Carolina Panthers 2024 Tracking Thread

[Raskolnikov]

Everyone keeps talking about how the Panthers had a top 10 defense last year but I can't find any stats to back that up. In every major defensive team stat from points given up, yards given up, time of possession they are at or below the league average. If you're into DVOA rankings, the Panthers defense finished 25th. I'm not saying they have a bad defense but I don't see anything to back up the claim they were a top 10 defense. Throw in the fact their 6 division games were against below average offenses.

I would look at their second half, who they were when they finished.

It's the same for our defense only opposite extremes.

 

[KittiesKorner]

I heard from a Star Wars enthusiast that we were really good at run protection early last season

 

[Montucky]

What you're really mad about is the Bears put a little focus on offense for once. Even though that's been a comparatively small amount of their focus.

We've tried your way a long time. It won't matter if you have Brady or Mahomes. If you don't protect the QB and give them weapons they aren't going to be Brady or Mahomes. They won't even be Denver Cutler. They will be Chicago Cutler.
No team with who you think of as having a great QB has ever ignored the offense like you think a great QB allows you to do. That just doesn't happen.

Your dream of what the Bears should be never existed. Champion Papa Bear didn't ignore offense. '86 didn't ignore offense. What you desire is the loser Bears who's only competition is the Browns to see who is the worst team in the NFL and we've been winning that lately.

I don't know if Fields will be great but I do know if you aren't willing to have an offense don't bother trying to have a QB. A bad QB will do a lot better with good protection and good targets than a great QB will do with no protection or targets.

I am just looking at what has been successful in the past. That's it.

 

[HeHateMe]

I heard from a Star Wars enthusiast that we were really good at run protection early last season

ya run pro was good

 

[Moses Moreno]

I would look at their second half, who they were when they finished.

It's the same for our defense only opposite extremes.

They dominated time of possession through the running game in the second half of the season when they were successful.

Panthers Time Of Possession By Game This Season | StatMuse

The Carolina Panthers had a time of possession of 28:36 against the Buccaneers on January 7.

www.statmuse.com

They have talent on the defensive side of the ball but changing schemes is never seamless and Miles Sanders isn't a bellcow RB who can be the true RB1 for 17 games. They're similar to the 2021 Bears imo and they gave the Giants a top 10 pick.

 

[Montucky]

They dominated time of possession through the running game in the second half of the season when they were successful.

Panthers Time Of Possession By Game This Season | StatMuse

The Carolina Panthers had a time of possession of 28:36 against the Buccaneers on January 7.

www.statmuse.com

They have talent on the defensive side of the ball but changing schemes is never seamless and Miles Sanders isn't a bellcow RB who can be the true RB1 for 17 games. They're similar to the 2021 Bears imo and they gave the Giants a top 10 pick.

I think its fair to say their run game might take a step back due to Miles Sanders perhaps being a product of his surroundings in Philadelphia and not finding the same groove in Carolina. I think its also fair to expect their offensive line to be significantly better if Ikem Ekwonu takes a step in his development (not a given, but a reasonable assumption).

I don't know about his durability, but Chuba Hubbard behind an elite offensive line can probably pair with Sanders to recreate D'Onta Freeman. The bar here really isn't high, especially with a line as good as Carolina's.

 

[Chicagosports89]

They dominated time of possession through the running game in the second half of the season when they were successful.

Panthers Time Of Possession By Game This Season | StatMuse

The Carolina Panthers had a time of possession of 28:36 against the Buccaneers on January 7.

www.statmuse.com

They have talent on the defensive side of the ball but changing schemes is never seamless and Miles Sanders isn't a bellcow RB who can be the true RB1 for 17 games. They're similar to the 2021 Bears imo and they gave the Giants a top 10 pick.

