Updated Playoff Picture (12/6)

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Unfortunately Rams H2H win supersedes conference record with the Bears. Rams/Vikings would be up to conf record in this scenario

Yeah but he means a 3-way tie. In that case better H2H for Bears (2 W over MIN vs. 1 L to Rams) guarantees the better conference record simultaneously. Unless I am missing something? ... which could very well be true here.

 

[legendxofxlink]

No conflicting info.

If Bears and Rams tie, Rams win the tiebreak.

If Bears, Rams and Vikings tie, Bears win the tiebreak.

How the fuck?...
https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable. (Rams over Bears)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.

Red is what matters.. In this 3way Tie scenario. Vikings are eliminated in division Tie breaker first, THEN it reverts back to the 2 club Tie Breaker, which eliminates the Bears....

 

[greg23]

How the fuck?...
https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable. (Rams over Bears)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.

Red is what matters.. In this 3way Tie scenario. Vikings are eliminated in division Tie breaker first, THEN it reverts back to the 2 club Tie Breaker, which eliminates the Bears....

this is correct which is why we REALLY need the seachickens to beat la sun night.

min and gb look to have home gimmies this weekend so not counting on losses from either of them, if one happens it's a bonus and REALLY helps

 

[Toast88]

You're probably right on the 3-way-tie stuff. I was going off of the Hoge and Jahns podcast, which they admittedly weren't fully versed on. So it turns out the Bears really do need the Seahawks and 9ers to take care of business against the Rams.

 

[pablovi]

Rams need to lose 2.....Bears are still very much on the outside looking in. But Rams have been very inconsistent....there is a chance

The Rams face the two best teams in the NL, they’ll probably lose two.

But the Bears need to beat GB and KC, and that’s very unlikely.

 

[DrGonzo]

If the Bears beat the Packers I will be happy because the Bears beat the Packers. I am not clinging to any playoff hopes right now. However if they not only win but whoop the Packers ass then we can talk.

 

[Bearin' Down]

Gosh lolwtf just w8 until Mitch beats Mahomes 1 v 1. The meltdowns here will be literally epic.

???HATERS??? ON BLAST

Mitch will not only beat Mahomes, he's gonna drop 5 TDs

 

[Chicagosports89]

The rams are bad. They will absolutely lose to Seattle and San Fran. Possibly Dallas too.

Minnesota isn’t going to lose to the chargers or lions, let’s be realistic. We will need them to lose to GB and we will have to win out to make it.

Unfortunately the games we gave away early (chargers, raiders, and rams) will likely come back to bite us. But at least the last few weeks they’ve shown heart and given themselves a chance.

 

[Mdbearz]

We are on the outside looking in and we have likely the 3 hardest opponents of the remaining schedule, so.......I'm realistic....we are not making the playoffs this year.

If we pull off a win against the Packers, I might change my tune.

 

[Chicago Staleys]

The realistic chances of the Bears making the playoffs ended weeks ago. I’m just rooting to see an improvement from the offense and see who is worth keeping next year.

 

[dabears70]

I promised myself I wouldn't get pulled into the unlikely Bears playoff discussion until there was serious movement.

1) I lied.

2) This win counts as serious movement.

With the win vs. the Cowboys, the Bears are now one half game back from forcing a winner-take-the-wildcard Week 17 matchup @ the Vikings.

Think of it as a half game back with 2 to play (3 for Minnesota) before Week 17. No one would say a team a half game back with 2-3 games left isn't a playoff contender. Here we go, boys.

So, what does that mean going forward?:

If:
-The Lions somehow beat the Vikings in Minnesota on Sunday
AND
-The Seahawks beat the Rams in LA on Sunday night

Then:
-The Bears need only to stay on pace with the Vikings and Rams the rest of the way. Meaning, they wouldn't have to run the table to make the playoffs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And the Vikings and Rams' schedules, just like the Bears, show some potential Ls.

Rams:
vs. Seahawks
@Cowboys
@49ers
vs. Cardinals

Vikings:
vs. Lions
@Chargers
vs. Packers
vs. Bears
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just for simplicity's sake, I'll leave the Rams out of the rest of the discussion, especially since the Bears win a 3-way-tiebreak between the Bears/Vikings/Rams.

Let's say that the Vikings beat the Lions on Sunday, which they should do:

Then the Bears are 1 game back with 2 games remaining to force a winner-take-wildcard Week 17 matchup.

Then you have to beat the Packers at noon next Sunday, then hopefully watch the Chargers beat the Vikings at 3 p.m.

