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Another possible choice at #9:
BIJAN ROBINSON
Bijan Robinson is a very good running back prospect and he deserves to be selected in the first round of the draft.
But the standard at running back in the NFL is higher than at any other position. And that means that Robinson has to rate on the same level as the likes of Saquon Barkley as not only well-rounded technical running backs, but also supreme athletes.
The Texas running back's athleticism is obvious.
This is Robinson's best run.
He takes the ball directed towards his center and then makes a sharp cut to his left to follow his blocking through the hole. It's a really well blocked run so Robinson is left one-on-one with the arriving safety.
That safety comes in fast but slows to set himself up to make a technically-sound tackle. Robinson shows off his speed with a decisive upfield cut past his inside shoulder. He drops his shoulder as he begins his cut to bait the defender forward.
Not only is this a very impressive physical action, it's completely functional and purposeful. He's not wasting any motion or doing anything overly elaborate. He's executing something simple really well.
Once he hits the open field, he has the speed and strength to extend the play all the way to the endzone.
This is the best version of Robinson. All the different traits that he exhibits here can be seen constantly in his play. But they rarely come together as well as they did here.
Instead, we regularly see Robinson's athleticism and ability to jump cut or break tackles. We don't necessarily see the decisive actions all the time though.
This jump cut is elite. It ranks up there alongside Adrian Peterson's, Todd Gurley's and Barkley's. He uses it to great effect here. The run is designed to go up the middle, but the defender not only meets Robinson in the hole but shoots through the hole to try and tackle him in the backfield.
A good jump cut sees the running back leave the ground with both feet but to go sideways instead of up into the air. This jump cut slides him to the edge in one movement so that he can turn a negative play into a positive.
But once he's on the edge. He should do more.
The first defender who tracks him outside gets a square shoulder to his body and drags him down. His sheer size and power allows him to push through that contact for eight yards, but one-on-one in space like that against a college safety, he shouldn't have been in that position.
An elite running back gets the sideline or makes a sharper cut to go clean past his inside shoulder.
This is a more impressive exhibit of his jump cut. You see it a lot in his tape. In truth, he's over-reliant on it and looks to cut back too often, but we'll get to that later.
On this play, he sees the second-level defender crash down inside to meet his lead blocker in the hole. Robinson's jump cut teleports him to the edge so he can attack the space that linebacker abandoned.
The defence reacts well and corrals Robinson well. But he makes a second cut infield and then a sharper cut upfield so that he beats three defenders and turns a play that should have been stopped at the line of scrimmage into another eight-yard gain.
Robinson's jump cut and ability to change direction sharply in tight spaces makes him a patient runner. He's happy to stop his feet and let blocking develop before he advances downfield.
This play is similar to the previous one but he's running off the edge and makes his decision based on the movement of the edge rusher. Running backs tend to go in the opposite direction when they're as physically talented as Robinson is. They rush to the hole and beat themselves.
It's a bit like a cornerback with a huge ego. He has to have that ego to trust his physical ability to get himself out of difficult situations.
This play is also the best example of Robinson's good footwork. He doesn't have elite footwork to pick his way between tackles, tight spaces or through bodies on the ground. And he's also not a one-cut runner who plants his foot and changes direction to attack space.
And since he fits neither of those descriptions effectively, he risks becoming a tweener who relies on his athleticism too much. That works in college, but NFL defences won't be overwhelmed by his athleticism.
His vision and decision-making are not necessarily bad by a standard measure, but they'd be a concern moving to the next level. Especially if he comes with the expectations of a top-10 or top-20 pick.
Take this play as an example. Robinson clearly misreads the leverage of the blockers and how the defence is developing against it.
If we use this image as a reference in conjunction with the previous gif, you'll get a clear example of how the blocking is telling Robinson to go right and follow his right guard upfield.
The offensive line was zone-blocking to the right side, it was an inside zone design. Robinson needed to read the blocking in front of him but he was too eager to cutback so he never even pressed or considered the front side of the play.
We see the same problem again here on a Second-and-6. Robinson should press the front side of the play and lower his shoulder to run inside of his right tackle. This time it's less egregious and there is good reason that he cuts back, but his lack of awareness of what's around him leads to him running into an unblocked defender.
This play wasn't going to break off into the secondary for a big gain, but if he presses the front of the play, then he gains 3-4 yards. Instead, by cutting back, he gains one, maybe two.
And while that's not a big different in the grand scheme of things, it does change the setup of the ensuing third down. Running backs are still very important for the efficiency of an offence even as the league becomes pass heavy. This kind of play matters a lot.
That's a real fear with Robinson. If he's always pressing for the cutback, he'll have a lot of negative play impacts.
And that's the double-edged sword of Robinson being an unusual athletic running back. That patience we talked about previously is helpful, but you also need your running back to be willing to hit top speed when the opportunity arises.
You very rarely see him stretch a play all the way to the sideline even when a route develops. On this occasion, he could beat the covering defender to the sideline and finish the play near the first down line, but he again prematurely cuts back so the defender gets a full shoulder tackle to his body.
There's no question that Robinson can be a very good NFL running back and a valuable contributor in the passing game as well as with the ball in his hands.
It's just a question of where he's worth taking.
For his career and for the team that drafts him, it's probably best that he lands at the end of the first round rather than at the top of the first round.
