A trade scenario out of the #1 pick

[J2hotnspicyy]

Really started to crystallize these trade scenarios in my head, after reading Dane Brugler’s 2.0 mock. I think the Texans will be stubborn and obtuse to even picking the ‘right’ guy, I don’t see them as our trade partner. Dane’s mock has us trading back with the Colts. But ALSO, I saw his mock separately had Panthers trading up to #5, by trading their ‘24 first and this year’s #9 for Seattle’s #5….

Which A. I wondered, is this an even better package than the Colts one? And B. Why wouldn’t the Bears with the higher pick not want that package?

I think Will Anderson will go at #3 to the Cardinals. My big question is… do I think the Bears are in love with Jalen Carter enough to stand firm at #4 for him? He has some character concerns, engine/stamina concerns. Looking at how many trades Poles flipped last year, he is a proactive guy - I think they could jump in front of a Seattle/Panthers trade and accept the same offer for #4. It’s lofty and idealistic for sure, but realistic enough to be featured in the Athletic’s main draft guy’s mock. Boiling down the overall moves….

—

Bears trade back from #1, receive Colts #4, #35, and ‘24 1st. Then - Trade back from #4, receive Panthers #9, 3rd round pick, ‘24 1st

Sum total of the haul for the #1: #9 pick, #35, #94, ‘24 first-round pick (Colts), ‘24 first-round pick (Panthers)

—-

This gives Bears 3 first-round picks next year, if you include their own. Giving them quite a swing at a Marvin Harrison Jr. type, or whoever in a draft deemed stronger than this one. I for one don’t see Colts or Panthers taking off record-wise, so those could easily become top-10 picks and Bears maybe becomes a 12-15 pick but who knows

This fits Poles approach of high character guys, valuing quantity of picks over just a blue chipper at #1. He gets to really build a roster AND have some lottery type value next year. And fans would be thrilled, if a tad bit frustrated to roll the value back a year.

BUT in free agency they can build a strong roster, probably draft an OT at #9, and have two second rounders to flesh things out for this year. And it gives us the green light to play to win, instead of worrying about tanking, with two other teams firsts in our back pocket

Thoughts?

 

[Bearly]

Possible but I'd like more picks this year. You can't approach a draft trade assuming the other team's future draft position within a given round. maybe hedge a guess as bottom 1/2 or top 1/2 but that's about it.

The only thing more speculative than mock drafts is mock trades within them.

 

[dennehy]

That would be great, but unlikely.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

The only thing more speculative than mock drafts is mock trades within them.

I just knew that my mock career progression predictions (all 1st, 2nd and 3rd round Bear picks in 2023 and 2024 are going to be future Hall of Fame players, entering as Bears) would certainly be less speculative than other people's mock drafts and mock trades!

Thus, I want the Bears to trade back a lot and stock up on 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in both 2023 and 2024.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Would that be ideal? Yes.

Is it likely? No. Indy we know wants to move up in the draft, and their GM will probably be desperate--and if they're dumb enough to retain Jeff Saturday as is being rumbled--Indy is the team who's 1st in 2024 I want.

But who is there at 5 in this situation that Carolina says "yes, I HAVE to have HIM"? Bryce Young and CJ Stroud likely are off the board, Anderson by OPs guestimation of what Arizona will do. Frank Reich just got hired and probably has some time, especially if they're going to have to retool a year with very limited cap going into March. They'll have to shed a couple of mil to get back in the black before restructuring a few guys/cutting a couple/dole out void years (No, they aren't trading DJ Moore) to be able to get something of an offseason in. 2024 offseason Carolina is lining up to have the super high pick and absurd amounts of cap (120 mil per spotrac).

What's Carolina's angle for this year that flips the script from 7-10? I get its easy to solely focus on the bears and the ideal maximized return--but if anything, Carolina these coming months probably sign some mid/low tier young guys to retool with their cap issues then go BPA in the draft before lining up Reich with his QB/money to spend next year. Nothing this year says Carolina is ready for the splash turnaround year.

Also, the bears haven't met with Jalen Carter or worked him out. I'm not sure how right now they can be in love with him.

