What defines a bust at the QB position?

[JP Hochbaum]

This is not a particular discussion on Trubisky but a general discussion on what we can possibly agree on what constitutes a bust at QB.

I think a few things need to be taken into consideration before even starting a discussion on who is and isn't a bust.

1) Draft status. If someone is taken in the first round they should be considered busts if they aren't consistently in the top half of NFL QB's. They can still be super bowl winners, but if they aren't in the top half of the league they haven't lived up to expectations.

2) The state of the position at the time a player is in the NFL. Comparing stats from bad players now to say... Bradshaw is misleading.

3) Playing out one's rookie contract at minimum, combined with improvements year to year. We often look for improvements play to play or game to game, but development isn't usually linear.

So from the current stock of NFL players what list can we build as busts, that we can continually compare QB's drafted very highly to?

 

[run and shoot]

This is not a particular discussion on Trubisky but a general discussion on what we can possibly agree on what constitutes a bust at QB.

I think a few things need to be taken into consideration before even starting a discussion on who is and isn't a bust.

1) Draft status. If someone is taken in the first round they should be considered busts if they aren't consistently in the top half of NFL QB's. They can still be super bowl winners, but if they aren't in the top half of the league they haven't lived up to expectations.

2) The state of the position at the time a player is in the NFL. Comparing stats from bad players now to say... Bradshaw is misleading.

3) Playing out one's rookie contract at minimum, combined with improvements year to year. We often look for improvements play to play or game to game, but development isn't usually linear.

So from the current stock of NFL players what list can we build as busts, that we can continually compare QB's drafted very highly to?

1) Draft status. If someone is taken in the first round they should be considered busts if they aren't consistently in the top half of NFL QB's. They can still be super bowl winners, but if they aren't in the top half of the league they haven't lived up to expectations.

If your 1st round Qb is consistently in the playoffs and gets to a SB, then IMO, he's lived up to expectations. At the end of the day, winning
trumps stats

 

[Monster]

If a first rounder is no longer a starter after 3 seasons he’s a bust.

 

[Zion]

One bad game? If Bears fan's over reactions are any indication

 

[CRM 114]

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Draft position vs value to the team.

 

[Kazu2324]

Very interesting question. I don't really have an answer for, but generally, I think anyone picked in the top half of the first round should eventually become a decent/above-average starter by the end of the rookie contract. There's also issues with expectations vs. reality. If your expectation of a QB is too high and they don't meet it but it's due to your expectations, does that make them a bust? Is anyone who isn't great considered a bust? What if they were picked early but ended up being very average? That's very disappointing and I can see some people calling that player a bust, but is he really?

If you're in the 2nd half of the first/early 2nd, you should be a very serviceable starter, if not an above-average one. Now whether you can claim a bust on that, it's hard to know. Are guys like Dalton, who have never really blown it up and has always been considered middle-of-the-pack to below-average QBs, but they've been a starter almost their whole careers, are the considered busts?

Another thing to consider is, if a team is bad or QB is always hurt, but talent-wise they're amazing, are they considered busts? E.g., Andrew Luck is a phenomenal talent, but he's surrounded by a pretty bad team. He's also been injured a bunch and is on his 2nd contract. Is he a bust? Or is it still pending?

The big issue is there are so many different scenarios that play out that can impact a QB's play. How do we determine what is on the QB and what is on the management to surround QB with talent and set them up for success? A guy like Jay Cutler, who has never had support, but has always been a starter... is he a bust? I would say yes, given where he was drafted and what people were asking of him to become, he fell well short of that marker. But at the same time, he played a pretty long career and put up average stats so is he a bust? Or just an average player?

Definitely an interesting question, not really sure what the best answer would be.

 

[modo]

I see what you did there

 

[Xuder O'Clam]

A picture is worth a thousand words. But in Mitch's case, it is worth many, many more.

 

[run and shoot]

If a first rounder is no longer a starter after 3 seasons he’s a bust.

**keep injury in mind**

 

[JUSTWIN]

1st round a QB rating of 90+
2nd round a QB rating of 80+
3rd round and beyond not applicable

 

[run and shoot]

Very interesting question. I don't really have an answer for, but generally, I think anyone picked in the top half of the first round should eventually become a decent/above-average starter by the end of the rookie contract. There's also issues with expectations vs. reality. If your expectation of a QB is too high and they don't meet it but it's due to your expectations, does that make them a bust? Is anyone who isn't great considered a bust? What if they were picked early but ended up being very average? That's very disappointing and I can see some people calling that player a bust, but is he really?