I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Carolina is likely going to be in the 10-20 range drafting

 

[Moses Moreno]

I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Carolina is likely going to be in the 10-20 range drafting

2022
1 -Jags (TLaw)
4 - Jets (Wilson)
7 - Bears (Fields)

2021
5 - Cincy (Burrow)
13 - Chargers (Jherbo)
18 - Miami (Tua)

2020
4 - Giants (Jones)
8 - Cards (Kyler)

2019
1 - Cards (Rosen)
3 - Jets (Darnold)
9 - Buffalo (Allen)
17 - Cleveland? (They were 7-8-1 and traded the pick, no idea where they ended up)

2018
8 - Bears (Mitch)
Dunno where Houston drafted, Watson was a stud from the jump in part because of Hopkins

2017
5 - Rams ( Goff)
12 - Eagles (Wentz)

2016
1 - Tennessee (Mariota)
11 - Tampa (Winston)

2015
3 - Jags (Bortles)

I can't find a single team since 2012 where Luck elevated a bad team into contention as a rookie. The Bears were 19th and picked 7, the Rams were 15 in the year they picked Goff and picked 5. Rookie QBs with bad weapons lose often, it's just how it goes.

 

[Montucky]

2022
1 -Jags (TLaw)
4 - Jets (Wilson)
7 - Bears (Fields)

2021
5 - Cincy (Burrow)
13 - Chargers (Jherbo)
18 - Miami (Tua)

2020
4 - Giants (Jones)
8 - Cards (Kyler)

2019
1 - Cards (Rosen)
3 - Jets (Darnold)
9 - Buffalo (Allen)
17 - Cleveland? (They were 7-8-1 and traded the pick, no idea where they ended up)

2018
8 - Bears (Mitch)
Dunno where Houston drafted, Watson was a stud from the jump in part because of Hopkins

2017
5 - Rams ( Goff)
12 - Eagles (Wentz)

2016
1 - Tennessee (Mariota)
11 - Tampa (Winston)

2015
3 - Jags (Bortles)

I can't find a single team since 2012 where Luck elevated a bad team into contention as a rookie. The Bears were 19th and picked 7, the Rams were 15 in the year they picked Goff and picked 5. Rookie QBs with bad weapons lose often, it's just how it goes.

Except for Kenny Pickett last year with the Steelers and Mac Jones the year before that with the Patriots. At this rate it happens every year. Are you trying to say the 2021 Patriots had good weapons?

Who am I kidding, the odds you respond to my post are near zero. You run any time the facts come out.

 

[KittiesKorner]

Mac Jones is a good pick?

 

[Chicagosports89]

2022
1 -Jags (TLaw)
4 - Jets (Wilson)
7 - Bears (Fields)

2021
5 - Cincy (Burrow)
13 - Chargers (Jherbo)
18 - Miami (Tua)

2020
4 - Giants (Jones)
8 - Cards (Kyler)

2019
1 - Cards (Rosen)
3 - Jets (Darnold)
9 - Buffalo (Allen)
17 - Cleveland? (They were 7-8-1 and traded the pick, no idea where they ended up)

2018
8 - Bears (Mitch)
Dunno where Houston drafted, Watson was a stud from the jump in part because of Hopkins

2017
5 - Rams ( Goff)
12 - Eagles (Wentz)

2016
1 - Tennessee (Mariota)
11 - Tampa (Winston)

2015
3 - Jags (Bortles)

I can't find a single team since 2012 where Luck elevated a bad team into contention as a rookie. The Bears were 19th and picked 7, the Rams were 15 in the year they picked Goff and picked 5. Rookie QBs with bad weapons lose often, it's just how it goes.

I'm not going to go through each case, but I'd guess most of those teams didn't have good coaching staffs, a strong OL, and a solid defense. Bryce Young doesn't need to elevate the team, he just needs to be okay and they are probably a 7 win team if he's decent. I hope he's terrible and they win 3 games but I'm not holding my breath. I think Dalton could win 7-8 games if he plays.

 

[Moses Moreno]

Except for Kenny Pickett last year with the Steelers and Mac Jones the year before that with the Patriots. At this rate it happens every year. Are you trying to say the 2021 Patriots had good weapons?

Who am I kidding, the odds you respond to my post are near zero. You run any time the facts come out.

They had the best coach of all time, went from 7-9 (with a decent bit of players sitting out due to COVID) to 10-7, Steelers went from 9-7-1 to 9-8.

Those teams weren't clear bottom feeders like the Panthers have been. They've averaged 6 wins since 2018.