 

[IBleedBearsBlood]

At some point you have to build now. Even if it’s not all the positions. Which you can’t. It’s impossible. Get what you can with trading back once and start picking.

 

[J2hotnspicyy]

Would that be ideal? Yes.

Is it likely? No. Indy we know wants to move up in the draft, and their GM will probably be desperate--and if they're dumb enough to retain Jeff Saturday as is being rumbled--Indy is the team who's 1st in 2024 I want.

But who is there at 5 in this situation that Carolina says "yes, I HAVE to have HIM"? Bryce Young and CJ Stroud likely are off the board, Anderson by OPs guestimation of what Arizona will do. Frank Reich just got hired and probably has some time, especially if they're going to have to retool a year with very limited cap going into March. They'll have to shed a couple of mil to get back in the black before restructuring a few guys/cutting a couple/dole out void years (No, they aren't trading DJ Moore) to be able to get something of an offseason in. 2024 offseason Carolina is lining up to have the super high pick and absurd amounts of cap (120 mil per spotrac).

What's Carolina's angle for this year that flips the script from 7-10? I get its easy to solely focus on the bears and the ideal maximized return--but if anything, Carolina these coming months probably sign some mid/low tier young guys to retool with their cap issues then go BPA in the draft before lining up Reich with his QB/money to spend next year. Nothing this year says Carolina is ready for the splash turnaround year.

Also, the bears haven't met with Jalen Carter or worked him out. I'm not sure how right now they can be in love with him.

I think the idea in Brugler’s mock is the Texans fall for Will Levis, who’s stock seems the most in fluctuation. After Cardinals go Will Anderson, it leaves Levis/Stroud at #4 and the Panthers would leap at that guy in theory - if you think there is a drop off after those three. But I think your points are valid if Carolina has any kind of sensible front office

Although doesn’t mean another team won’t be dangling their ‘24 1st to take the last QB of this year’s trio. Teams have been as dumb before

 

[HeHateMe]

 

[pdxbearsfan]

Really started to crystallize these trade scenarios in my head, after reading Dane Brugler’s 2.0 mock. I think the Texans will be stubborn and obtuse to even picking the ‘right’ guy, I don’t see them as our trade partner. Dane’s mock has us trading back with the Colts. But ALSO, I saw his mock separately had Panthers trading up to #5, by trading their ‘24 first and this year’s #9 for Seattle’s #5….

Which A. I wondered, is this an even better package than the Colts one? And B. Why wouldn’t the Bears with the higher pick not want that package?

I think Will Anderson will go at #3 to the Cardinals. My big question is… do I think the Bears are in love with Jalen Carter enough to stand firm at #4 for him? He has some character concerns, engine/stamina concerns. Looking at how many trades Poles flipped last year, he is a proactive guy - I think they could jump in front of a Seattle/Panthers trade and accept the same offer for #4. It’s lofty and idealistic for sure, but realistic enough to be featured in the Athletic’s main draft guy’s mock. Boiling down the overall moves….

—

Bears trade back from #1, receive Colts #4, #35, and ‘24 1st. Then - Trade back from #4, receive Panthers #9, 3rd round pick, ‘24 1st

Sum total of the haul for the #1: #9 pick, #35, #94, ‘24 first-round pick (Colts), ‘24 first-round pick (Panthers)

—-

This gives Bears 3 first-round picks next year, if you include their own. Giving them quite a swing at a Marvin Harrison Jr. type, or whoever in a draft deemed stronger than this one. I for one don’t see Colts or Panthers taking off record-wise, so those could easily become top-10 picks and Bears maybe becomes a 12-15 pick but who knows

This fits Poles approach of high character guys, valuing quantity of picks over just a blue chipper at #1. He gets to really build a roster AND have some lottery type value next year. And fans would be thrilled, if a tad bit frustrated to roll the value back a year.

BUT in free agency they can build a strong roster, probably draft an OT at #9, and have two second rounders to flesh things out for this year. And it gives us the green light to play to win, instead of worrying about tanking, with two other teams firsts in our back pocket

Thoughts?

