the west will most likely get 10, so that would leave the Lions/Vikings/Bears vying for the 6th spot.

I just don't think the Lions will lose less than 6 times in the season, and I feel the Bears will have the tiebreaker over the vikings. Cousins is 0-3 when it comes to having good games against the Bears, it's just a bad matchup for him.

All that said I'm not confident the Bears win 10 games, honestly I think 9 is more likely, and I highly doubt that 9 wins would be good enough, in fact I'm almost certain it won't be.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

It's not one man, it's Mahomes, Kelcy, and Hill though.

That's true. He has really good weapons in those 2, but we've seen that their offense can be limited, and the Bears will be the best D they face.

We've also seen that their D gives up a lot of points, and their D is one of the worst defenses that the Bears will face.

It'll be a close game I bet, but it's not the toughest game on the Bears' schedule.

 

[nc0gnet0]

10-6 Should get it done. The #2 team in the East won't get 10, I don't think the Panthers will get 10, I don't think the Rams will either because they've definitely regressed. #2 Team in the west will most likely get 10, so that would leave the Lions/Vikings/Bears vying for the 6th spot.

I just don't think the Lions will lose less than 6 times in the season, and I feel the Bears will have the tiebreaker over the vikings. Cousins is 0-3 when it comes to having good games against the Bears, it's just a bad matchup for him.

All that said I'm not confident the Bears win 10 games, honestly I think 9 is more likely, and I highly doubt that 9 wins would be good enough, in fact I'm almost certain it won't be.

I think the Lions could be 10-5-1, all they need to do is split their conference games going 3-3. and they get their second game with the Packers on week 17, and the Pack may be resting it's starters. In that case the Bears need to be 11-5, not 10-6.

 

[nc0gnet0]

That's true. He has really good weapons in those 2, but we've seen that their offense can be limited, and the Bears will be the best D they face.

We've also seen that their D gives up a lot of points, and their D is one of the worst defenses that the Bears will face.

It'll be a close game I bet, but it's not the toughest game on the Bears' schedule.

Maybe, but if you get down early, then it becomes a problem.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

I'm not 100% confident the packers win the division either. I could see them finishing 10-6 or 11-5, and if anyone of the Bears/Lions/Vikings hit their stride, they can get knocked into 2nd place.

Though they are the front runners.

 

[nc0gnet0]

I'm not 100% confident the packers win the division either. I could see them finishing 10-6 or 11-5, and if anyone of the Bears/Lions/Vikings hit their stride, they can get knocked into 2nd place.

Though they are the front runners.

Well, injuries are everything, and all this "speculation" is based on no significant injuries to any team, which we know won't happen. If the Lions lost Stafford, or the Packers lost Rodgers, you can throw everything out the window, although I am sure regardless some on here would hold me to my predictions.

That is what is interesting about the Bears, what would be the most crippling injury? Mack?

Same for the Vikings, who could they not afford to lose, Diggs? Cook?

Also, you have to watch which way teams are trending. A week 2-3 Vikings may not be the same team as a week 12 Vikings, etc.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

I think the Lions could be 10-5-1, all they need to do is split their conference games going 3-3. and they get their second game with the Packers on week 17, and the Pack may be resting it's starters. In that case the Bears need to be 11-5, not 10-6.

They can go 10-5-1, but they would have to split with the division like you said (which is not an easy task, but is a reasonable outcome IMO), and they only have room to lose one of the games that they're expected to win. It's a tough road to 10 wins for the lions because they could easily go 2-4 in the division and drop one to one of the bad teams.

NFC North is the toughest division, and other than the packers I could see any of the other 3 having a losing record in the division.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

Mahomes can be held to a low number of points, especially in his banged up state.

His line is doing him no favors and they don't have much of a running game. Defense will be one of the worst defenses the Bears get all season.

Mahomes is scary, but one man doesn't make a team. The Chiefs need a special QB to be a playoff team, and luckily for them they have that.