I ignore you because you're pretty clearly purposely disingenuous with your arguments in order to stir up arguments. There's an element of fandom that roots for the best possible outcome that people find fun - you seem to just enjoy being the contrarian to that. The Panthers have sucked for a minute, rookie QBs have historically struggled to elevate bad teams as rookies and the Bears stand to benefit from those things holding true and I personally will root for that little motherfucker to struggle like hell because I want Marvin Harrison Jr to be a Bear from this pick.

 

[Chicagosports89]

They had the best coach of all time, went from 7-9 (with a decent bit of players sitting out due to COVID) to 10-7, Steelers went from 9-7-1 to 9-8.

Those teams weren't clear bottom feeders like the Panthers have been. They've averaged 6 wins since 2018.

I ignore you because you're pretty clearly purposely disingenuous with your arguments in order to stir up arguments. There's an element of fandom that roots for the best possible outcome that people find fun - you seem to just enjoy being the contrarian to that. The Panthers have sucked for a minute, rookie QBs have historically struggled to elevate bad teams as rookies and the Bears stand to benefit from those things holding true and I personally will root for that little motherfucker to struggle like hell because I want Marvin Harrison Jr to be a Bear from this pick.

I'll root for him to struggle because I want Olu Fashanu and Darnell Wright to be our OTs the next decade.

 

[maxhatter]

Except for Kenny Pickett last year with the Steelers and Mac Jones the year before that with the Patriots. At this rate it happens every year. Are you trying to say the 2021 Patriots had good weapons?

Who am I kidding, the odds you respond to my post are near zero. You run any time the facts come out.

Except for the fact that Pittsburgh didn't improve from 2021 (9-7-1) to 2022 (9-8) with Pickett and their draft position went from 20 to 17 respectively. New England is the only outlier I can find in the last few years. However, when looking at the top QBs taken in the draft, they're generally going to bad teams and Carolina is a bad team. Their record over the past 5 years is 29 - 53 and their average win total is 5.75. Often, top QBs are going to teams with a new or relatively new coaching staff, which is what we see in Carolina. I think everything points to Carolina's win total falling near the mean, and their draft position will be relatively unchanged from last year.

 

[Nelly]

Except for Kenny Pickett last year with the Steelers and Mac Jones the year before that with the Patriots. At this rate it happens every year. Are you trying to say the 2021 Patriots had good weapons?

Who am I kidding, the odds you respond to my post are near zero. You run any time the facts come out.

Both those teams were picking in the latter half of the first. He's more specifically addressing high draft picks, because the teams making those picks were bad enough to get those high picks. Jones and Pickett went to pretty decent/good teams so it's not a surprise they were ~.500 teams with those guys starting some games. Young is going to a team that was bad enough to secure the 9th overall pick and lost their best offensive skill player in order to secure that first overall pick. They're in a much more similar position to the example teams than the Steelers/Pats you're referencing here.

 

[Nelly]

Adding...

People look at what talent a given team has already. Drafting a QB high is almost always drafting for tomorrow, not for right now, since it's really tough for QB to come in right away and perform at a high level on a bad/not very good team. Look at other bad teams drafting around there and they're getting blue-chip players at other positions that came come in and make an impact right away. Darnell Wright, Paris Johnson, Devon Witherspoon, Jalen Carter, Bijan Robinson, Tyree Wilson, Will Anderson, Peter Skoronski, Jahmyr Gibbs, etc... they're all going to help a team get better right away, thus putting that team that picked the QB behind the 8-ball a little bit as far as immediate roster upgrades go.

Looking at their division, they definitely didn't get immediately better via the #1 pick like the Falcons did with Robinson. They didn't get significantly better via FA by replacing Foreman and Moore with Sanders, Thielen and Chark like the Saints did by getting a pretty decent QB in Carr. TB got worse via losing Brady but at least grabbed Kancey who figures to make an impact right away.

 

[Montucky]

The argument seems to oscillate between "they might have a good roster in a bad division but they can't win with a rookie quarterback" to "it doesn't matter what Bryce Young does since they have such a bad roster" depending on whats convienient to explaining how they are headed to a five win (or whatever) season.