I think the 2 trade downs you mention would be great with Indy then Panthers. I read scenario saying they do a 3 way trade with Cards & Panthers not sure what that looks like in comparison.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

I just knew that my mock career progression predictions (all 1st, 2nd and 3rd round Bear picks in 2023 and 2024 are going to be future Hall of Fame players, entering as Bears) would certainly be less speculative than other people's mock drafts and mock trades!

Thus, I want the Bears to trade back a lot and stock up on 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in both 2023 and 2024.

The Bears do have more HOF'ers than anyone.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Really started to crystallize these trade scenarios in my head, after reading Dane Brugler’s 2.0 mock. I think the Texans will be stubborn and obtuse to even picking the ‘right’ guy, I don’t see them as our trade partner. Dane’s mock has us trading back with the Colts. But ALSO, I saw his mock separately had Panthers trading up to #5, by trading their ‘24 first and this year’s #9 for Seattle’s #5….

Which A. I wondered, is this an even better package than the Colts one? And B. Why wouldn’t the Bears with the higher pick not want that package?

I think Will Anderson will go at #3 to the Cardinals. My big question is… do I think the Bears are in love with Jalen Carter enough to stand firm at #4 for him? He has some character concerns, engine/stamina concerns. Looking at how many trades Poles flipped last year, he is a proactive guy - I think they could jump in front of a Seattle/Panthers trade and accept the same offer for #4. It’s lofty and idealistic for sure, but realistic enough to be featured in the Athletic’s main draft guy’s mock. Boiling down the overall moves….

—

Bears trade back from #1, receive Colts #4, #35, and ‘24 1st. Then - Trade back from #4, receive Panthers #9, 3rd round pick, ‘24 1st

Sum total of the haul for the #1: #9 pick, #35, #94, ‘24 first-round pick (Colts), ‘24 first-round pick (Panthers)

—-

This gives Bears 3 first-round picks next year, if you include their own. Giving them quite a swing at a Marvin Harrison Jr. type, or whoever in a draft deemed stronger than this one. I for one don’t see Colts or Panthers taking off record-wise, so those could easily become top-10 picks and Bears maybe becomes a 12-15 pick but who knows

This fits Poles approach of high character guys, valuing quantity of picks over just a blue chipper at #1. He gets to really build a roster AND have some lottery type value next year. And fans would be thrilled, if a tad bit frustrated to roll the value back a year.

BUT in free agency they can build a strong roster, probably draft an OT at #9, and have two second rounders to flesh things out for this year. And it gives us the green light to play to win, instead of worrying about tanking, with two other teams firsts in our back pocket

Thoughts?

Do you think you’re the first to suggest the double trade back? Ppl have been rock hard over it the bears got the #1 and have made it their entire personality.

Anyways, I agree with your plan in theory. Don’t think it works out like that in practice

 

[J2hotnspicyy]

Do you think you’re the first to suggest the double trade back? Ppl have been rock hard over it the bears got the #1 and have made it their entire personality.

Hahah. No. I just didn't know where to drop discussion about The Athletic's Brugler's latest mock, and why the Bears couldn't just do both his two trades, instead of only the initial.

That and a little bit curious if Bears fans would want Jalen Carter, or the #9 and '24 first from a Carolina/Washington type? It occurred to me I'd slightly prefer the latter.

 

[Bust]

Possible but I'd like more picks this year. You can't approach a draft trade assuming the other team's future draft position within a given round. maybe hedge a guess as bottom 1/2 or top 1/2 but that's about it.

The only thing more speculative than mock drafts is mock trades within them.

what if you had a chance to land a hall of fame lock at #1 over 2 pro bowlers with the extra picks.

you would pick hall of famer, no?

 

[remydat]

This should the goal IMO. Trade within the top 4 and then trade out of top 4 to somewhere in top 15.

 

[DB012031]

what if you had a chance to land a hall of fame lock at #1 over 2 pro bowlers with the extra picks.

you would pick hall of famer, no?

I think it depends on the position of said potential HOF player. Certain positions, even with a HOF type player, are considered "overrated" in today's game.

Take RB for instance; who's the last HOF caliber RB to really take a team to the Super Bowl? In the last 10 years, there really hasn't been a game changing HOF RB that a team rode to get there.

 

[HSBOB]

MSN

 

[Bearly]

what if you had a chance to land a hall of fame lock at #1 over 2 pro bowlers with the extra picks.

you would pick hall of famer, no?

