2021 Cubs trade deadline thread

[zack54attack]

Discuss Cubs-related trade stuff in here:

 

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1413257968943083528

 

[jts1207]

Sell everything

 

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1413260559257116672

 

[bears5150]

Fire sale everything must go

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Let's go, Jed. Rip off the band aid

 

[CSF77]

Gordon Wittenmyer

@GDubCub
·
3h

Hoyer on whether to call #Cubs' next phase a rebuild (1/2): "We're in a different situation now than we were in 2012. The decisions we're making, the processes we're going through are completely different. That label is certainly something to be avoided. ...











Gordon Wittenmyer

@GDubCub
·
3h

Hoyer on #Cubs next phase as "rebuild" (2/2): "We are going to have roster turnover. That was inevitable. ... This is certainly not a rebuild by any kind of definition that we'd be using from our past."

 

[CSF77]

Swear I call it like it is. This team is not in the same situation at 2012. It was so obvious that anyone could have seen it.

But no. burn it. Trash it all. Etc etc.

The Cubs generate 500M per year. They can support a 200M team. The only reason why payroll went down was COVID killing the revenues. That is why Darvish was traded. It was not to bring back 2012 baby. It was to make the team fiscally responsible.

I would call it conservative values. Other teams figured short term loss means long term gain and plowed ahead. Those team are getting pay off for their aggressive behavior.

So in view of this lets call a spade a spade.

They will sell short term players.
They will reload.
They will contend in 2022.

End of story.

 

[Chicagosports89]

Swear I call it like it is. This team is not in the same situation at 2012. It was so obvious that anyone could have seen it.

But no. burn it. Trash it all. Etc etc.

The Cubs generate 500M per year. They can support a 200M team. The only reason why payroll went down was COVID killing the revenues. That is why Darvish was traded. It was not to bring back 2012 baby. It was to make the team fiscally responsible.

I would call it conservative values. Other teams figured short term loss means long term gain and plowed ahead. Those team are getting pay off for their aggressive behavior.

So in view of this lets call a spade a spade.

They will sell short term players.
They will reload.
They will contend in 2022.

End of story.

Realistically they won't contend in 2022

 

[CSF77]

Realistically they won't contend in 2022

Why not?

Cubs tax:
2021: 173,065,000 (#11)
2020: 216,269,251 (#3)
2019 237,199,519 (#2)
2018 193,316,649 ((#5)
2017 183,310,943 (#9)
2016 205,917,980 (#4)
2015 154,907,624 (10)

So if we have learned anything about the Ricketts is they will spend because they are cash cows.

2022 58,125,000 in tax hits.

Amazing how that works.

So Jed has money to burn. Like 142Mil to be exact. And from what we have seen from above 200M is by no means the spending limit. No it is a bit higher.

But to just be fair with this lets say 140M will be spent towards a reload and that includes retention. 120M is a fair statement here.

Now they will need a SS.
A 3B
a 1B
2 SP

Some will come internal. Some will come external.

Now lets play with the Lynn and Rondon idea for argument sake.

Lynn made 10M and is putting up cy-young levels at 35. He may want a bit of security from 36- so I could see him wanting a 3 year deal. He is a bit of a work horse so he will most likely at worse be a innings soaker. At best a TOR.

Rondon is a bit of a risk going in and I would have innings clauses going in. bonus and guarantee opt years. Give him a opt out after 2 because if he stays the coarse he could get a better offer.


Long story short they will cost 15M each. 30 Mil invested. Might have some perks that pop it up to 40M.

80M to play with. Hmmm need a SS. Seager looks pretty sexy right now there. 25M spent.

55M to invest.

1B well a few ways to go about this.

#1 internal. Let Wisdom take over. 43% SO rate and a late bloomer? Pass.

Outside of the box? Sign Conforto to play LF and move Joc to 1B. Platoon with Wisdom. Maybe.

Safe pick: Resign Rizzo. 22M AAV

23M left to spend. Need a 3B.

