Expectations for Justin Fields vs other good rookies.

[WindyCity]

17 games I would expect

3800 yards 26 TDs 10 INTs

With another 500 and 5 on the ground

 

[Canth]

To think of it another way, I have heard a couple of Chicago media people mention that Fields could maybe get the Bears into being a top 20 offense. IMO, yards are nice but points is what matters.

To get into being a modern day top 20 offense from a points perspective, you need to come up with ~24 ppg.

At 30 TD's, Fields would give you ~1.76 TD's per game, so that is just a touch over 12 ppg. So, Fields would account for half the points. Then you are looking at the running game, special teams, and defensive scores for the other half of the points.

On edit: For a rookie qb of this caliber, that seems reasonable to me.

 

[WindyCity]

Sam Darnold Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

All Combine and Draft-Related Analysis, News, Video, and Biographical Information for Sam Darnold

www.nfl.com

Justin Fields Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

All Combine and Draft-Related Analysis, News, Video, and Biographical Information for Justin Fields

www.nfl.com

Sam Darnold might very well be the perfect example of how to screw up a rookie QB.

He had a shit situation.

But his issues were obvious at USC and they are still his issues. He still hates pressure and throws way too many picks. That is what he did at USC.

 

[Aquineas]

Okay, I'll bite. I predict his first 16 games will be:

3994 yards, 37 TDs, 16 Ints

It will come down to how quickly #76 learns his craft.

 

[nc0gnet0]

He had a shit situation.

But his issues were obvious at USC and they are still his issues. He still hates pressure and throws way too many picks. That is what he did at USC.

Ok, so in some alternate universe, where both Fields and Darnold are in the same draft class, and both are available when Pace makes his selection, who do you think he picks? And this is without any knowledge of how he did with NY.

 

[nc0gnet0]

And I still can't figure out why so many were calling for Pace and Nagy's job prior to the draft, but not now? What has changed? Almost any GM would have done that, he just got dam lucky the draft fell the way it did. While opinion, I have no doubt in my mind that if Fields was off the board, he would have done the same thing for Mac Jones.

Long story short, I think it is still the same GM/HC that the Bears had prior to the draft, even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while.

 

[SlickWilly]

Ok, so in some alternate universe, where both Fields and Darnold are in the same draft class, and both are available when Pace makes his selection, who do you think he picks? And this is without any knowledge of how he did with NY.

Pretty sure Nagy is the main reason the Bears took Fields. So since he's still here, I think the Bears still pick Fields over Darnold.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Pretty sure Nagy is the main reason the Bears took Fields. So since he's still here, I think the Bears still pick Fields over Darnold.

Well, it's all just speculation, but I think he would have chosen Darnold.

 

[Black Rainbow]

And I still can't figure out why so many were calling for Pace and Nagy's job prior to the draft, but not now? What has changed? Almost any GM would have done that, he just got dam lucky the draft fell the way it did. While opinion, I have no doubt in my mind that if Fields was off the board, he would have done the same thing for Mac Jones.

Long story short, I think it is still the same GM/HC that the Bears had prior to the draft, even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while.

Yep.

Posters had the pitchforks & torches out when Russell Wilson didn't happen...but that was never going to happen.

I've learned to live with the QB fan boi types, it's the explanation for the behavior you described.

 

[nc0gnet0]

3900 yards 29 TDs 16 INTs

With another 400 and 4

Not convinced on the O-line. I think his sack totals might hurt is total yards.

 

[nc0gnet0]

Yep.

Posters had the pitchforks & torches out when Russell Wilson didn't happen...but that was never going to happen.

I've learned to live with the QB fan boi types, it's the explanation for the behavior you described.

Don't get me wrong, I think Fields is a fine prospect, I think he was the second best QB of the draft. This is nothing against Fields, I just think Nagy and Pace are still the same idiots they were before the draft, nothing would instill confidence in me that they can develop Fields, and prevent what happened to Darnold to happen to Fields.

 

[botfly10]

If Justin Fields starts week one in Matt Nagy's well oiled machine, what kinda passing numbers do you expect?

Seeing how we used a 1st round pick on Fields and traded the 2022 1st round pick, the expectations are immediately high. You don't make that trade for a guy that ends up like Sam Darnold. That trade was made because the Bears feel he's got top QB potential - not just a franchise guy - but something special like the men below.

I went to the trouble of adjusting some of the NFL's top young QBs as if they played 16 games...and here are the numbers. I used Lamar Jackson's second year because everyone knew he was a super rough prospect his rookie year. I understand if ppl think that he shouldn't be on the list - that's fine.

Looking at these guys: Isn't 3,800 yards and 30 TDs reasonable for Justin Fields in Nagy's 4th year of coaching? Considering the extra 1st round pick we gave up?

