Perfect Offseason in your mind

[Steve_A]

Line Up

1 Tommy La Stella 3B
2 DJ LeMahieu 2B
3 Kris Bryant LF
4 Anthony Rizzo 1B
5 Wilson Contreras C
6 Ian Happ CF
7Javy Baez SS
8 Jason Heyward RF
DH Kyle Schwarber

Would like for the team to pick up Adam Eaton as OBP guy as well if he comes cheap

Starting Pitching
Yu Darvish
Kyle Hendricks
J.A. Happ
Alec Mills
Adbert Alzolay

Would like to see them take a chance on Illinois native Jake Odorizzi
Would like for them to sign Julio Teheran / Mike Minor / Chris Archer to see if they could bounce back even a slight bit

Relievers / Closer

Rowan Wick
Tony Watson
Dan Winkler
One of Liam Hendricks / Blake Treinen / Greg Holland
Craig Kimbrel

Maybe taking a chance on Kirby Yates like Jeffress last year might be and option as well if he comes cheap

Here is my ideal offseason
Know it's a long shot but just putting it our there

How about you guys out there

 

[CSF77]

They will need a bridge to Marquez and I'm not sure if they would resign Lester or go another direction and trade for a controlled pitcher and let Marquez force a rotation change vs handing him the keys.

It would make sense to use Amaya as a center piece to get a SP.

We don't know about the DH. Even then they can use Caratini and Contreras in that roll and hold a 3rd catcher for emergencies.

BP: I feel that they should resign Jeffress. He is the right choice again. Wick, Jeffress, Kimbrel is a solid 7-9. Steel should be pushed into the pen to add a talented lefty to work with Weick. So they really do not need to invest here.

But getting to adding a lefty in the rotation: IMO that should be the goal. Get a controlled lefty and center Amaya as the main chip.

My idea is Sean Manaea. He is in Arb3. (1 year of control) Pretty much give Oakland Amaya and a few lower chips to get that final year. This opens the door to a potential extension offer and a main lefty between Darvish and Hendricks that way Marquez can develop vs being rushed to impact.

As far as the line up is concerned again it would be in trades. I believe that they should lock up Baez, Rizzo and Contreras. Schwarber trade if there is a deal out there. If not let him walk after 2021. Bryant might end up a trade just because 19 mil is a justification to push out. The issue is there might not be a good return for him. He plain sucked last year and is removed from 2016. 20 mil might be his real value right now and not a bargain.

They are not going to crash the F/A market so LeMeheu is a pipe dream. I feel that the most likely scenario (70%) status que. 20% they find a trade partner. 10% they decide to not offer him arb and let him walk because they have no offers and really need to cut payroll more than over pay. This really comes down to the landscape in 2021. Will there be fans in the seats? Will it be more limited seating? Most expect even with a vax it will take 2 years to get 330mil people on board. So this will most likely will end up continuing on next year and teams will adjust by cutting where they need to.

 

[Steve_A]

・Marquez
Depends on how far the front office feels he's away from the majors doesn't it

・Amaya
I generally agree but there are a lot of guys out there on the wire who could come reasonably cheap.
If Ged wants to look long term then yes he should be trade for some young pitching but this franchise isn't the best at developing them either. I personally would like to take my chances on an established guy bouncing back for a last run with Theo.

・DH
I agree

・BP
I agree but to a certain extent but don't you want some more backups then we had this year?
This year's bullpen was quite a mess other then the 3 you mentioned.
(Kimbrel was better in the end but he's still shaky at times still)

・Lefty Starting Pitcher
That is why I have Happ and Minor in my ideal targets.
Will probably be the last of the Theo era so would like see him have a team with some sort of shot at winning it all.

・ Sean Manaea
Understand we need a lefty but Manaea?
Not a good K/9 not a great whip.
Will throw a 150 innings or so when healthy but is he worth trading for?
Especially for a year.
Know Amaya doesn't have that much value but I personally wouldn't do so.