Then the Bears and Vikings will be on the same pace for a winner-take-all.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the Bears lose to the Packers next Sunday after the Vikings beat the Lions this Sunday:

-They'll need the Vikings to lose the next two games---@Chargers later that afternoon and vs. the Packers the following week.
-They'll need to beat the Chiefs

This would leave the Bears 8-7 and the Vikings 9-6 heading into Week 17, setting up a winner-take-all


I'm sure many of you are like me. I'd love nothing more than for the Bears to somehow pull this off. But if you're at least just wanting some late-season relevant games, there's only ONE scenario in which the Bears' Week 16 game at home vs. the Chiefs is irrelevant:

The Bears will be eliminated from playoff contention before Week 16 IF:

-They lose to the Packers
AND
-The Vikings beat the Lions this week AND the Chargers next week

Don't do this to yourself Toast. It's not worth it. Things will get better. Step off the ledge.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

The Bears are in the playoffs now. Have to win every game.

 

[CAP BOSO]

If they beat GB next week in Lambeau I will truly be a believer. If they win that game, I think they will roll the Chiefs to be honest.

 

[Chicagosports89]

The Bears are in the playoffs now. Have to win every game.

How do you figure this? Bears are not in the playoffs now

 

[mecha]

this is crazy, the Chiefs are mortal. I looked at the teams they've lost to and it's actually quite intriguing. they lost to the Packers. if the Bears beat the Packers that means they can beat them too right???

I'll hold my optimism, but at least it's exciting to not have to poopoo the team anymore.

 

[BearsJR]

My all time homer dream scenario.
Bears trash the Packers, Rodgers looks like Zac did last night, dejected and beaten.
Beat KC with Mitch outplaying Pat.
Beat Vikes, roll through the playoffs and meet the Texans in the SB where Mitch outplays Watson and gets SB MVP.


what? I said it was a homer dream scenario.

 

[Rob219_CBMB]

@ Packers, Chiefs, @ Vikings. When can I get my playoff tickets?

people are deciding to hold onto their tickets now, i got three for cowboys yesterday.

 

[Rob219_CBMB]

I posted this a few days ago and i'm stickin with it..I'm not even worried about the Rams just vikings and the eagles/cowboys situation.
here's what i got..
week 14
DAL @ CHI (W CHI 7-6 / L DAL 6-7
WAS @ GB (W Packers 10 - 3)
DET @ MIN (W MIN 9-4)
SEA @ LAR (L RAMS 7- 6)
NYG @ PHI (W PHI 6 -7)

Week 15
Min @ LAC (L MIN 9- 5)
Chi @ GB (W CHI 8-6 / L GB 10-4)
Phi @ Was (W PHI 7-7)
LAR @ Dal (W Dal 7-7 / L LAR 7-7)

Week 16
KC @ CHI (L CHI 8- 7)
LAR @ SF (L LAR 7-8)
Dal @ PHI (W PHI 8-7 / L Dal 7-8)
GB @ MIN (W GB 11-4 / L MIN 9-6)

Week 17
Was @ Dal (W Dal 8-8)
PHI @ NYG (W PHI 9-7)
GB @ DET (W GB 12-4)
CHI @ MIN (W CHI 9-7 / MIN 9-7)
ARI @ LAR (W LAR 8-8)

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

My all time homer dream scenario.
Bears trash the Packers, Rodgers looks like Zac did last night, dejected and beaten.
Beat KC with Mitch outplaying Pat.
Beat Vikes, roll through the playoffs and meet the Texans in the SB where Mitch outplays Watson and gets SB MVP.


what? I said it was a homer dream scenario.

I got excited reading that, lol.

 

[Chicago Staleys]

I posted this a few days ago and i'm stickin with it..I'm not even worried about the Rams just vikings and the eagles/cowboys situation.
here's what i got..
week 14
DAL @ CHI (W CHI 7-6 / L DAL 6-7
WAS @ GB (W Packers 10 - 3)
DET @ MIN (W MIN 9-4)
SEA @ LAR (L RAMS 7- 6)
NYG @ PHI (W PHI 6 -7)

Week 15
Min @ LAC (L MIN 9- 5)
Chi @ GB (W CHI 8-6 / L GB 10-4)
Phi @ Was (W PHI 7-7)
LAR @ Dal (W Dal 7-7 / L LAR 7-7)

Week 16
KC @ CHI (L CHI 8- 7)
LAR @ SF (L LAR 7-8)
Dal @ PHI (W PHI 8-7 / L Dal 7-8)
GB @ MIN (W GB 11-4 / L MIN 9-6)

Week 17
Was @ Dal (W Dal 8-8)
PHI @ NYG (W PHI 9-7)
GB @ DET (W GB 12-4)
CHI @ MIN (W CHI 9-7 / MIN 9-7)
ARI @ LAR (W LAR 8-8)

I have the Vikings and Rams finishing 2-2 in their final four games.

The Bears also finishing 2-2. Too many important Bears injuries to win out against the hardest final 3 game (2 away) stretch in football.