Article On Draft Success

[Rocksteady]

Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?

On Monday morning during a discussion which appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box", I addressed some of Richard Thaler's findings in his examination of whether NFL teams overvalue first-round draft picks while undervaluing later-round picks. Despite all the advanced metrics being developed to assess...

www.forbes.com

Some interesting facts when watching the draft. When looking at the percentages, Im sure they're is depth, but day 3 picks are so low and undrafted percentages are better than you would expect. I hate day 3.

 

[LIBlue]

This all really makes sense. Most teams will have 3 to 4 pics in rounds five through seven if you add compensatory selections. But with undrafted free agents, teams will sign anywhere from 15 to 20 players on average, meaning you have five undrafted free agents for every draft pick in rounds 5 thru 7.

 

[bufordht]

Weird. It's almost as if teams are picking the better players first.

 

[bufordht]

These numbers don't really tell you much. A lot of first round picks are going to start 2 or 3 years just based on draft status. Where a 6th Rd pick with similar production would've had a replacement drafted the next year. High picks are going to be given every opportunity to succeed.

The all pro numbers show that your big time players are going to come from the first round mostly. This percentage is actually a little deflated because the all pro kicker and punter obviously aren't high picks.

It would be interesting for someone to take a year of their life and go over every pick, every player, and plot out success rate of draft picks. It's nearly impossible to be very accurate tho because so much is subject to opinion as well as the players and coaches surrounding each player.

 

[Rocksteady]

These numbers don't really tell you much. A lot of first round picks are going to start 2 or 3 years just based on draft status. Where a 6th Rd pick with similar production would've had a replacement drafted the next year. High picks are going to be given every opportunity to succeed.

The all pro numbers show that your big time players are going to come from the first round mostly. This percentage is actually a little deflated because the all pro kicker and punter obviously aren't high picks.

It would be interesting for someone to take a year of their life and go over every pick, every player, and plot out success rate of draft picks. It's nearly impossible to be very accurate tho because so much is subject to opinion as well as the players and coaches surrounding each player.

There is also evidence in the article with a high game minimum.

 

[Aesopian]

This is why you draft best player available not position.