Chris Godwin probably getting franchise tag

[Montucky]

"They won’t let Godwin out of the building, whether that’s playing under a new contract or the franchise tag, which would cost them approximately $16.5 million. Sources close to the situation believe that’s where things are headed, and Godwin indicated he’d be OK playing under the tag, although the plan is to keep him in Tampa Bay long-term."

Report: Buccaneers, Godwin Trending Towards Franchise Tag

According to a report, Tampa Bay and wide receiver Chris Godwin appear to be heading toward the franchise tag.

www.si.com

Seems pretty definitive. The big component to this story is that Godwin has stated that he's willing to play on the franchise tag, so once this tag happens he's officially off the market. As far as wide receivers who are readily available this off-season the only guy who really could've worth more than Allen Robinson II was Chris Godwin, and now he's off the market.

Good news for the Bears if their goal is trade Robinson II.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

This definitely needed its own thread. I had so much anxiety building up over Chris Godwin, but you just calmed me down. Thank you!

 

[Montucky]

It actually affects the Bears quite a bit if the reports that the franchise tag will be placed on Allen Robinson II with the intention of trading him are true.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

It actually affects the Bears quite a bit if the reports that the franchise tag will be placed on Allen Robinson II with the intention of trading him are true.

No it doesn’t.

 

[Montucky]

No it doesn’t.

 

[Pegger]

Guys, the tag and trade is going to be very difficult to pull off for the following reasons:

1. Teams will be pressed against the cap and whomever trades for him needs the $16.5M available in cap room to bring him in the door. It's early so teams cap amounts will go both ways with cuts, restructuring and extending players, but that's only like 12 teams who are potential partners. After that you are hoping WR is their #1 offseason item to work on, which is long odds.
2. Pace - Seriously, you are asking a lot for a GM to pull that sort of magic off. Do you think Pace is the guy?
3. WR FA Market - Sure Godwin might be off the market, but the pool of available WRs is really deep compared to a normal offseason.
4. WR Draft Prospects - Some analysts have said this group of WRs is actually better than last years, which was very talented at the position.
5. The tag and trade rarely is a lucrative as you think. Matt Cassel was the last tag and trade I can remember. That was for a premium position and they got a 2nd. Well if the Bears can only get a 3rd or worse why not just take the compensatory pick, which would probably be a 2022 3rd?

I'd add, getting stuck with a franchised Allen Robinson could set this team back. If you roll out Smith/Foles at QB what does it matter who the WRs are? I'd almost prefer the team go after a younger, cheaper FA, draft someone and give Mooney opportunities to be a #1.

You Bears fans have to think think back to Alshon. Tagging the player didn't work. If anything that shows you can let your guy walk and end up with an upgrade (being ARob). I say with all the FA WRs and the draft being deep in the position spend less cap space and get younger there. Let ARob walk and start planning on the 3rd round comp pick.

 

[Clint Eastwood]

Guys, the tag and trade is going to be very difficult to pull off for the following reasons:

1. Teams will be pressed against the cap and whomever trades for him needs the $16.5M available in cap room to bring him in the door. It's early so teams cap amounts will go both ways with cuts, restructuring and extending players, but that's only like 12 teams who are potential partners. After that you are hoping WR is their #1 offseason item to work on, which is long odds.
2. Pace - Seriously, you are asking a lot for a GM to pull that sort of magic off. Do you think Pace is the guy?
3. WR FA Market - Sure Godwin might be off the market, but the pool of available WRs is really deep compared to a normal offseason.
4. WR Draft Prospects - Some analysts have said this group of WRs is actually better than last years, which was very talented at the position.
5. The tag and trade rarely is a lucrative as you think. Matt Cassel was the last tag and trade I can remember. That was for a premium position and they got a 2nd. Well if the Bears can only get a 3rd or worse why not just take the compensatory pick, which would probably be a 2022 3rd?

I'd add, getting stuck with a franchised Allen Robinson could set this team back. If you roll out Smith/Foles at QB what does it matter who the WRs are? I'd almost prefer the team go after a younger, cheaper FA, draft someone and give Mooney opportunities to be a #1.

You Bears fans have to think think back to Alshon. Tagging the player didn't work. If anything that shows you can let your guy walk and end up with an upgrade (being ARob). I say with all the FA WRs and the draft being deep in the position spend less cap space and get younger there. Let ARob walk and start planning on the 3rd round comp pick.

I agree with this unless we acquire Watson or Wilson somehow, then I would find a way to fit him into the teams cap structure. Although, it is possible that with Wilson in the fold, some solid free agent WR are willing to come here at a slight discount?

 

[mikeyk]

I like to consider myself pretty knowledgeable of memes.. But I have absolutely no idea what is going on in this one.