What was the last HOF 'lock' going into the draft?
Here's this century.

• 
  2022: Travon Walker
• 2021: Trevor Lawrence
• 2020: Joe Burrow
• 2019: Kyler Murray
• 2018: Baker Mayfield
• 2017: Myles Garrett
• 2016: Jared Goff
• 2015: Jameis Winston
• 2014: Jadeveon Clowney
• 2013: Eric Fisher
• 2012: Andrew Luck
• 2011: Cam Newton
• 2010: Sam Bradford
• 2009: Matthew Stafford
• 2008: Jake Long
• 2007: JaMarcus Russell
• 2006: Mario Williams
• 2005: Alex Smith
• 2004: Eli Manning
• 2003: Carson Palmer
• 2002: David Carr
• 2001: Michael Vick
• 2000: Courtney Brown

Top candidate I see as a projected HOF lock going in is Andrew Luck and he probably doesn't get in. There's others that will get in but they weren't 'locks' to do so before the draft and some that may have been highly regarded turned out to be busts. Your question is a a bit of a
fairytale. Sure things get derailed by injury, circumstance or poor life choices all the time.

In the spirit of your question, Do you take to Pro Bowl type players at positions of need over a HOF player at one you may not? There are endless possible scenarios and questions available here. Personally, I'll have an opinion on whatever gets done but it will be difficult properly to judge Poles' decisions for a couple/few years. He could trade down and still get the closest things to future HOF players. Right now, that's the 2 DLmen. can he have his cake and eat it too? Maybe, maybe not and if he can't get value for the pick, I won't hate him taking one of them.

Thing is, he very likely can make that trade and to put another spin on it, if the player you suggest is there, why wouldn't other teams try to trade up for him? Teams don't just make moves for QBs but really, look back at drafts and consider how your proposition is a preposterous supposition. GMs have proven many times over that they are not Nostradamus.

 

[PrideisBears]

What was the last HOF 'lock' going into the draft?
Here's this century.

• 
  2022: Travon Walker
• 2021: Trevor Lawrence
• 2020: Joe Burrow
• 2019: Kyler Murray
• 2018: Baker Mayfield
• 2017: Myles Garrett
• 2016: Jared Goff
• 2015: Jameis Winston
• 2014: Jadeveon Clowney
• 2013: Eric Fisher
• 2012: Andrew Luck
• 2011: Cam Newton
• 2010: Sam Bradford
• 2009: Matthew Stafford
• 2008: Jake Long
• 2007: JaMarcus Russell
• 2006: Mario Williams
• 2005: Alex Smith
• 2004: Eli Manning
• 2003: Carson Palmer
• 2002: David Carr
• 2001: Michael Vick
• 2000: Courtney Brown

Top candidate I see as a projected HOF candidate going in is Andrew Luck and he probably doesn't. There's others that will get in but they weren't 'locks' to do so before the draft and some that may have been highly regarded turned out to be busts. Your question is a a bit of a
fairytale. Sure things get derailed by injury, circumstance or poor life choices all the time.

In the spirit of your question, Do you take to Pro Bowl type players at positions of need over a HOF player at one you may not? There are endless possible scenarios and questions available here. Personally, I'll have an opinion on whatever gets done but it will be difficult properly to judge Poles' decisions for a couple/few years. He could trade down and still get the closest things to future HOF players. Right now, that's the 2 DLmen. can he have his cake and eat it too? Maybe, maybe not and if he can't get value for the pick, I won't hate him taking one of them.

Thing is, he likely can and either way if the player you suggest is there, Why TF wouldn't other teams try to trade up for him?

I almost disliked this, not because you are incorrect in any fashion but because you explained something to a bot

 

[Montucky]

If Houston offers you 1.2 and 1.12, which may actually happen, the situation works out basically perfectly. The Bears get Will Anderson Jr., and then get a chance to trade down from twelvth to the twenties and still pick up the 2024 first.

I love the idea of getting 2024 picks, but I am wary of another edge rushing prospect on Anderson Jr.'s level coming out these next few years. It is a difficult thing to balance.

 

[knoxville7]

Bruh, do you even mock off-season?!