Something you need to consider when talking about pitching and cubs pitching in general is that the cubs are very likely to be an elite defensive group. If Nico wins the 2B job kris bryant whos roughly an average 3B is the worst defender on the infield. The other 4 guys including Contreras are at least contenders for gold gloves. Heyward probably isn't what he once was but he's still above average. Joc should be pretty good in LF. I'm not really sold on Happ's defense personally but if he's the worst guy out there you're going to have a pretty good defense. Also don't sleep on Burl Callaway making his way to the majors soon.
Overall I think people will be surprised with the cubs pitching. I think when you factor in their team defense it will be a team who's greater than the sum of its parts especially if they replicate Contreras' framing improvement in 2020.
Yes and no. Like generally speaking yes BABIP will be .300 for league average year to year but there are pitchers who consistently out perform that by getting weaker contact. Over 123 games started Davies career babip against is .287 so he already shows he is that type of pitcher.BABIP on avg will be .300. A good D will lessen it. A bad D will increase it.
Atl lost many world series. They won 1. They were built to get there. Smoltz started to peak in 1995 and was a big factor on why they pushed through that year.Yes and no. Like generally speaking yes BABIP will be .300 for league average year to year but there are pitchers who consistently out perform that by getting weaker contact. Over 123 games started Davies career babip against is .287 so he already shows he is that type of pitcher.
As for not building a sexy rotation... i think people forget what baseball can and used to be. Tom Glavine is an all time great and his k/9 was 5.32 with a 3.06 bb/9 and a 0.73 hr/9. Davies is presently at 6.54, 2.62 and 1.04 respectively. Now I'm not saying Davies will be Tom Glavine here. He had 20.2 fWAR prior to his age 27 season where as Davies has put up 9.
The point I'm trying to make is that you aren't going to get an edge following trends. So, chasing high k rate pitchers as is popular right now is just going to wind up with you either over paying guys or getting middling guys who aren't the best at what they do. That's why I appreciate them caring less about velocity than other teams. I mean look Glavine was still a useful pitcher at 39. Jamie Moyer was still useful at 45. So, you find the right control guys and you have a long term corner stone.
I feel like you're talking about something entirely different here. I'm talking about being an effective pitcher not contending for a world series. But setting that aside, Glavine isn't why the Braves didn't win more world series. He had a career 3.42 ERA in the playoffs. Maddux was at 3.27. Randy Johnson who was clearly viewed as your prototypical big game pitcher was a career 3.50 ERA in the playoffs. Andy Pettitte who was widely viewed as a good post season pitcher was 3.81. Braves didn't win more world series A) because they had shit bullpens and B) because they kept running into the yankees who were the best team of the generation.Atl lost many world series. They won 1. They were built to get there. Smoltz started to peak in 1995 and was a big factor on why they pushed through that year.