Here's what I know: Derrick Brown and Brian Burns are one of the better pass rushing pairings in the league and they are average with the potential to be quite good at cornerback. I'm not sure they are quite elite at offensive tackle right this instant, but if they hit on Ikem Ekwonu and he plays up to his draft position and Taylor Moton doesn't fall off a cliff they probably have one of the three, if not the overall, best bookend tackles in the NFL. They are pretty good on the interior line too.

They aren't perfect. There are some weaknesses at wide receiver especially. But this team is no worse than last years Steelers or the year before's Patriots. In fact it is signficantly better at the positions which really matter. Frank Reich might not be Mike Tomlin or Bill Belichick, but he did an overall admirable job in Indianapolis considering the hand he was dealt.

I'm not saying the Panthers win the Super Bowl. I am saying they are pretty clear favorites in a bad division and probably rack up ten-ish wins just because they are among the NFL's best teams at both protecting and attacking the quarterback.

 

[Nelly]

Just some quick stats. Carolina was 7-10 . They weren't a good team, and that was in a shitty division. The division winner was 8-9.

Pop quiz: the Bears or the Panthers had more yards of offense in 2022? Answer: the Bears. The Panthers were 29th in total offense, Bears were 28th. The Bears were better in yards per play as well. We scored more offensive touchdowns. Everyone here universally recognizes that we needed big upgrades on offense. How exactly are the Panthers supposed to be good offensively? What have they done to significantly improve the roster right away assuming Young has the usual rookie QB growing pains? Andy Dalton? Is Sanders a big upgrade at RB? Is Mingo/Thielen/Chark enough to make up for the loss of D.J. Moore? Hayden Hurst?

Defensively, the Panthers were 22nd in yardage defense, 23rd against the pass and 18th against the run. They allowed only 400 less yards on the year than our shitty defense. They were 27th in takeaways. 15th in yards per play. 25th in sacks. This is theortically with the help of that shitty division as well. So how exactly do the Panthers have a good defense? What big additions did they make there this offseason exactly? Von Bell and Shy Tuttle? They're also switching to a 3-4 which is an adjustment.

 

[Moses Moreno]

I'm not saying the Panthers win the Super Bowl. I am saying they are pretty clear favorites in a bad division and probably rack up ten-ish wins just because they are among the NFL's best teams at both protecting and attacking the quarterback.

And I'm saying that the betting public strongly disagrees with you - the odds for the NFC South right now are:
Saints +135
Falcons +230
Panthers +370
Bucs +550

Carolina had a below average adjusted sack rate last year on offense and were 6th worst at adjusted sack rate last year on defense according to Football Outsiders. Not really elite at attacking or protecting the QB at all, but go ahead - put some money down on the Panthers winning the division if you're so confident but quit making up shit and pretending it's fact.

They're not going to be the worst team in the NFL but there's a super high probability that they'll be anywhere from the 5th to 12th worst team.

 

[maxhatter]

The argument seems to oscillate between "they might have a good roster in a bad division but they can't win with a rookie quarterback" to "it doesn't matter what Bryce Young does since they have such a bad roster" depending on whats convienient to explaining how they are headed to a five win (or whatever) season.

Here's what I know: Derrick Brown and Brian Burns are one of the better pass rushing pairings in the league and they are average with the potential to be quite good at cornerback. I'm not sure they are quite elite at offensive tackle right this instant, but if they hit on Ikem Ekwonu and he plays up to his draft position and Taylor Moton doesn't fall off a cliff they probably have one of the three, if not the overall, best bookend tackles in the NFL. They are pretty good on the interior line too.

They aren't perfect. There are some weaknesses at wide receiver especially. But this team is no worse than last years Steelers or the year before's Patriots. In fact it is signficantly better at the positions which really matter. Frank Reich might not be Mike Tomlin or Bill Belichick, but he did an overall admirable job in Indianapolis considering the hand he was dealt.

I'm not saying the Panthers win the Super Bowl. I am saying they are pretty clear favorites in a bad division and probably rack up ten-ish wins just because they are among the NFL's best teams at both protecting and attacking the quarterback.

Why would you consider them as one of the best pass-rushing teams when the finished 25th in sack total? Just making shit up again?