Patrick Mahomes - 5,097 yards, 50 TDs, 12 INTS (16 starts)
Justin Herbert - 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs (16 starts)
Baker Mayfield - 4,257 yards, 30 TDs, 16 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Deshaun Watson - 3,883 yards, 43 TDs, 18 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Kyler Murray - 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs (16 starts)
Joe Burrow - 4,300 yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs (Adjusted for 16 games)
Lamar Jackson - 3,335 yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs (2nd year, adjusted for 16 games.)

*maybe I'll add in everyone's rushing stats if this thread has interest.

Seems like Mahomes should get an asterisk cause he got to sit a year and had 2 offseasons

 

[gallagher]

I wished you would stop complain about extra draft picks. It doesn’t make him better or worse because of where he was drafted, how he was drafted. He is the same Justin Fields if we drafted him straight up, in the 2nd rd, or traded the whole draft for him. The expectations are high because of how he played in college and because we haven’t had a quarterback since who knows when, not where he was drafted or how many draft picks we used to get him. My GOD.

I'm of the same mind. Draft picks are scratch off tickets, and it doesn't work like the opportunity cost of a business transaction. That kind of stuff applies to salary, not fucking draft picks.

On the topic, though, I don't care what his stats are. Really. It's wins, and how much a part he is of those wins. If he doesn't throw a single touchdown, but marches you all the way down the field and he wins, then fucking great. If he throws a bunch of short passes, who cares if you win? People get obsessed with stat lines because they think that that somehow equates success. The win column is what makes a winning team. Otherwise Stat Padford would be considered great for putting up so many yards while losing games

 

[nc0gnet0]

I'm of the same mind. Draft picks are scratch off tickets, and it doesn't work like the opportunity cost of a business transaction. That kind of stuff applies to salary, not fucking draft picks.

On the topic, though, I don't care what his stats are. Really. It's wins, and how much a part he is of those wins. If he doesn't throw a single touchdown, but marches you all the way down the field and he wins, then fucking great. If he throws a bunch of short passes, who cares if you win? People get obsessed with stat lines because they think that that somehow equates success. The win column is what makes a winning team. Otherwise Stat Padford would be considered great for putting up so many yards while losing games

Unfortunately that has been disproven many times, but nice try.

 

[Black Rainbow]

I'm of the same mind. Draft picks are scratch off tickets, and it doesn't work like the opportunity cost of a business transaction. That kind of stuff applies to salary, not fucking draft picks.

On the topic, though, I don't care what his stats are. Really. It's wins, and how much a part he is of those wins. If he doesn't throw a single touchdown, but marches you all the way down the field and he wins, then fucking great. If he throws a bunch of short passes, who cares if you win? People get obsessed with stat lines because they think that that somehow equates success. The win column is what makes a winning team. Otherwise Stat Padford would be considered great for putting up so many yards while losing games

Around the time Mitch got drafted posters here put an emphasis on getting appropriate value for draft picks. Back then, even I thought they put too much emphasis on it because they wouldn't draft a safety or a guard with a first...even if he started for 8 to 10 years because you could get those in the 2nd. We're talking about getting picky about one draft pick for one player.

I don't know what happened to those guys...but today the board standards are so effing low...

...like let's send 2 to or 3 picks for ONE player and as long as he starts on our bullshit roster for a few years and is completely average it was totally worth it! It doesn't even matter if he plays the position he was drafted for and leaves a hole there until the next draft!

 

[gallagher]

Unfortunately that has been disproven many times, but nice try.

Eh I just wanted to make a jab at you and Detroit generally.

But for real, Fields is capable of getting plenty of stats. I just don't care what the final numbers are just like I dont care about highlight reels. They don't tell you whether or not you have a winning team, they are just snippets of a larger story

 

[and 69 others]

55,000 yds 443 TDs -25 Int

MVP

 

[botfly10]

Unfortunately that has been disproven many times, but nice try.

what has been disproven many times?

 

[bears51/40]

3900 yards 29 TDs 16 INTs

With another 400 and 4

Not convinced on the O-line. I think his sack totals might hurt is total yards.

My numbers for Fields would be similar to what Baker Mayfield put up as a rookie in 14 starts. Give Fields that many starts and I think it would be close to this.

3650 yards 27 td's 12 int's sacked 28 times


525 rush yards 6 td's.

Also not sure about the OL, but both Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert played behind horrible OL's and put up the best numbers of any rookie QB's, so I don't know if it would hurt Fields overall numbers to much.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

And I still can't figure out why so many were calling for Pace and Nagy's job prior to the draft, but not now? What has changed? Almost any GM would have done that, he just got dam lucky the draft fell the way it did. While opinion, I have no doubt in my mind that if Fields was off the board, he would have done the same thing for Mac Jones.

Long story short, I think it is still the same GM/HC that the Bears had prior to the draft, even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while.

I agree.

But that blind squirrel getting that nut gave him the energy to last one more day.

The same goes for Nagy/Pace. However; it was the insanity that happened leading up to the draft and during the draft (nuts, all of it) that gave the blind Pace and Nagy another chance to show something. Pace at least has some later round success. Nagy needs to show something this year. Zero excuses for him.