2014 Bears Compensatory Selection

[bear4life21]

I understand that there is a very complicated formula that the NFL follows to award x teams comp picks for each draft.

The theory I have depicted below is simplified.

With the offseason the Bears have had up to this point(FA). IMHO The Bears stand to gain a 6th or 7th round compensatory selection in the 2014 draft.

Correct me if I am wrong the Players that the Bears released/cut that ended up signing elsewhere(K.Davis and Spaeth) do not count towards the formula Hierarchy. and please be advised that the re-signing of our own players do not count towards this formula.

I pulled the majority of this data from espn.go.com

Bears UFA coming from different teams:
LT J. Bushrod (Saints)
TE M. Bennett (Giants)
LG M. Slauson (Jets)
DE/DT T. McBride (Saints)
TE S. Maneri (Chiefs)

Please be advised players that were cut by there former teams that ended up signing with the Bears do not count towards the formula.

LB DJ Williams (Broncos)
LB J. Anderson (Panthers)
S T. Zibikowski (Colts)

Our UFA's that ended up signing elsewhere:

LB N. Roach (Raiders)
G/C C. Spencer (Titans)
RG L. Louis (Dolphins)
LB G Hayes (Jags)
CB DJ Moore (Panthers)
QB J. Campbell (Browns)

Players that we cut that have signed else where:

K. Davis (Browns)
M. Spaeth (Steelers)

I count us gaining 5, but, losing 6. We have lost more than we gained.

If the Bears end up standing ground and not bring in another Teams UFA; IMHO we could be looking at either a 6th or 7th round compensatory selection in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Im still hopeful the bears end up coming to terms with Izzy and Url's.

Url's needs to come down from being a Petulant child to sign with our faithful Bears.

What do you all think?

 

[Tjodalv]

It's unlikely we'll get any comp. picks next year. The formula is based upon salary of FA lost vs. FA signed, playing time of each group, "post-season honors," production, and a few other variables. It's pretty likely that the contracts/playing time/production of just Bennett and Bushrod will more than offset all the FAs we lost.

 

[JLMattick54]

thanks for killing that so fast Tjodalv. I was hoping for extra picks, and it sounded like Bear4life worked hard on that post

 

[Colonel_Buendia]

But I think part of the formula is straight-up players lost/gained, so if the Bears lose 6 FAs and sign 5 FAs, they would be in line for gaining a compensatory pick of some kind, with the round of the pick being determined by the variables you mentioned. I could be wrong, because I can't find the actual formula anywhere.

Part of the formula is the players lost/gained ratio, but losing 6 and signing 5 means nothing if we lost 1 16-game starter and signed 3, which is what happened. Quality and salary > quantity in terms of how it impacts the formula, based on what I've read from all the NFL writers.
Also, the formula isn't available to the public, the press, or anyone outside the NFL office, which is why you can't find it.

 

[X]

Sounds a lot like QBR....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterback_rating#NFL

however, if you're talking about the totalqbr stuff...it lies safely implanted in the horn of one of Dilfer's pet unicorns at his ranch among the clouds.

 

[nwfisch]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterback_rating#NFL

however, if you're talking about the totalqbr stuff...it lies safely implanted in the horn of one of Dilfer's pet unicorns at his ranch among the clouds.

 

[FirstTimer]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterback_rating#NFL

however, if you're talking about the totalqbr stuff...it lies safely implanted in the horn of one of Dilfer's pet unicorns at his ranch among the clouds.

Passer rating =/= QBR

 

[bear4life21]

I suppose we stand our best chance to get a comp pick if Roach and Moore play lights out and garner pro bowl seasons and Weeden falling out of his walker causing Campbell to start for the Browns for the remainder of the season...

 

[Tjodalv]

thanks for killing that so fast Tjodalv. I was hoping for extra picks, and it sounded like Bear4life worked hard on that post

Sorry man.

And no Rory it's not straight up #of players lost vs. # gained. From NFL.com:

Under the rules for compensatory draft selections, a team losing more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires in the previous year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks.

The number of picks a team receives equals the net loss of compensatory free agents up to a maximum of four.

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a team is covered by this formula.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap1000000151670/article/nfl-awards-32-compensatory-draft-picks-to-16-teams

 

[Raskolnikov]

No!!!!! no picks for us!!! We were one of the major players. People always say the formula is complicated.....so how in the hell is 6-5 complicated? If it were that easy then yes, we would get one pick.

Bushrod far outweighs any contract we lost. Bennett actually does too I think. Angelo was terrible at setting us up for compensatory and I think Emery hasn't had a chance to recover yet. You have to time needs and contracts very well, it appears to me all these one year contracts fit into some sort of plan like that.

You have to have buy years, and stand pat years if you want to make this work. Once you start getting 10 picks a year, the system is easier to maintain and exploit. Its a terrible system, but its inexcusable we haven't been run more intelligently to take advantage like the Patriots and Ravens have, and now the niners are in on it too.