Bears sign DE Al-Quadin Muhammad

[remydat]

Do you think there is a possibility that the time value of picks might be different from team to team? That rigid formulas like the draft value chart or this seemingly arbitrary rule that picks the next year are worth about a round less than the current draft year don't really account for the differing stations of NFL franchises?

Sure I think it is possible. I just don't think it is probable and you have offered no evidence to suggest it is probable beyond because you said so.

Also, what makes it more likely is that teams who maybe plan to address edge rusher in the draft might find themselves failing to do so. Or they'll suffer an off-season or early training camp injury. If somebody was going to wow the Bears into trading Robert Quinn it probably would have already happened by now.

But who knows exactly, it just seems to be a safer bet that you'll get more for him if you sit on him a few more months than just sell him to the highest bidder now.

Again there is nothing here that makes your scenario more likely. Like how many Edge rushers are you aware of that got traded in the summer after the draft and did their value increase?

It just seems you are using terms like more likely when in reality all you have expressed is a possibility of unknown probability. It is fine if you want to believe that your possibility is more likely. I am just telling you that no one has to accept it simply because you deem it to be true.

 

[DammitFullerTurnUrHead!]

I’d rather have the stability of a veteran than another rookie to develop this year…

Why? We are going to be a losing team regardless.

 

[UChiLAbear]

#MFcalledit

Browns trade BM to Indy for #42 this season and 1 and 2 next season, Browns trade #42 (Colts)and #44(Browns) for Robert Quinn

Bears go into draft with picks 39,42,44,48 and 71 in the 1st 3 rds

Love to see it.....i have my doubts

 

[Visionman]

Why? We are going to be a losing team regardless.

Because as I said before, a decent defense will also help Fields develop. If we are behind every game and needing to pass 50 times to catch up, it’s not going to be to his benefit long term.

 

[Montucky]

Sure I think it is possible. I just don't think it is probable and you have offered no evidence to suggest it is probable beyond because you said so.

Again there is nothing here that makes your scenario more likely. Like how many Edge rushers are you aware of that got traded in the summer after the draft and did their value increase?

It just seems you are using terms like more likely when in reality all you have expressed is a possibility of unknown probability. It is fine if you want to believe that your possibility is more likely. I am just telling you that no one has to accept it simply because you deem it to be true.

This is where I have to ask myself if I really want to endure Remy squirm and squeeze increasingly baffling and argumentative excuses for him forgetting about the Khalil Mack trade of 2018.

 

[remydat]

This is where I have to ask myself if I really want to endure Remy squirm and squeeze increasingly baffling and argumentative excuses for him forgetting about the Khalil Mack trade of 2018.

Can you read? I asked did their value increased. Mack would have cost 2 first round picks regardless. The Raiders did not wait until the summer because his value increased. They waited because they intially were not trying to trade him.

 

[Montucky]

Can you read? I asked did their value increased. Mack would have cost 2 first round picks regardless. The Raiders did not wait until the summer because his value increased. They waited because they intially were not trying to trade him.

This is where I revisit the initial question I was posing to myself, whether it was worth it to deal with you on this, and come to the resounding conclusion that it's a total waste of time. Somehow the onus is on me to provide all this mountains of evidence of things we cannot know (or cannot even be known) while your blind assertions that "draft picks next year are worth one round less of a draft pick this year" just pass for common knowledge.

 

[remydat]

This is where I revisit the initial question I was posing to myself, whether it was worth it to deal with you on this, and come to the resounding conclusion that it's a total waste of time. Somehow the onus is on me to provide all this mountains of evidence of things we cannot know (or cannot even be known) while your blind assertions that "draft picks next year are worth one round less of a draft pick this year" just pass for common knowledge.

2020 NFL Draft Trades: Minnesota Vikings make deal with Chicago Bears

An inter-division trade? That’s strange.

www.google.com

As this shows, the Bears traded a 2021 4th round pick for a 2020 5th rounder.

Now again where is your evidence for your claim as I have provided clear evidence for mine.

 

[Montucky]

2020 NFL Draft Trades: Minnesota Vikings make deal with Chicago Bears

An inter-division trade? That’s strange.

www.google.com

As this shows, the Bears traded a 2021 4th round pick for a 2020 5th rounder.

Now again where is your evidence for your claim as I have provided clear evidence for mine.

You understand that just because this happened does not make it a universal rule. For instance, would a 2022 first round pick be worth a 2023 second round pick?

 

[remydat]

You understand that just because this happened does not make it a universal rule. For instance, would a 2022 first round pick be worth a 2023 second round pick?