・Lineup
I personally would like for Bryant / Rizzo and Contreras to get an extension.

Bryant
He could be the high obp middle of the lineup guy again if healthy.
Might be able to get him cheaper coming off a down year.

Javy
Great and athletic but will never be a true obp guy or a patient guy at the plate.
He's a game changer at short but you could find defense elsewhere.
(Sign Simmons this year and you're all set for at least 3 - 4 more years)

・Free agent market
Likelihood is low for all free agents but the team seriously needs contact guys.
Not saying it will happen but what if the next in line Ged agrees that it might be good to have him around a bit for his regime as well?

Revenues aren't there so I know it might be more subtraction than addition but it is a time where some teams could take advantage of the financial landscape as well.

Thanks for the reply btw @CSF77

 

[CSF77]

・Marquez
Depends on how far the front office feels he's away from the majors doesn't it

・Amaya
I generally agree but there are a lot of guys out there on the wire who could come reasonably cheap.
If Ged wants to look long term then yes he should be trade for some young pitching but this franchise isn't the best at developing them either. I personally would like to take my chances on an established guy bouncing back for a last run with Theo.

・DH
I agree

・BP
I agree but to a certain extent but don't you want some more backups then we had this year?
This year's bullpen was quite a mess other then the 3 you mentioned.
(Kimbrel was better in the end but he's still shaky at times still)

・Lefty Starting Pitcher
That is why I have Happ and Minor in my ideal targets.
Will probably be the last of the Theo era so would like see him have a team with some sort of shot at winning it all.

・ Sean Manaea
Understand we need a lefty but Manaea?
Not a good K/9 not a great whip.
Will throw a 150 innings or so when healthy but is he worth trading for?
Especially for a year.
Know Amaya doesn't have that much value but I personally wouldn't do so.

・Lineup
I personally would like for Bryant / Rizzo and Contreras to get an extension.

Bryant
He could be the high obp middle of the lineup guy again if healthy.
Might be able to get him cheaper coming off a down year.

Javy
Great and athletic but will never be a true obp guy or a patient guy at the plate.
He's a game changer at short but you could find defense elsewhere.
(Sign Simmons this year and you're all set for at least 3 - 4 more years)

・Free agent market
Likelihood is low for all free agents but the team seriously needs contact guys.
Not saying it will happen but what if the next in line Ged agrees that it might be good to have him around a bit for his regime as well?

Revenues aren't there so I know it might be more subtraction that additions but it is a time where some teams could take advantage of the financial landscape as well.

Thanks for the reply btw @CSF77

Marquez: I'm pretty sure that they are not going to rush him. That is why resigning Lester with the understanding that Marquez is the heir.

Manaea is a trade target. Oakland IMO will dangle him because that is what they do and they have Puk ready. It really has little to do with his numbers going in. It has more to do with age and upside.

But Sean has 2 years of arb. 2021 and 2022. 2023 he becomes a F/A. So in view of this he becomes a prime target and justifies a top 100 prospect return.

Well getting to the raw numbers: 2018 was shortened due to shoulder surgery. 2019 he returned for 5 games. 2020 he pitched all 11 games. Looking at the numbers he is around a 8 SO/9 guy and hovering around 2 BB/9. That is around Kyle Hendricks. You said poor WHIP. He had 1 poor WHIP year 2017. 1.40 and that was his first full season. For the most part he has been around 1.00-1.20 every other year 2020 being the 1.20 high point. I'm not sure what you concider good? Sub 1.00? That is ace level and I never said ace with him.

To me this is a solid trade Amaya and 2 toss in. It splits up the RHSP and gives a lefty that Marquez can learn from. It also pushes Miller and Azlolay to fight for a rotation spot until Marquez promotes. Which is a good thing.

Baez vs Bryant

It comes down to Boras. Boras will inflate KB's value and that is not a good thing. Javy's OBA will always prevent him from commanding a major contract. 20-25 is his market value right now. If he had a .400 OBA he would command 30-35 mil. That is the reality.