Internal Wisdom see above.
Cheap: Duffy. Not a bad option at all. 5-6M
Kyle Seager just for the Seager brothers on the left side fun. 14M

If it gets Seager it would be worth it IMO and invest the rest into the pen. Start Lynn, Hendricks, Rondon, Mills and Alzolay. Last guy really needs to figure out that 2nd pitch vs lefties before I get feel goods on him. But they have 3 guys that can start MLB ready.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Why not?

Cubs tax:
2021: 173,065,000 (#11)
2020: 216,269,251 (#3)
2019 237,199,519 (#2)
2018 193,316,649 ((#5)
2017 183,310,943 (#9)
2016 205,917,980 (#4)
2015 154,907,624 (10)

So if we have learned anything about the Ricketts is they will spend because they are cash cows.

2022 58,125,000 in tax hits.

Amazing how that works.

So Jed has money to burn. Like 142Mil to be exact. And from what we have seen from above 200M is by no means the spending limit. No it is a bit higher.

But to just be fair with this lets say 140M will be spent towards a reload and that includes retention. 120M is a fair statement here.

Now they will need a SS.
A 3B
a 1B
2 SP

Some will come internal. Some will come external.

Now lets play with the Lynn and Rondon idea for argument sake.

Lynn made 10M and is putting up cy-young levels at 35. He may want a bit of security from 36- so I could see him wanting a 3 year deal. He is a bit of a work horse so he will most likely at worse be a innings soaker. At best a TOR.

Rondon is a bit of a risk going in and I would have innings clauses going in. bonus and guarantee opt years. Give him a opt out after 2 because if he stays the coarse he could get a better offer.


Long story short they will cost 15M each. 30 Mil invested. Might have some perks that pop it up to 40M.

80M to play with. Hmmm need a SS. Seager looks pretty sexy right now there. 25M spent.

55M to invest.

1B well a few ways to go about this.

#1 internal. Let Wisdom take over. 43% SO rate and a late bloomer? Pass.

Outside of the box? Sign Conforto to play LF and move Joc to 1B. Platoon with Wisdom. Maybe.

Safe pick: Resign Rizzo. 22M AAV

23M left to spend. Need a 3B.

Internal Wisdom see above.
Cheap: Duffy. Not a bad option at all. 5-6M
Kyle Seager just for the Seager brothers on the left side fun. 14M

If it gets Seager it would be worth it IMO and invest the rest into the pen. Start Lynn, Hendricks, Rondon, Mills and Alzolay. Last guy really needs to figure out that 2nd pitch vs lefties before I get feel goods on him. But they have 3 guys that can start MLB ready.

You do realize that none of this will ever happen and they likely will have some metrics telling them who to sign that can be held, if they are good, and flipped if they are bad.

I could see them signing one or two big free agents because they have the money. But the rest will likely be guys we aren't even thinking of right now.

 

[CSF77]

You do realize that none of this will ever happen and they likely will have some metrics telling them who to sign that can be held, if they are good, and flipped if they are bad.

I could see them signing one or two big free agents because they have the money. But the rest will likely be guys we aren't even thinking of right now.

If you read what Jed said.

This is not 2012. Which means we are not signing guys to flip.

So I get what peeps want. But sorry have to hit it with the nope stick.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I could see them making a splash on Carlos Correa, and signing guys like Nomar Mazara and Daniel Norris. Mazara and Norris would come super cheap, and it would allow the Cubs to work on extensions for guys like Contreras. The one guy I see the Cubs resigning is Baez. As much as I hate his swing and miss he has seemed to take on more patience of late, and his glove is still very valuable.

At the trade deadline we can get either fillers for the next two years (for Bryant, Rizzo, Kimbrel) that can play at the MLB level or very low level prospects that can develop into top 100's.

When Hoyer says this isn't like 2012, it is because the infrastructure here is much better, and we have prospects near ready to come up. We tend to turn average pitchers into better pitchers and get better use out of contact type hitters.

Outfield: Happ, Heyward, Mazara, Pederson, Marisnick, Correa
Infield: Correa, Baez, Hoerner, Bote, Wisdom, Free agent fillers that can make contact.

