Bears 1st round pick favorite according to Sportsbooks

[gallagher]

In today's NFL, if you're taking a QB in the first, you're expecting him to start at some point in year one. The only notable exception being Jordan Love because he has a top 3 QB in front of him.

Considering that and our investment in Dalton this year, why wouldn't you just wait til next year to invest a 1st rounder? You've got Dalton already declared the starter and he's not terrible. He's only on a one year deal, and if he doesn't work out, you're going to have a top 15 pick anyway. Might as well just wait to invest your first next year anyway and get some pieces this year that could be put around that eventual first round pick QB who would be expected to start right away anyway.

Because I don't know which QBs are available next year but I do know who is in the draft this year. If we have a chance to trade up for a good QB prospect that one believes in, I think it's foolish not to try.

I know it bit us in the ass with Trubisky, but fact is that Pace believed in him and made the move to get him. If Pace thinks Jones or Fields is going to be great in the NFL, then he is stupid to not try to get them. QB is that important.

 

[Nelly]

Because I don't know which QBs are available next year but I do know who is in the draft this year. If we have a chance to trade up for a good QB prospect that one believes in, I think it's foolish not to try.

I know it bit us in the ass with Trubisky, but fact is that Pace believed in him and made the move to get him. If Pace thinks Jones or Fields is going to be great in the NFL, then he is stupid to not try to get them. QB is that important.

You're completely missing the point. Every one, every year, makes the case why THIS is the guy.... and they're wrong, every single year. The reality is just that it's really hard to scout the QB position, moreso than the other positions. People are straight wrong no matter how good they feel about the guy they picked. We got to see it for the last four years and how Pace loved him some Mitch Trubisky (at least the first 3 years).

Furthermore, the expectation is that if you're spending a top 10 pick on a QB, you want to come away with at least a top 15 QB. People often say top 10 QB. Right off the bat, your guy isn't going to be as good as the top 10 QBs. Compared to how many guys are picked in the 1st round (let alone near the top), your chances of getting one in the top 10 are pretty minuscule. Then, good luck even identifying that guy. 2011 had Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder go in the top 12. 2012 had Luck, RG and Tannehill go top 8. The first QB to be picked in 2013 was EJ Manual. 2014 saw Bortles go 3rd. 2015 saw Winston/Mariota go 1/2. 2016 saw Goff/Wentz go 1/2 with Paxton Lynch going in the late 1st. 2017 we grabbed Trubisky while you saw a real anomaly with Mahomes and Watson turning out as good as they are. 2018 had the decent Mayfield go 1st while Darnold, Allen and Rosen went in the top 10. 2019 had Kyler Murray 1st with Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins going in the top 15. The jury is out on 2020 but Burrow/Herbert look good while Tua's injury concerns have already surfaced.

Out of all those guys I listed, you could make the argument that three of them are top 10 QBs (Mahomes, Watson and Allen). Outside of that I think you've got enough to keep rolling with Murray, Burrow, Herbert and Mayfield. Obviously Tannehill is solid but it took him busting in Miami first. Being generous, that's 8 guys... out of the 26 guys I listed that were picked in the 1st round the last 10 years, the vast majority of which in or near the top 10. Just using that generous percentage, you've got less than a 1 in 3 chance, purely statistically, of picking a guy you're not looking to replace within the next 5 years or so... and about a 1 in 10 chance in finding a top 10 guy.

 

[gallagher]

No I got your point, I just disagree. Nobody knows how a kid will pan out regardless of position, but QB is so important that you have to constantly try. If a GM is confident in a QB, then there are no excuses to not at least try to draft him. It may set the franchise back, but so will not drafting a QB.

The odds are never great that a QB will make the leap from college to the pros. And hell, if Pace thinks they all are going to suck, then he shouldn't pick one. Waiting until you have a top draft pick, and hoping you have faith in the QB available, is just as much a waste of time and far more passive. I can forgive failure, but playing the waiting game for a QB is borderline cowardice in my book.

