Updated Playoff Picture (12/6)

Toast88

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I promised myself I wouldn't get pulled into the unlikely Bears playoff discussion until there was serious movement.

1) I lied.

2) This win counts as serious movement.

With the win vs. the Cowboys, the Bears are now one half game back from forcing a winner-take-the-wildcard Week 17 matchup @ the Vikings.

Think of it as a half game back with 2 to play (3 for Minnesota) before Week 17. No one would say a team a half game back with 2-3 games left isn't a playoff contender. Here we go, boys.

So, what does that mean going forward?:

If:
-The Lions somehow beat the Vikings in Minnesota on Sunday
AND
-The Seahawks beat the Rams in LA on Sunday night

Then:
-The Bears need only to stay on pace with the Vikings and Rams the rest of the way. Meaning, they wouldn't have to run the table to make the playoffs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And the Vikings and Rams' schedules, just like the Bears, show some potential Ls.

Rams:
vs. Seahawks
@Cowboys
@49ers
vs. Cardinals

Vikings:
vs. Lions
@Chargers
vs. Packers
vs. Bears
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just for simplicity's sake, I'll leave the Rams out of the rest of the discussion, especially since the Bears win a 3-way-tiebreak between the Bears/Vikings/Rams.

Let's say that the Vikings beat the Lions on Sunday, which they should do:

Then the Bears are 1 game back with 2 games remaining to force a winner-take-wildcard Week 17 matchup.

Then you have to beat the Packers at noon next Sunday, then hopefully watch the Chargers beat the Vikings at 3 p.m.

Then the Bears and Vikings will be on the same pace for a winner-take-all.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the Bears lose to the Packers next Sunday after the Vikings beat the Lions this Sunday:

-They'll need the Vikings to lose the next two games---@Chargers later that afternoon and vs. the Packers the following week.
-They'll need to beat the Chiefs

This would leave the Bears 8-7 and the Vikings 9-6 heading into Week 17, setting up a winner-take-all


I'm sure many of you are like me. I'd love nothing more than for the Bears to somehow pull this off. But if you're at least just wanting some late-season relevant games, there's only ONE scenario in which the Bears' Week 16 game at home vs. the Chiefs is irrelevant:

The Bears will be eliminated from playoff contention before Week 16 IF:

-They lose to the Packers
AND
-The Vikings beat the Lions this week AND the Chargers next week
 
Last edited:

legendxofxlink

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I promised myself I wouldn't get pulled into the unlikely Bears playoff discussion until there was serious movement.

1) I lied.

2) This win counts as serious movement.

With the win vs. the Cowboys, the Bears are now one half game back from forcing a winner-take-the-wildcard Week 17 matchup @ the Vikings.

Think of it as a half game back with 2 to play (3 for Minnesota) before Week 17. No one would say a team a half game back with 2-3 games left isn't a playoff contender. Here we go, boys.

So, what does that mean going forward?:

If:
-The Lions somehow beat the Vikings in Minnesota on Sunday
AND
-The Seahawks beat the Rams in LA on Sunday night

Then:
-The Bears need only to stay on pace with the Vikings and Rams the rest of the way. Meaning, they wouldn't have to run the table to make the playoffs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And the Vikings and Rams' schedules, just like the Bears, show some potential Ls.

Rams:
vs. Seahawks
@Cowboys
@49ers
@Rams

Vikings:
vs. Lions
@Chargers
vs. Packers
vs. Bears
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just for simplicity's sake, I'll leave the Rams out of the rest of the discussion, especially since the Bears win a 3-way-tiebreak between the Bears/Vikings/Rams.

Let's say that the Vikings beat the Lions on Sunday, which they should do:

Then the Bears are 1 game back with 2 games remaining to force a winner-take-wildcard Week 17 matchup.

Then you have to beat the Packers at noon next Sunday, then hopefully watch the Chargers beat the Vikings at 3 p.m.

Then the Bears and Vikings will be on the same pace for a winner-take-all.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the Bears lose to the Packers next Sunday after the Vikings beat the Lions this Sunday:

-They'll need the Vikings to lose the next two games---@Chargers later that afternoon and vs. the Packers the following week.
-They'll need to beat the Chiefs

This would leave the Bears 8-7 and the Vikings 9-6 heading into Week 17, setting up a winner-take-all


I'm sure many of you are like me. I'd love nothing more than for the Bears to somehow pull this off. But if you're at least just wanting some late-season relevant games, there's only ONE scenario in which the Bears' Week 16 game at home vs. the Chiefs is irrelevant:

The Bears will be eliminated from playoff contention before Week 16 IF:

-They lose to the Packers
AND
-The Vikings beat the Lions this week AND the Chargers next week
Imagine having to close the season by playing your own team. Rams @ Rams. NFL schedulers really screwed them
 

legendxofxlink

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Wouldn't the Rams have the head to head tiebreaker over the Bears? Or does conference record come first if they finish with the same record?
Rams need to have a worse record for Bears to get in the playoffs...

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

  1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
  2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.
 

bearmick

Captain Objectivity
Donator
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To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

  1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
  2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.
So the Rams would still beat us out if the Bears, teams and Vikings all finish with the same record.

I guess that's why the percentage is so low. It would be higher if we only had to beat out the Vikings.
 

gwharris2254

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Chicago Bears Chicago Blackhawks
OMG really hoping the KC / BEARs game means something to our chances.

TruShitSky would finally have a chance to silence critics

What a friggin moment on CCS

Chances are Slim and None, but at least Slim ( who left town ) came back
 

legendxofxlink

Whistle Dixie
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Chicago Bears Nashville Predators ETSU Buccaneers, Tennessee Volunteers
So the Rams would still beat us out if the Bears, teams and Vikings all finish with the same record.

I guess that's why the percentage is so low. It would be higher if we only had to beat out the Vikings.
Yep... v Seahawks, @ Dallas, @ 9ers is a rough schedule for them. If they lose all 3, Bears can lose 1 game and get in. But Rams have to at least lose 2 of these for Bears to have a chance
 

Toast88

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Bears would win the three-way-tiebreak between the Bears/Rams/Vikings because they would have the best conference record.
 
Last edited:

KoreanBear

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Bears have swag again!!! The whole team looked like thugs last night.
They are peaking at the perfect time.
And it all started with Fedex Mitch!
 

didshereallysaythat

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I actually think the Bears have a decent chance against the Chiefs.

Statistically, the Cowboys had the number 1 offense in the NFL. The way the Bears are playing on O now, they can hang 30 plus on the Chiefs and control the TOP. Mahomes will put up points no doubt.
 
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