You claimed I had no evidence. I provided an example. Do you have an example to prove your claim?

And you have it backwards. A 2022 2nd round pick would be worth a 2023 first round pick.

 

[Urblock]

This is where I have to ask myself if I really want to endure Remy squirm and squeeze increasingly baffling and argumentative excuses for him forgetting about the Khalil Mack trade of 2018.

The idiot tucky is back. Zion runs and tucky shows up. LOL

 

[PrideisBears]

The idiot tucky is back. Zion runs and tucky shows up. LOL

Did Zion return to his light skin minority brethren?

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Based on name alone there are going to be a ton of posters here who hate this guy.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Lol More defensive signings to help Justin Fields next year… wait

Well the defense gets Justin the ball back.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

I’d rather have the stability of a veteran than another rookie to develop this year…

Who cares? The Bears aren't making the Super Bowl this year.

Develop, develop, develop.

 

[pfcmsh]

You forgot Trevis Gipson.

I think Trevis is gonna be a monster

 

[JoJoBoxer]

This is where I revisit the initial question I was posing to myself, whether it was worth it to deal with you on this, and come to the resounding conclusion that it's a total waste of time. Somehow the onus is on me to provide all this mountains of evidence of things we cannot know (or cannot even be known) while your blind assertions that "draft picks next year are worth one round less of a draft pick this year" just pass for common knowledge.

Remember how people on here always say that NFL people know a whole hell of a lot more than we do?

Well, it was an NFL person (Jimmy Johnson) who came up with the draft charts and other teams started using them as a good estimate of draft worth. If I recall, it was that same person who came up with a draft pick next year being worth one whole round less this year (getting a 2023 3rd rounder being worth a 2022 4th rounder).

It is pretty obvious if you think about it (using averages, that is).

Would you trade the 15th pick in 2022 for the 15th pick in 2023 without getting anything else?

Of course not. Any GM who did that today would be fired tomorrow.

Funny thing is that the people, who say that a 1st round pick next year is still a first round pick, so there should not be a net loss (of 1 round), are in effect saying that a 2023 1st round pick should be enough to get a 2022 first round pick without any other compensation, or exactly for which the GM above would be fired.


So, Jimmy Johnson, who made the draft trade chart decades ago (yet basically still used today) and said that a draft pick next year is worth one less round in this year's value and simple logic both say what you are arguing against, is not as knowledgeable with the draft than you are?

Shouldn't you just bow to an NFL man (and logic) who knows more about dealing with the NFL draft (he basically wrote the book (chart) on it) than you or I or anyone else on CCS?

Or else, prove to us that you know more about the draft than Jimmy Johnson.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

You understand that just because this happened does not make it a universal rule. For instance, would a 2022 first round pick be worth a 2023 second round pick?

You have it all backwards.

A 2022 pick is worth a 2023 round pick but one round lower.

A 2022 1st round pick is worth a 2023 1st round pick and more (probably a 2024 1st round pick).
A 2022 2nd round pick is worth a 2023 1st round pick.
A 2022 3rd round pick is worth a 2023 2nd round pick and so on.

Think of it as "credit card fees" for getting what you want a year early.

Let's look at your example:

Would your credit card company give me One million dollars today and expect me to pay them back, exactly one year later One hundred thousand dollars?

I accept that credit card company offer any day, every day and a million times on Sundays or any day that ends with "day".

Can you not see the stupidity of your example?


Let's look at what you really want to push:

Would you consider it intelligent to give me One million dollars today and expect me to pay you back exactly one year in the future One million dollars?

This would be something that most people would not do for their best friend or someone in their families, yet you want an NFL team, a business, to do that for another team?

Notice that I am not using politics in this situation. I am not talking a team giving up a 2022 pick for the same pick in 2023 while having a gentlemen's agreement where the second team's owner agrees to vote for something that the first team's owner wants to pass. Even there, the value would be very high for the 1st team's owner to receive that vote and it would not be a pick for pick trade anyhow.

Using real world examples makes it easy to understand why something today needs to be compensated with something greater tomorrow, like a 2023 1st round pick for a 2022 2nd round pick.

 

[Montucky]

Would your credit card company give me One million dollars today and expect me to pay them back, exactly one year later One hundred thousand dollars?

Yes.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Also, what makes it more likely is that teams who maybe plan to address edge rusher in the draft might find themselves failing to do so. Or they'll suffer an off-season or early training camp injury. If somebody was going to wow the Bears into trading Robert Quinn it probably would have already happened by now.

But who knows exactly, it just seems to be a safer bet that you'll get more for him if you sit on him a few more months than just sell him to the highest bidder now.