Revenues aren't there so I know it might be more subtraction that additions but it is a time where some teams could take advantage of the financial landscape as well.

They pretty much are. What they know is 40% of revenues were lost at the box. That means teams are going in with 60% of available resources as a base line. Then they have to factor in disinterest due to fan separation. That factors in the 60% of revenues. Now some feel that there will be fans going in but that comes with risk. NFL is getting screwed there and MLB really dodged that bullet for the most part until the play offs where they let limited fans in and Turner got covid. This IMO will be the risk worth taking to save the year. So I would expect box seats near the dug outs clear. The spaced out seating. Like a family can take up a few seats together but there has to be 6 foot between families. So we are talking about 60% capacity.

 

[Steve_A]

・Lester
I know what he means for the team but do you really want him back?

・Manaea
You make a strong case and I changed my mind
Would like for them to aim higher but agree nonetheless

 

[CSF77]

・Lester
I know what he means for the team but do you really want him back?

・Manaea
You make a strong case and I changed my mind
Would like for them to aim higher but agree nonetheless

Regarding Lester, it would be a cheap bridge. You know what you are getting and that is innings. Anything past 5 mil is a bad investment because if defeats the point of cutting him in the first place. This is the not contending method.

Manaea is pretty much what Q was going in. We got a taste of what Q was at times but in general he fell short. I would never do this trade unless it came from solid depth. Catcher is the Cubs strongest suit and losing Amaya is not a major loss.

 

[knoxville7]

Regarding Lester, it would be a cheap bridge. You know what you are getting and that is innings. Anything past 5 mil is a bad investment because if defeats the point of cutting him in the first place. This is the not contending method.

Manaea is pretty much what Q was going in. We got a taste of what Q was at times but in general he fell short. I would never do this trade unless it came from solid depth. Catcher is the Cubs strongest suit and losing Amaya is not a major loss.

are you even getting innings from Lester anymore? His longest outing this year was 6 innings. He didn’t even make it 4 innings in 3 of his 12 starts. That’s 25% of his starts he didn’t last 4 innings. And his innings were bad too, as evidenced by that 5.14 ERA. Throw in the fact his stuff isn’t there anymore and he couldnt fool college hitters anymore, and it’s time to move on. Give the 5th spot to a youngster

 

[Steve_A]

@knoxville7

Agree on Lester but would like to see them sign some of the below for Theo's last run.

Jake Odorizzi / Julio Teheran / Mike Minor / Chris Archer

Think the man deserves one last shot at the crown.
Even if the odds are low.

 

[CSF77]

are you even getting innings from Lester anymore? His longest outing this year was 6 innings. He didn’t even make it 4 innings in 3 of his 12 starts. That’s 25% of his starts he didn’t last 4 innings. And his innings were bad too, as evidenced by that 5.14 ERA. Throw in the fact his stuff isn’t there anymore and he couldnt fool college hitters anymore, and it’s time to move on. Give the 5th spot to a youngster

After Theo leaving we might not even see this. I'm expecting a off load right now.

 

[Steve_A]

@CSF77
How much of the team do you think would be turned over though?

Probably depends on how long Jed thinks the rebuild will last as well but,

Would guys like Darvish (34) be traded as well?

 

[CSF77]

@CSF77
How much of the team do you think would be turned over though?

Probably depends on how long Jed thinks the rebuild will last as well but,

Would guys like Darvish (34) be traded as well?

I see Bryant non tendered. I'm pretty sure that is what Rickett's wants and he decided to resign vs take the heat from the city.

 

[Castor76]

Darvish decision comes down to this. Can the Cubs build themselves into a contender for the 2022 season? If yes then you keep him because you'll need tat level of pitching. If that answer is no, then they should truly consider trading him. An Ace level pitcher with 2 plus years of control or perhaps even three if done before the season starts. That should get quite the haul.

