Why isn't Heyward a 9 hitter?

[Raskolnikov]

Look, I've followed this issue since the early early days of St. Louis experimenting and tracking the data.

What it ended up being, was that if you have a player like Pujols...moving them up one spot in the order created more runs.
Not that many people ever have a Pujols in the N.L...and it never got overly popular though Maddon experimented some with it.

When I look at Rizzo/Bryant/Baez, for me, following the best tracking to my ability of that line-up conversation, I just would think having 3 hitters of that caliber as early as possible with greater opportunity for base runners in front of them is going to pay off.

Bryant benefits the most from protection and he still gets a sandwich. I think you would force teams into considering giving in to base runners in front of Schwarber which works out for you in the end.

Now, I'm open to argument, but to me the underated aspect of decision to bat pitcher 8th...is who you put in the 9 hole.

The reason I'm always looking for a CF/RF who isn't quite a good enough hitter to be lead-off, can hit but lacks pop, has speed but can't steal 50 bases...if they could they would be a lead-off guy.

Right? But having SOME speed there is key...because you are sorta a pseudo-leadoff man.

So its these "pseudo-lead-off" men...who might be .250 hitters...and in the past if they had good enough speed...you know its a close call...like that guy has been a lead-off hitter before, you try him there sometimes...he just isn't...and its my opinion on this issue, that those are the guys you put 9 hole. Its a bonus he has plus power too for a lead-off type. Not consistently but just he has strength in him...he will hit a mistake far type of guy, who doesn't usually power up his body but knows what he is doing at the plate.

Because a 9 hitter after a potential pitcher bunt does see just a couple extra pitches with runners in scoring position. Its nice to have a 1st to 3rd guy in front of Rizzo in lead-off who can skillfully single at will.

So...its just as a guy who is pro- pitcher 8th if you have a special 2 or 3 hitter...and guy who thinks bonus when I have this plus pop, plus speed almost but not quite lead-off type guy...or guy who was a #2 early in career...

I just think Heyward is an IDEAL!! 9...THE TYPE I LOOK FOR, and that Rizzo, Baez, Bryant...any order first 3...too good to pass up. It leads to runs, and to me de-values the 4th spot just a tiche...ok..my final argument on this...is that Schwarber because of the shift...is not as ideal a 4th hitter that you can have...but by pushing runs up the line-up...ending up filling a traditional "clean-up" spot...with Schwarber...again ideal..and you want him in power situations...guys on third where a deep fly scores a sacrifice....runners on base when he does connect...etc...


then you put Murphy behind Schwarber...and you have a great chance to continue a rally and move station to station.

Am I wrong that the Cubs line-up should be this?

1. Rizzo
2. Bryant
3. Baez
4. Schwarber
5. Murphy
.
.
.
9. Heyward

Its just too good for me to pass up...I see everybody as being in an ideal baseball spot there...and Schwarber has to step up. He seems clutch to me. Go for it.

Heyward is then instructed to bat like a lead-off hitter. I think he is best when his approach is to that role, is the other thing...like a guy like him should be a lead-off type, but just doesn't steal bases to justify or have an OBP. to justify lead-off...but he acts like one at the plate...or is best suited to...

and will go 1st to third easy, and 2nd to home easy...plus speed just not bag taking speed.
you have the perfect guy for that spot...and no clear lead-off man..thats why I don't get why an open minded guy like Madden doesn't do this?

 

[DanTown]

1, all the data says that lineup construction does not have a meaningful impact on runs.

2, who’s Murphy? Did I walk into a time loop and this is August 2018?

3, Rizzo at lead off is fine I guess but my main problem is that it becomes incredibly easy to use a lefty against Heyward and Rizzo then go to a righty with Bryant and Baez.

 

[Omeletpants]

What's this Murphy shit cardboard box man?

 

[anotheridiot]

Rizzo should be hitting 5th, clean up the bases and dont get in anyones way who want to score from first on a double.
All we hear is Joe wont coach the aggressiveness out of Javy, but nobody seems to see he is doing that by only letting him go 90 feet.
I am expecting Javy to get thrown out at third when he goes on a wild pitch but Rizzo does not.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Rizzo should be hitting 5th, clean up the bases and dont get in anyones way who want to score from first on a double.
All we hear is Joe wont coach the aggressiveness out of Javy, but nobody seems to see he is doing that by only letting him go 90 feet.
I am expecting Javy to get thrown out at third when he goes on a wild pitch but Rizzo does not.

wtf?

 

[Raskolnikov]

oh shit, I saw aroster where you had daniel murphy but it was fake news.....

Contreras would be ideal in that spot when he gets back, maybe Bote or Happ in the interim?