I am going to use your example below:

If the difference is between selling Robert Quinn now for a late-second and a fifth and selling him in July for a second (that could be anywhere in that round) and a third then I'm taking the latter.

1. There is a "credit card fee" for draft pick compensation for 2023 picks, whether you want to believe it or not. You can't get something worth 1000 today and pay 1000 a year from now. You have to pay a credit card fee. In the NFL, that "credit card fee" is worth a pick one round earlier in 2023 than you got in 2022.
   1. So getting a late second round pick today is worth a 2023 first round pick and a fifth round pick in 2022 is worth a 4th round pick in 2023.
   2. Do you think that someone is going to give the Bears, after the draft, a 2023 first and 4th round picks for Quinn?
   3. You just undersold Quinn for a 2023 2nd round pick and a 2023 3rd round pick, because that is worse than the value of the 2022 2nd and 5th round picks. See #2 above (if you can see the black text).
   4. You have to consider that, before or during the 2022 draft, GMs have their precious commodities, their 2022 draft picks, and some less important 2023 draft picks. They will be willing to give up 2023 draft picks much more than they would be willing to give up their 2022 draft picks ("charge it"). Once the 2022 draft is over, the 2023 draft picks suddenly become much more important to them because those just became the current draft picks available (not those old 2022 draft picks).
2. Teams are not going to trade for Quinn right before the season. They just got their shiny new toys and would only be willing to get him for an extreme deal, which is not in the Bears favor. What they might do is trade for him at the trade deadline if they are playoff contenders and suffered a DE injury or DE is their one weakness. Let's look at that.
   1. Right now, Quinn is at the peak of his value. He just came off a season where he set the Bears single season record. Teams know this because it is right in front of them.
      1. what happens if Quinn does his usual roller coaster ride of one great year followed by one weak year? His value is going to plummet and he is going to be worth much less than he is worth now.
      2. At best, Quinn is like Quinn of 2021 (unlikely) and the Bears get that 2nd and 3rd rounders that you talked about.
         1. Let's consider that. You were talking about a late 2022 2nd and 5th rounders. Do you think that a Houston Texans team with an 0-5 record is going to trade for Quinn? No, chances are that a 5-0 or a 6-0 team with an injury is going to trade for him.
         2. Now it is not a given that a 5-0 team is going to end up with a better record than an 0-5 team, but chances are much better that it will be the 5-0 team who will make the playoffs, thus a lower 2023 2nd and 3rd round picks.
         3. Suddenly those late 2022 2nd and 5th round picks look much better.
   2. Finally, let's talk about 2022 versus 2023.
      1. Every draft is different. Two things that most drafts have is that there are only 3 to 5 true blue chips players (and some still fail) in most drafts and that there are usually less than 32 1st round worthy players. Some of those slots are filled with QBs because teams are always desperate for a QB (oh, please, oh, please, have lots of QBs take in the first and early second rounds this year) and some of the last 1st round picks had 2nd round value.
      2. The 2022 draft is completely different. There are no God-mode players in this draft, pushing really good prospects into top 5 drafts slots, where they honestly do not belong in most years. Another thing that is different is that 2022 is filled with more than 32 1st round worthy players and enough 2nd round worthy players to fill the first three rounds.
      3. 2022 is a great year to have more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. There are steals (if a 2nd rounder could be called a steal) to be had in those rounds.
      4. If the Bears get 2022 compensation for Quinn (I am not even saying that he should be traded), it would be much more valuable to have 2022 2nd round picks that it would be to have 2023 2nd round picks because 2022 is loaded with very good talent, especially since you don't even believe that he should be bringing in a 2023 1st round pick.
      5. 2022 is filled with lots of talent because of the weird things that happened over the past few years with Covid. It is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get better players with lower picks.
      6. There are no guarantees with the 2023 draft, but odds are going to be that it will look more like a normal draft with 3-5 true blue chip players, less than 32 1st round worthy players and less than 100 1st or 2nd round worthy players.
      7. One thing that you have not even considered is the experience factor.
         1. Let's go with the belief that Fields takes a big step forward (We have to because, if he never succeeds, nothing much else matters).
         2. Because the Bears have that 2022 late second round pick in the hypothetical Quinn trade, the Bears draft a player in 2022 and he gets one year of experience.
         3. Who do you think that would be more valuable in 2023, a player drafted in a strong draft who had a year to acclimate himself to the NFL or a rookie in a probably weaker 2023 draft?

If Quinn were to be traded, the Bears getting 2022 draft picks would be much more valuable than what you proposed (2023 2nd and 3rd round picks).