 

[CSF77]

Darvish decision comes down to this. Can the Cubs build themselves into a contender for the 2022 season? If yes then you keep him because you'll need tat level of pitching. If that answer is no, then they should truly consider trading him. An Ace level pitcher with 2 plus years of control or perhaps even three if done before the season starts. That should get quite the haul.

2022 is another story. If they offload it is to reduce payroll and prep for 2022 and full stadiums. 2021 IMO is going to be limited seating and limited revenues.

It wouldn't shock me that they non tender Bryant, Schwarber, Ryan, Almora, Martinez, Rea, Winkler. 33 mil. Replace internal

The biggest issue would be left field or center field. I would kick the tires on Rusney Castillo on a minor league deal. No loss if it doesn't work out. Billy Hamilton if he takes 2 mil. I wouldn't invest here with Davis pending.

Rotation they need to replace 1 arm. If they go internal Miller would get first shot. Externally Jokish would be a option to bring back to the states after his success in Korea. It shouldn't take much to sign him. Miller would be a depth piece then.

Steele is another option internally and it might be a realistic option if they feel that Burl Carraway is ready on opening day.

Regardless they can drop 30 mil and have some quality talent pending. Pulling a mulligan this year and extending Baez, Contreras and Rizzo should be the right call then give that year to youth upwelling > winning a division. Add to it playing for a draft pick is not a dumb plan in a transition year. We have had a good run and we need another and that takes adjusting vs running the horses dead.

 

[Steve_A]

@CSF77 @Castor76

Was thinking but why keep Baez and Rizzo?
Baez might not hit again and first basemans are easier to find and also cheaper to buy right?
And it’s not like Rizzo is getting younger either during the rebuild.

 

[CSF77]

@CSF77 @Castor76

Was thinking but why keep Baez and Rizzo?
Baez might not hit again and first basemans are easier to find and also cheaper to buy right?
And it’s not like Rizzo is getting younger either during the rebuild.

Jed has carried Rizzo from Boston to S.D then to here. You can hang your hat on that extension.

Baez is the most likely to resign. But if a major offer hits expect a deal.

Expected Arb cases:

Bryant 19M
Baez 11.250
Schwarber: 8
Contreras 5.5
Happ 3
Martinez 2.2
Almora 1.6
Tepera 1.250
Winkler 1.250
Caratini 1
Ryan 1k
Rea 900k

Italic= expected cuts/trades.

The main issue here is D. Baez is GG. Bryant is not. Baez will cost around 9 mil less in a preimum position. Cubs have Bote under contract right now. D is a wash at 3B here. Bote is a bridge to Howard. Baez resigning moves to 3B as he ages.

I just see cutting 30 mil the primary mover and then going after Baez and Rizzo in extensions.

Here is the thing. Jed came into SD and fire sale hit. He came here and fire sale. He knows how to push players and get decent returns.

Marquez: pitched 1 game. Might be MLB ready.

Davis: Would be in Tenn/Iowa if last year was normal. I just see him prepping to take over CF mid seson.

Amaya they could hold as a back up catcher and let Contreras and Caratini swap C/DH. It gives him a year of exposure on the bench learning the league.

Howard Rook ball last year and expect sitting in the lower development league. He is 3 years out.

Roederer Same as Davis. He also has upside. I see him not being rushed up. He could project at a corner OF when Happ and Heyward are short term.

Alzolay in the rotation

Franklin should be in the upper levels next year. I saw him spending a full year in MB and this year at Tenn. So I expect him close and could be a option in a year.

Jensen About a year behind Franklin. No projections here.

Stumpf 2B should be at Tenn. Nico has more upside. This guy is tradable.

Carraway could end up a pushbutton. He pushes 98 with a plus curve. He was signed as a high leverage relief arm and seeing him in the opening day pen is not a reach.

So over all there is some options going on where they can back fill this year with league min guys and cut pay roll. Then take 2021 as a redevelopment year.