 

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah...

ok...

you can use Heyward in that 5-7 situation then, I see that, but maybe Kemp is a lead-off guy or maybe he is an ideal 9 guy with the scenario I propose?

 

[Raskolnikov]

Almora Jr is definetly a guy I would consider for a #9 spot if I had to use him.

Heyward is a plus guy there, but Almora Jr also fits the bill.

I don't know enough about Tony Kemp or know if he has reached his peak yet where I would say #1 leadoff or #7 or #9 for Kemp?
But you get the idea.

 

[TL1961]

Rizzo should be hitting 5th, clean up the bases and dont get in anyones way who want to score from first on a double.
All we hear is Joe wont coach the aggressiveness out of Javy, but nobody seems to see he is doing that by only letting him go 90 feet.
I am expecting Javy to get thrown out at third when he goes on a wild pitch but Rizzo does not.

It would be ridiculous to drop Rizzo to 5th

 

[TL1961]

You know who should bat9th?

That day’s pitcher!

 

[Parade_Rain]

1, all the data says that lineup construction does not have a meaningful impact on runs.

I think I'd like more information than that. There has been much effort to optimize lineups in the recent past. Getting your best hitters more AB's, etc. Used to be 3 hole, then thinking was best hitter at 2.

 

[Parade_Rain]

It would be ridiculous to drop Rizzo to 5th

Heyward, Castellanos, Bryant, Baez, Rizzo. See? I just did it.

 

[Diehardfan]

Not sure why anyone here is responding at all. This guy's a Sox fan....in the Kenny Williams mode. He wants Reinsdorf to buy Free Agents right in the middle of Hahn's rebuild.

Take anything he says with a grain of salt....

 

[SilenceS]

Thread is the tits. @Novak @Scoot26 @clonetrooper264 .

 

[DanTown]

I think I'd like more information than that. There has been much effort to optimize lineups in the recent past. Getting your best hitters more AB's, etc. Used to be 3 hole, then thinking was best hitter at 2.

Sure, optimize the lineup but the point is that there is very little impact lineup construction has. The most you'd ever see is about a win of difference and that's the extreme.

 

[anotheridiot]

Heyward, Castellanos, Bryant, Baez, Rizzo. See? I just did it.

I just do not know why common sense does not work for some people, right? He is Tony Rizzo, he cant bat lower than fourth. Maybe the number crunchers would realize that Javy has taken 18 all so important walks when batting fourth?

There are just a few kinds of base runners, Fast baserunners, good base runners, daring base runners, slow base runners and Javy Baez running bases.

Which order would you want them on the bases?

But then again, we cant have L R R R L can we? So that answer is Javy Baez leads off. Heyward is finally the guy we signed 4 years ago forever now right?

 

[CSF77]

Sure, optimize the lineup but the point is that there is very little impact lineup construction has. The most you'd ever see is about a win of difference and that's the extreme.

IDK about that. Lead off should not be this hard job but for some reason these hitters just struggle with it.

I was going to toss my sippy cup on this thread but after looking at the numbers I held off. Heyward is hitting .159/.227/.377.

Now IMO all in his head on how he should be vs just get up there and do what you naturally do.

So I really don't get it. Stage fright? It is almost embarrassing.

 

[Raskolnikov]

I think I'd like more information than that. There has been much effort to optimize lineups in the recent past. Getting your best hitters more AB's, etc. Used to be 3 hole, then thinking was best hitter at 2.

Not only that, but a computer can do more advanced predictions and projections than any manager now based on previous match-up data between pitcher/hitter...and concoct an individualized best plan against any pitcher...

however...you have to know how to use data...as you could set that outcome to line them up for either the highest projection...meaning the highest chance at the most runs...or you could set it to predict the lineup for the greatest chance of at least 4 runs...or something like that...where combination of guys is taken based on consequtive hits instead of getting guys on base in front of power.

I think actually the data analysis is just too complicated to understand how best to use in actual baseball situations still, because there aren't enough people who understand both worlds...

baseball and the stats.

 

[CSF77]

I don't believe that Heyward is a 9 hitter.

I believe that he has the toolbox to be a great 1 hitter.

I would rather see how it plays out and review it honestly. He just might be in a slump or adjustment period and the gets hot again.

Regardless the impact has been 2-5 in the line up and it works out fine right now. Heyward getting on or not is really not going to matter if Bryant, Rizzo and Baez go cold that day. Or if none get on base for Happ to clean up.

 

[CSF77]

But one adjustment would be Schwarber, 6, Happ 7 catcher 8.

Schwarber takes walks. That leads to more RBI opertunites for Happ. And the catcher that day.