I don’t buy that for a second. Even without Mahomes they have the best weapons in football with the best offensive mind in football. They play in one of the weaker divisions in football (especially with the chargers officially sucking) too. They would at least be a wild card team with an average QB.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

I don’t buy that for a second. Even without Mahomes they have the best weapons in football with the best offensive mind in football. They play in one of the weaker divisions in football (especially with the chargers officially sucking) too. They would at least be a wild card team with an average QB.

I really don't think so.

Mahomes covers up a shit load of weaknesses on that team. An average qb would really struggle to get the ball to the weapons they have.

 

[nc0gnet0]

They can go 10-5-1, but they would have to split with the division like you said (which is not an easy task, but is a reasonable outcome IMO), and they only have room to lose one of the games that they're expected to win. It's a tough road to 10 wins for the lions because they could easily go 2-4 in the division and drop one to one of the bad teams.

NFC North is the toughest division, and other than the packers I could see any of the other 3 having a losing record in the division.

But it is an easier road to ten wins for the Lions than it is the Bears, and that is the point.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

But it is an easier road to ten wins for the Lions than it is the Bears, and that is the point.

I'll agree with that, but still holding out hope that the Bears will hit their stride offensively and at least score a decent amount of points each game.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Too many 3-3 or similar teams. The problem with the NFC is there are two awful teams (Atlanta, Washington), three meh teams that are capable of playing awfully or fairly decent (Giants when healthy, Bucs, Cards) and then you see about 11 teams of varying level of good. Because of that, the playoffs are likely going to take 9 wins. If you look at the rest of the schedule, the Bears have

6 home games
New Orleans, LA Chargers, Dallas, NY Giants, Kansas City, Detroit

5 road games
@ Philadelphia, @ LA Rams, @ Detroit, @ Minnesota, @ Green Bay

So the Bears have zero games against the awful teams left, one game at home against the meh team, and then 10 games that are against varying levels of good/average teams. Because of that, the margin is insanely thin and IMO, I just don't see it for them this year.

Not with this offense.

 

[nc0gnet0]

I don’t buy that for a second. Even without Mahomes they have the best weapons in football with the best offensive mind in football. They play in one of the weaker divisions in football (especially with the chargers officially sucking) too. They would at least be a wild card team with an average QB.

somewhere in between you and Briggs lies the truth. The thing is, the Bears are not equipped to win a shootout. If they got down early, they would be doomed. If they could keep it close, they have a chance. Get down 10 early, game over.

 

[nc0gnet0]

I'll agree with that, but still holding out hope that the Bears will hit their stride offensively and at least score a decent amount of points each game.

Ok, but here is the rub, if the lions get 9 wins, the Bears need 10. If the Lions get 10 wins, the Bears need 11. If the Lions don't split in the division, then the Pack/Vikings have even better records.

 

[Briggs is GOAT]

Ok, but here is the rub, if the lions get 9 wins, the Bears need 10. If the Lions get 10 wins, the Bears need 11.

Yes.

That's why the Lions are in a better position right now, but if the Bears can manage 20 ppg from here on out 10 wins will become the floor for them.

Big if though the way it's looking right now.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Yes.

That's why the Lions are in a better position right now, but if the Bears can manage 20 ppg from here on out 10 wins will become the floor for them.

Big if though the way it's looking right now.

That and the fact the Lions have already played the toughest part of their non-conference schedule, the Bears have played their easiest portion.

 

[greg23]

Some pretty big assumptions by the original poster

Niners
Chickens
Saints
Packers
All locks for playoffs......5&6 games into season?

Dont think anybody has anything locked up (saints do have the best/inside track for a spot)

Somebody else mentioned 9 wins getting in....personally I dont see 9 wins even sniffing a tiebreaker...better get to at least 10 wins and even then, likely to be in some sort of tiebreaker.

I thought minn was a must win....personally I think NO is a must win as well otherwise at 3-3 I can see thing spiraling downward quickly to a 7 win season