Akiem Hicks Value Captured on Monday Night Football

Adipost

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By Cian Fahey

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What is the difference between 1.95 and 5.08? If you said 3.13 you're right but it's not the answer we're looking for. The answer we're looking for is Akiem Hicks.

Hicks was injured during Monday Night Football between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. He left the game with 2:47 left in the third quarter and never returned. Prior to Hicks' injury, the Vikings ran the ball 20 times for 39 yards (1.95 yards per carry). After Hicks' injury, they rushed 12 times for 61 yards (5.08 yards per carry).

That wasn't a coincidence.

Cook was entering the game on a tear. He had carried the ball 52 times for 369 yards and five touchdowns in the two preceding games. That's 7.1 yards per carry. The Bears run defence were facing the toughest challenge they could and they were dominating it right up until the point that Hicks left the field.

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Every running play is designed to work in a specific way. That design dictates the leverage that each blocker plays with. If the play is designed to go up the middle, the blockers need to be able to establish and maintain inside position to kick the defenders outside. The goal of the defensive line is to break that leverage and force the running back to go away from the design.

#96 Hicks is technically on the backside of this run. The Vikings want to send Cook up the middle behind his lead blocker. The double team on the inside takes away the nose tackle, while the fullback accounts for the middle linebacker. If Cook hits this hole at speed, he's one-on-one with Eddie Jackson.

Cook breaks that tackle 9/10 times.

The right tackle who Hicks lined up across from sets inside of him. He gets good position because he anticipates Hicks working laterally. Hicks is supposed to work past his left shoulder to give himself the best chance of stopping Cook. If he goes past his right shoulder, he risks being caught on the wrong side of the play.

But Hicks isn't your standard defender. He can go past the right tackle's right shoulder and close the play down from the backside. He beats the tackle with a speed rush almost instantly, then he has the straight-line speed to reach the running lane before Cook can. Cook is forced to run sideways to escape him.

As soon as he runs sideways, the defence has won. All of the blockers lose their leverage and the second-level defenders can swarm to gang tackle him at the line of scrimmage.

Hicks didn't touch the ball or the ball-carrier but he made this play.

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Individual defensive players have limited value because the offence controls where the ball goes and the best defences work by shutting down all options. If you took Hicks and dropped him into the Seattle Seahawks defence, he wouldn't have any real impact. We know that's true because the Seahawks have an outstanding defensive tackle who is already having no impact.

But when you drop a player of Hicks' quality into an otherwise talented stout defence, that one player can turn a strong defensive front into an overwhelming one. This stop is a great example of how that works.

The front-side penetration of #75 against the center forces Cook to cutback. When Cook sees #58 beating the right guard into the running lane, he's forced to hesitate and look for a second cutback. This is when he winds up in Hicks' area of the field.

Had Hicks been blocked by the right tackle, Cook could have cut to the outside and beat the cornerback for a big gain. We know he can do that because it's been a large part of his production so far this season. To tackle Cook you have to surround him in a tight space. A cornerback in space isn't bringing him down.

Since Hicks is so powerful, he can just push the right tackle down when he's trying to create leverage on his inside. That puts him on top of Cook in a tight space to tackle him for no gain.

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One of the big problems with stopping Hicks is that he's built like a bowling ball mated with a rhinoceros but has unrivalled quickness. Aaron Donald gets all the focus when it comes to celebrating defensive linemen but the difference between him and Hicks isn't as significant as the coverage would lead you to believe.

Being that he's quick enough to beat right tackles with his hands, it's no surprise that he's also far too quick for interior linemen. Rookie Ezra Cleveland leans forward off the snap and Hicks uses that against him to slide past his outside shoulder. He again has the speed to reach Cook before he can escape downfield.

Hicks' success manifests itself directly to the ball carrier and indirectly.

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Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathon are fast linebackers. They can shoot through gaps to trap running backs in the backfield when Hicks and the other defensive linemen occupy multiple blockers. Smith shoots past Hicks' outside shoulder here when the ball is handed off to the opposite side of the field.

It's a draw play and Smith never respects the threat of the pass so he's playing with an advantage. But he can only reach Cook because HIcks keeps him clean.

The right guard is setting inside because the ball carrier is supposed to run behind his back. Hicks attacks inside with his first step and shifts the guard further inside to open the lane past his outside shoulder. That movement traps the center in behind, which means there is nobody left to pick up Smith before he reaches Cook.

Hicks follows him through the line but doesn't need to make the tackle after already making the play.