If you're in the 2nd half of the first/early 2nd, you should be a very serviceable starter, if not an above-average one. Now whether you can claim a bust on that, it's hard to know. Are guys like Dalton, who have never really blown it up and has always been considered middle-of-the-pack to below-average QBs, but they've been a starter almost their whole careers, are the considered busts?

Another thing to consider is, if a team is bad or QB is always hurt, but talent-wise they're amazing, are they considered busts? E.g., Andrew Luck is a phenomenal talent, but he's surrounded by a pretty bad team. He's also been injured a bunch and is on his 2nd contract. Is he a bust? Or is it still pending?

The big issue is there are so many different scenarios that play out that can impact a QB's play. How do we determine what is on the QB and what is on the management to surround QB with talent and set them up for success? A guy like Jay Cutler, who has never had support, but has always been a starter... is he a bust? I would say yes, given where he was drafted and what people were asking of him to become, he fell well short of that marker. But at the same time, he played a pretty long career and put up average stats so is he a bust? Or just an average player?

Definitely an interesting question, not really sure what the best answer would be.

A guy like Jay Cutler, who has never had support, but has always been a starter... is he a bust? I would say yes, given where he was drafted and what people were asking of him to become, he fell well short of that marker. But at the same time, he played a pretty long career and put up average stats so is he a bust?

At some point we have to look at the metric of wins, playoff appearances and SB's. If none of those exist and the Qb is consistently hurting the team with mental on field errors, substandard performance, no leadership etc. , then ya gotta consider the guy a bust.

 

[NCChiFan]

Kilpatrick, oh wait...

 

[JP Hochbaum]

So lets build a list of current busts, with having played rookie deal already:
Round/Pick
Blaine Gabbert - 1/10
Ryan Tannehil -1/8
Andy Dalton - 2/3

Can anyone add others to this list?

 

[airtime143]

So lets build a list of current busts, with having played rookie deal already:
Round/Pick
Blaine Gabbert - 1/10
Ryan Tannehil -1/8
Andy Dalton - 2/3

Can anyone add others to this list?

Dalton is a bust?
From rookie year to his 5th year, Cincy went to the playoffs 5 times, averaging over 10 wins a year.

Compared to 5 times in the previous 28 years.

Dalton had 4 10+ win seasons in his first 7 years.
The bengals had 4 10 win seasons in the 28 years before that.

Dalton was a win for cincy no matter how you slice it.

 

[DaaBears]

Good one.

 

[Mdbearz]

If we cut Trubisky today, I think there is a chance that 31 teams would have interest in signing him, and most of those to become a starter for that team.

 

[wklink]

Since this team has a great history of QB busts this should be something we can define easily. But it really isn't.

To me, it is if the QB fails to achieve a level of success equal to the position he was drafted. This is a definition of a bust at any position but the QB is more visible so when he fails it is much more noticeable. So while a defensive lineman or a wide receiver may be a bust it rarely effects a team like having a bust at the QB position. A QB may perform ok but not up to expectations. Someone like Alex Smith in San Francisco or Sam Bradford in St. Louis could easily be called busts but they are still playing, at times well, with other teams. So in the true sense they weren't total busts but they certainly didn't live up to their top of the draft billing when picked. Grossman was a bust being a first round pick that never panned out. Hell, we could call Jim McMahon something of a bust as well. Yes he led us to the Superbowl but he never did play well after that. Lets remember he was the number 5 overall pick in 1982. He certainly doesn't have the body of work to support his adoration here but for a championship starved city he became a demi-god. But he never lived up to his potential.

As for Trubisky, we will won't really know if he is a bust for us until probably midpoint next year. Nagy's system is very complex and even an experienced QB like Alex Smith had to learn to implement it. If you look at his early numbers in 2016 they weren't that much different from Trubisky's right now. They were better than Trubisky's but Alex Smith in his first four games with Nagy as OC averaged around 240 yards per game with 5TDs and two INTS. His first two games had him with one big game and one less decent. So my jury is still out on an inexperienced QB with a lot of the strengths of an Alex Smith and maybe some of his weaknesses. It is honestly hard to tell at this point.

 

[EDPeezy]

Do you need concrete criteria?

It’s one of those things you know when you see it. I’ve never really had a problem determining if someone is a bust. I’ve never really had to ponder that. Maybe a few outliers but in general it’s not something that needs some sort of set in stone criteria. It’s obvious.

And as stated by everyone Dalton isn’t a bust

 

[FirstTimer]

Dalton is not a bust.

Busts to me are guys that proved beyond a doubt they could not play in the NFL. Either physically and/or mentally.(Early catastrophic injuries not counted.)

QB bust examples:
Ryan Leaf
Jamarcus
Akili Smith
Cade McNown
Blaine Gabbert

Guys like that.

Tim Couch I waver on because he was starting to develop until his shoulder exploded.