BIJAN ROBINSON
Bijan Robinson is a very good running back prospect and he deserves to be selected in the first round of the draft.
But the standard at running back in the NFL is higher than at any other position. And that means that Robinson has to rate on the same level as the likes of Saquon Barkley as not only well-rounded technical running backs, but also supreme athletes.
The Texas running back's athleticism is obvious.
This is Robinson's best run.
He takes the ball directed towards his center and then makes a sharp cut to his left to follow his blocking through the hole. It's a really well blocked run so Robinson is left one-on-one with the arriving safety.
That safety comes in fast but slows to set himself up to make a technically-sound tackle. Robinson shows off his speed with a decisive upfield cut past his inside shoulder. He drops his shoulder as he begins his cut to bait the defender forward.
Not only is this a very impressive physical action, it's completely functional and purposeful. He's not wasting any motion or doing anything overly elaborate. He's executing something simple really well.
Once he hits the open field, he has the speed and strength to extend the play all the way to the endzone.
This is the best version of Robinson. All the different traits that he exhibits here can be seen constantly in his play. But they rarely come together as well as they did here.
Instead, we regularly see Robinson's athleticism and ability to jump cut or break tackles. We don't necessarily see the decisive actions all the time though.
This jump cut is elite. It ranks up there alongside Adrian Peterson's, Todd Gurley's and Barkley's. He uses it to great effect here. The run is designed to go up the middle, but the defender not only meets Robinson in the hole but shoots through the hole to try and tackle him in the backfield.
A good jump cut sees the running back leave the ground with both feet but to go sideways instead of up into the air. This jump cut slides him to the edge in one movement so that he can turn a negative play into a positive.
But once he's on the edge. He should do more.
The first defender who tracks him outside gets a square shoulder to his body and drags him down. His sheer size and power allows him to push through that contact for eight yards, but one-on-one in space like that against a college safety, he shouldn't have been in that position.
An elite running back gets the sideline or makes a sharper cut to go clean past his inside shoulder.
This is a more impressive exhibit of his jump cut. You see it a lot in his tape. In truth, he's over-reliant on it and looks to cut back too often, but we'll get to that later.
On this play, he sees the second-level defender crash down inside to meet his lead blocker in the hole. Robinson's jump cut teleports him to the edge so he can attack the space that linebacker abandoned.
The defence reacts well and corrals Robinson well. But he makes a second cut infield and then a sharper cut upfield so that he beats three defenders and turns a play that should have been stopped at the line of scrimmage into another eight-yard gain.
Robinson's jump cut and ability to change direction sharply in tight spaces makes him a patient runner. He's happy to stop his feet and let blocking develop before he advances downfield.
This play is similar to the previous one but he's running off the edge and makes his decision based on the movement of the edge rusher. Running backs tend to go in the opposite direction when they're as physically talented as Robinson is. They rush to the hole and beat themselves.
It's a bit like a cornerback with a huge ego. He has to have that ego to trust his physical ability to get himself out of difficult situations.
This play is also the best example of Robinson's good footwork. He doesn't have elite footwork to pick his way between tackles, tight spaces or through bodies on the ground. And he's also not a one-cut runner who plants his foot and changes direction to attack space.
And since he fits neither of those descriptions effectively, he risks becoming a tweener who relies on his athleticism too much. That works in college, but NFL defences won't be overwhelmed by his athleticism.
His vision and decision-making are not necessarily bad by a standard measure, but they'd be a concern moving to the next level. Especially if he comes with the expectations of a top-10 or top-20 pick.
Take this play as an example. Robinson clearly misreads the leverage of the blockers and how the defence is developing against it.
If we use this image as a reference in conjunction with the previous gif, you'll get a clear example of how the blocking is telling Robinson to go right and follow his right guard upfield.
The offensive line was zone-blocking to the right side, it was an inside zone design. Robinson needed to read the blocking in front of him but he was too eager to cutback so he never even pressed or considered the front side of the play.
We see the same problem again here on a Second-and-6. Robinson should press the front side of the play and lower his shoulder to run inside of his right tackle. This time it's less egregious and there is good reason that he cuts back, but his lack of awareness of what's around him leads to him running into an unblocked defender.
This play wasn't going to break off into the secondary for a big gain, but if he presses the front of the play, then he gains 3-4 yards. Instead, by cutting back, he gains one, maybe two.
And while that's not a big different in the grand scheme of things, it does change the setup of the ensuing third down. Running backs are still very important for the efficiency of an offence even as the league becomes pass heavy. This kind of play matters a lot.
That's a real fear with Robinson. If he's always pressing for the cutback, he'll have a lot of negative play impacts.
And that's the double-edged sword of Robinson being an unusual athletic running back. That patience we talked about previously is helpful, but you also need your running back to be willing to hit top speed when the opportunity arises.
You very rarely see him stretch a play all the way to the sideline even when a route develops. On this occasion, he could beat the covering defender to the sideline and finish the play near the first down line, but he again prematurely cuts back so the defender gets a full shoulder tackle to his body.
There's no question that Robinson can be a very good NFL running back and a valuable contributor in the passing game as well as with the ball in his hands.
It's just a question of where he's worth taking.
For his career and for the team that drafts him, it's probably best that he lands at the end of the first round rather than at the top of the first round.
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