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You could make a point to double-team him on every play but that leaves you trying to figure out how to contain Khalil Mack. Mack on a tight end on the edge will wind up with Mack tackling your running back at/behind the line of scrimmage.

Once Hicks went out, the defensive line suddenly started to move backwards a little bit and the front-line penetration disappeared. Cook was given initial space that he could build longer runs from. His first three carries after Hicks' injury gained 8, 13 and 6 yards. He had further carries of 7 and 14 yards before the Vikings were running clock at the end of the fourth quarter.

The Bears are still chasing a playoff spot despite their collapse since that 5-1 start. The severity of Hicks' hamstring injury will have a big impact on their outlook coming out of this week's bye.
 

Starion

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Another great post Adi. Beats most media articles out there hands down.
 

Nuremberg Bear

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Thanks, I love this ones.

But I think it's helping too that they realized Nichols isn't a NT. McCullens or what his name is, is helping a lot.
But as you mentioned, the hole group is just kicking together.
 

Mdbearz

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I know I'm beating a dead horse, but imagine what Hicks and Goldman can do together.

As you pointed out Hicks is essentially a 1 man wrecking ball, but Goldman was only slightly less effective in the run game, together you get the defense of 2018.....

I hope Hicks is ok, because not returning to the game is very concerning.
 

rawdawg

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Some debates on what the Bears should do with Hicks and Fuller this offseason. But I think this shows you have to bring Hicks back. He's still too good and too important to this defense to let go. 10.5Mil in cap relief if the Bears cut him. 12Mil in relief if they trade him. While the Bears need to completely revamp the offense and balance the amount of cash spent on that side of the ball vs. the defensive side, I don't think you can lose Hicks (or Fuller) just yet.

While 2021 cap is tight, you can get 15-20Mil by restructuring and extending Hicks and Fuller. Yes, that makes an unideal situation of pushing money to the future, but the 2022 and especially 2023 cap doesn't look nearly as bad. Can get out of Quinn's deal after 2021. Can get out of Mack, Whitehair, Goldman, and Jackson's deals if necessary after 2022.
 

ThatGuyRyan

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Some debates on what the Bears should do with Hicks and Fuller this offseason. But I think this shows you have to bring Hicks back. He's still too good and too important to this defense to let go. 10.5Mil in cap relief if the Bears cut him. 12Mil in relief if they trade him. While the Bears need to completely revamp the offense and balance the amount of cash spent on that side of the ball vs. the defensive side, I don't think you can lose Hicks (or Fuller) just yet.

While 2021 cap is tight, you can get 15-20Mil by restructuring and extending Hicks and Fuller. Yes, that makes an unideal situation of pushing money to the future, but the 2022 and especially 2023 cap doesn't look nearly as bad. Can get out of Quinn's deal after 2021. Can get out of Mack, Whitehair, Goldman, and Jackson's deals if necessary after 2022.

Hicks is 31 going on 32 in the last year of his contract I highly doubt the find a trade and restructure makes no sense. They could extend him for 1-2 years; I guess we have to see how he plays next season. Restructuring Fuller makes the most sense or extending him for 2-3 years. They can cut Massie and Graham and that frees up $15M (I think). Good news is the cap situation in 2022 is a lot better after these shit contracts are off the books.
 

hyatt151

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Won't matter what our cap situation is in 2022 if Pace is still the GM
 

LiverpoolBearsFAn

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You could see the difference as soon as he went off - immediately clear the middle was no longer completely sealed up, there was room to move for Cook. Amazing how much of an impact one guy can make he is basically irreplaceable.

Loved seeing him follow Patterson charging down the line waving him home on the return TD too.

Fucking love Hicks.
 

Tillman33

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He’s one of my favorite Bears ever, he plays with a lot of energy and he’s probably the best interior lineman since Harris
 

Briggs is GOAT

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Akiem is great but we already knew that, it would be nice to have some great players to talk about on the offensive side.
 

SlickWilly

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I know I'm beating a dead horse, but imagine what Hicks and Goldman can do together.

As you pointed out Hicks is essentially a 1 man wrecking ball, but Goldman was only slightly less effective in the run game, together you get the defense of 2018.....

I hope Hicks is ok, because not returning to the game is very concerning.

There have been several instances where a player tweaks his hamstring during a game, doesn't return and is back the next week. The good thing is we haven't heard about it being bad so my guess is Hicks will play against GB.
 

Bust

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Last season in a bear uniform
 

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