 

[vanavyman]

You're completely missing the point. Every one, every year, makes the case why THIS is the guy.... and they're wrong, every single year. The reality is just that it's really hard to scout the QB position, moreso than the other positions. People are straight wrong no matter how good they feel about the guy they picked. We got to see it for the last four years and how Pace loved him some Mitch Trubisky (at least the first 3 years).

Furthermore, the expectation is that if you're spending a top 10 pick on a QB, you want to come away with at least a top 15 QB. People often say top 10 QB. Right off the bat, your guy isn't going to be as good as the top 10 QBs. Compared to how many guys are picked in the 1st round (let alone near the top), your chances of getting one in the top 10 are pretty minuscule. Then, good luck even identifying that guy. 2011 had Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder go in the top 12. 2012 had Luck, RG and Tannehill go top 8. The first QB to be picked in 2013 was EJ Manual. 2014 saw Bortles go 3rd. 2015 saw Winston/Mariota go 1/2. 2016 saw Goff/Wentz go 1/2 with Paxton Lynch going in the late 1st. 2017 we grabbed Trubisky while you saw a real anomaly with Mahomes and Watson turning out as good as they are. 2018 had the decent Mayfield go 1st while Darnold, Allen and Rosen went in the top 10. 2019 had Kyler Murray 1st with Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins going in the top 15. The jury is out on 2020 but Burrow/Herbert look good while Tua's injury concerns have already surfaced.

Out of all those guys I listed, you could make the argument that three of them are top 10 QBs (Mahomes, Watson and Allen). Outside of that I think you've got enough to keep rolling with Murray, Burrow, Herbert and Mayfield. Obviously Tannehill is solid but it took him busting in Miami first. Being generous, that's 8 guys... out of the 26 guys I listed that were picked in the 1st round the last 10 years, the vast majority of which in or near the top 10. Just using that generous percentage, you've got less than a 1 in 3 chance, purely statistically, of picking a guy you're not looking to replace within the next 5 years or so... and about a 1 in 10 chance in finding a top 10 guy.

Houston, KC, and Buffalo were not wrong. You can't be scared to try and be great. Sucking every year gets old. We have to get the QB spot right and then finishing building.

 

[vanavyman]

I've been watching this shit for over 50 years. If you are young maybe you aren't tired of sucking yet.

 

[gallagher]

Houston, KC, and Buffalo were not wrong. You can't be scared to try and be great. Sucking every year gets old. We have to get the QB spot right and then finishing building.

I'm with you here. Sitting around and waiting for your guy at the *right* spot just means you're waiting around while everyone else takes the risk. Most of them fail, but a few find that rare gem of a QB. I'd rather fail boldly than miss out for being cowardly.

That's just my take. I'm aware a lot of people prefer to have a lot of lottery tickets and are reluctant to trade picks. Not my cup of tea.

 

[Mjiton]

Unless a good QB falls I like Tevin at 20. Or even Toney.

 

[Nelly]

I'm with you here. Sitting around and waiting for your guy at the *right* spot just means you're waiting around while everyone else takes the risk. Most of them fail, but a few find that rare gem of a QB. I'd rather fail boldly than miss out for being cowardly.

That's just my take. I'm aware a lot of people prefer to have a lot of lottery tickets and are reluctant to trade picks. Not my cup of tea.

If we have a top 3 pick and thus don't need to trade anything to take one of the guys then by all means, take a swing. Trading numerous first round picks and more to get in position to take a guy who, by the numbers is twice as likely to be replaceable than is to be your long-term starter? Not a smart move.

I'm all for the Bears maybe trading back to the very late 1st or early 2nd and taking a guy like David Mills if you think he's got some talent that can be developed by sitting for a year. I'm just not in favor of neglecting numerous holes on the roster for a dice roll at QB.

 

[Aesopian]

Tevin Jenkins-- Oklahoma State

Image him in the second

 

[Bears_804]

Didn't you all hear, we are moving up for Fields!

This aged well!

 

[modo]

Didn't you all hear, we are moving up for Fields!

 

[KingInTheNorth]

This aged well!

#calledit