IMO this is the right move. Get payroll under control. Extend who you want. Get the youth in place. Then going into 2022 decide on a plan of action. SS should be deep and if Baez wants to bolt that is fine. There will be other options on the market and a opening to fill.

Now if they want to compete and stay cheap.

Drop Schwarber. Move Bryant to LF. start Bote at 3B. Cut the rest. Back fill. Then trade Bryant at the deadline and promote Davis. Bryant's value is very low right now and should be better mid season. This would be a 15 mil payroll cut but still potentially contending.

 

[Castor76]

For me, you ke

@CSF77 @Castor76

Was thinking but why keep Baez and Rizzo?
Baez might not hit again and first basemans are easier to find and also cheaper to buy right?
And it’s not like Rizzo is getting younger either during the rebuild.

For me, you keep Baez because you hope/bet on the 2018-19 production while still getting the GG defense. The key, imo, is doing the most to keep him in situations where he performs best, which is with runners on. He's also most likely to sign long term for reasonable money. You keep Rizzo because same on the money, you need at least one older guy to be that example for the younger guys. And I think too much turn over is also not a good thing.

 

[CSF77]

For me, you ke

For me, you keep Baez because you hope/bet on the 2018-19 production while still getting the GG defense. The key, imo, is doing the most to keep him in situations where he performs best, which is with runners on. He's also most likely to sign long term for reasonable money. You keep Rizzo because same on the money, you need at least one older guy to be that example for the younger guys. And I think too much turn over is also not a good thing.

I agree.

Baez should get around what Theo paid on Heyward. 8 years/$184M . And looking at it that is a good signing for Baez. Both are similar players where the value is in the glove first. Howard is still 19 and You would expect around 22 YO when he is ready. At this point Javy will be 30 and at that point move him to 3B and start the younger Howard at SS. Bote holds the fort at 3B until then.

The real question is LF here. The could go Bryant or Schwarber or trade both and look outside for a OF.

Line up wise:

RH:
Contreras, Baez, Bote, Horner
LH
Rizzo, Heyward

SH
Happ, Caratini (if there is a DH)

So I just see a LH bat as a priority in the OF. Not a necessity though. But with Davis close you really do not want to invest heavy here.

In a vacuum say they trade Bryant. LAD want to deal.

Zach McKinstry. IF/OF Bats left. Got up to the majors last year. Primarily a 2B but has seen action in the OF.
Add a arm. Don't matter. I would prefer Mitch White. Also got up to the majors in the pen but has been a starter in the minors.

This provides depth to 2B and potentially a LF option. 5th starter with control. His value dipped while adjusting to major league baseballs in AAA. This opens the door to a deal on both. And it fills 2 needs going into 2021.

 

[PickSix]

Hard pass on giving Baez $184 million.

 

[CSF77]

Hard pass on giving Baez $184 million.

• $20M signing bonus (paid in four $5M installments, each April 1, 2024-27)
• 16:$15M, 17:$21.5M, 18:$21.5M, 19:$20M, 20:$21M, 21:$21M, 22:$22M, 23:$22M

That is what Jason got. This is what I have said Javy has been worth.

The AAV is on the mark. He becomes a FA at 29-opening day 30. So If you are saying it is the years (38 YO) I could agree. But IMO it is taken care of in contract structure. Front load and have the last 2 years at 15M or shave off years with team opts like Lester with mutual kickers that guarantee it. A strait shave off at the end in years he may move on because this deal is not game changing.

 

[PickSix]

Opt outs with less guaranteed maybe.
I love watching his flash and brilliance when it works, but I think that causes us to way over value his true overall worth. Assuming he reverts back to his 2018 year imo is bad gamble. The truth for Javy is probably somewhere in between 2018 and his 2020 train wreck which again imo doesn’t warrant this kind of deal.
I’d much prefer a higher avg $ per year now with a much shorter period giving him time to hit the market one more time for big $. By then we know more what he provides and how our recent draft pick develops.
If the market gives him that big long term secured guarantee at those numbers, I wouldn’t be the buyer.