SP: Hendricks, Davies, Alzolay, Norris, Mills, minor league competition that can make guys miss bats.

I see the Cubs making more of these types of moves. Moves that give them flexibility to make deadline sells or buys. So it won't be an actual rebuild as this team will still be around average in an average division, but it will have the flexibility to take on salary at the deadline if needed.

 

[Chicagosports89]

If you read what Jed said.

This is not 2012. Which means we are not signing guys to flip.

So I get what peeps want. But sorry have to hit it with the nope stick.

Yeah I think this is not 2012 means it won't take 4 years and the team won't be an absolute dumpster fire, but next year in all likelihood will still be a transition year. Bringing in solid players that are short term fillers that can be flipped (Verlander, Lynn, Greinke, Scherzer, Kluber) and maybe one or two long term pieces but I expect more long term money to be spent in 23 and 24 to fill in holes as the next wave of kids is filtering up.

 

[Probie2429]

I wouldn’t let Hoyer spend any money just look at the track record he and Theo had during the contending years. Not very pretty.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I wouldn’t let Hoyer spend any money just look at the track record he and Theo had during the contending years. Not very pretty.

The bad:
Heyward was really the only obvious bad contract, which was literally the same signing as Carl Crawford in Boston. Chatwood could be in the bad category as well, but not very costly. Brandon Morrow was a big whiff but also more bad luck than a bad signing.
The good:
Lester, Darvish, Zobrist, Fowler, Cishek, Kimbrel, Lackey, Hammel

 

[CSF77]

Yeah I think this is not 2012 means it won't take 4 years and the team won't be an absolute dumpster fire, but next year in all likelihood will still be a transition year. Bringing in solid players that are short term fillers that can be flipped (Verlander, Lynn, Greinke, Scherzer, Kluber) and maybe one or two long term pieces but I expect more long term money to be spent in 23 and 24 to fill in holes as the next wave of kids is filtering up.

 

[CSF77]

I would take it at face value.

How about this:

Cubs trade Bryant and Kimbrel to the Sox for Vaughn and 2 pitchers, Eloy is starting a rehab assignment right now. I would expect a bit of DH for him. Bryant replaces Vaughn in LF.

Cubs also pick up Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist. Both are A ball or lower RHP.

Vaughn fixes the 1B problem going forward, Pitching is always needed.

With 1B filled Jed shops Rizzo. Red Sox seem like a potential spot for him. Red sox are RH dominate. Rizzo would be a upgrade for a contender.

Chris Murphy. LHP as a return.

Baez would be a hard sale. He is a bit of a reach and 2nd fiddle to Trevor Story. The losers in that battle might knock on Jed's door then.

That is what I would expect out of the deadline. The draft will come first and is far more interesting on what direction they go.

 

[Chicagosports89]

View attachment 12506

That quote fits what I said. More of a retool than rebuild. Still could have some down time though

 

[Chicagosports89]

I would take it at face value.

How about this:

Cubs trade Bryant and Kimbrel to the Sox for Vaughn and 2 pitchers, Eloy is starting a rehab assignment right now. I would expect a bit of DH for him. Bryant replaces Vaughn in LF.

Cubs also pick up Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist. Both are A ball or lower RHP.

Vaughn fixes the 1B problem going forward, Pitching is always needed.

With 1B filled Jed shops Rizzo. Red Sox seem like a potential spot for him. Red sox are RH dominate. Rizzo would be a upgrade for a contender.

Chris Murphy. LHP as a return.

Baez would be a hard sale. He is a bit of a reach and 2nd fiddle to Trevor Story. The losers in that battle might knock on Jed's door then.

That is what I would expect out of the deadline. The draft will come first and is far more interesting on what direction they go.

I think Davies will be gone for whatever they can get to someone who needs rotation depth, maybe even SD. Chafin will undoubtedly pique interest. Maybe Tepera or Winkler. Someone would have to blow them away for Hendricks, like a quintana level offer. Contreras I would imagine would be looking at an even bigger offer to get him. I don't think anyone is off the table though. Hoerner would be the closest to untouchable.