 

[iueyedoc]

Guys, the tag and trade is going to be very difficult to pull off for the following reasons:

1. Teams will be pressed against the cap and whomever trades for him needs the $16.5M available in cap room to bring him in the door. It's early so teams cap amounts will go both ways with cuts, restructuring and extending players, but that's only like 12 teams who are potential partners. After that you are hoping WR is their #1 offseason item to work on, which is long odds.
2. Pace - Seriously, you are asking a lot for a GM to pull that sort of magic off. Do you think Pace is the guy?
3. WR FA Market - Sure Godwin might be off the market, but the pool of available WRs is really deep compared to a normal offseason.
4. WR Draft Prospects - Some analysts have said this group of WRs is actually better than last years, which was very talented at the position.
5. The tag and trade rarely is a lucrative as you think. Matt Cassel was the last tag and trade I can remember. That was for a premium position and they got a 2nd. Well if the Bears can only get a 3rd or worse why not just take the compensatory pick, which would probably be a 2022 3rd?

I'd add, getting stuck with a franchised Allen Robinson could set this team back. If you roll out Smith/Foles at QB what does it matter who the WRs are? I'd almost prefer the team go after a younger, cheaper FA, draft someone and give Mooney opportunities to be a #1.

You Bears fans have to think think back to Alshon. Tagging the player didn't work. If anything that shows you can let your guy walk and end up with an upgrade (being ARob). I say with all the FA WRs and the draft being deep in the position spend less cap space and get younger there. Let ARob walk and start planning on the 3rd round comp pick.

A few things:

#1 is really not true, any team trading for him will be doing so with a long term contract already negotiated.

#5 is a bit outdated.

Below is a chart detailing the more recent franchise player trades and the last ones before these types of transactions started increasing.

Player	Position	Year	Old Team	New Team	Compensation
Frank Clark	DE	2019	Seahawks	Chiefs	2019 1st rd pick (29th) & 2020 2nd rd pick; Swap of 2019 3rd rd picks
Jadeveon Clowney	DE	2019	Texans	Seahawks	2020 3rd rd pick, OLB Jacob Martin & OLB Barkevious Mingo
Dee Ford	DE	2019	Chiefs	49ers	2020 2nd rd pick
Jarvis Landry	WR	2018	Dolphins	Browns	2018 4th rd pick & 2019 7th rd pick
Matt Cassel	QB	2009	Patriots	Chiefs	2009 2nd rd pick; Chiefs also get LB Mike Vrabel
Jared Allen	DE	2008	Chiefs	Vikings	2008 1st rd pick (15th) & Two 2008 3rd rd picks; Swap of 2008 6th rd pick
Corey Williams	DT	2008	Packers	Browns	2008 2nd rd pick

All of the players besides Jadeveon Clowney signed long term deals with the acquiring team at some point during the offseason of the trade. In fact, most of the transactions were a "tag and trade" where a new contract was negotiated in conjunction with the player acquisition.


Plus I would take a traded 3rd over a comp 3rd every day for several reasons, maybe even a traded 4th over a comp 3rd.

1) It is a year earlier, which if you buy the trade logic is worth a round.
2) You don't have to rely on some secretive formula to award the proper compensation.
3) It is by nature better by at least 1 spot and maybe up to 32-35 spots based on where that 3rd rd comp would lay among 3rd rd comps and where the team traded finished last season
4) No risk of losing the comp pick by signing a similar level FA.

 

[HeHateMe]

I like to consider myself pretty knowledgeable of memes.. But I have absolutely no idea what is going on in this one.

It's not really a "meme' but rather, a self portrait.

 

[Pegger]

I agree with this unless we acquire Watson or Wilson somehow, then I would find a way to fit him into the teams cap structure. Although, it is possible that with Wilson in the fold, some solid free agent WR are willing to come here at a slight discount?

Is it possible to have Watson/Wilson and Robinson? Sure. Is is plausible? Probably not.

The Bears don't have much cap space (currently right around $0, which is currently 21st of the 32 teams in the league). For them to take on a top 5 QB contract ($30M/season) AND then sign Robinson will be hard. For the Robinson piece if you are retaining him I think it's one of two options:

1. Franchise Tag him - Cap charge this year will be ~$16.5M
2. Long term deal - Thinking it can have a smaller year one number, but he'll be looking for an Amari Cooper type deal, which was $20M/season.

If you make a move for Wilson/Watson I doubt there's money for a top tier WR.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

Is that a bong you can plug in?

 

[Pegger]

A few things:

#1 is really not true, any team trading for him will be doing so with a long term contract already negotiated.

#5 is a bit outdated.

Below is a chart detailing the more recent franchise player trades and the last ones before these types of transactions started increasing.

Player	Position	Year	Old Team	New Team	Compensation
Frank Clark	DE	2019	Seahawks	Chiefs	2019 1st rd pick (29th) & 2020 2nd rd pick; Swap of 2019 3rd rd picks
Jadeveon Clowney	DE	2019	Texans	Seahawks	2020 3rd rd pick, OLB Jacob Martin & OLB Barkevious Mingo
Dee Ford	DE	2019	Chiefs	49ers	2020 2nd rd pick
Jarvis Landry	WR	2018	Dolphins	Browns	2018 4th rd pick & 2019 7th rd pick
Matt Cassel	QB	2009	Patriots	Chiefs	2009 2nd rd pick; Chiefs also get LB Mike Vrabel
Jared Allen	DE	2008	Chiefs	Vikings	2008 1st rd pick (15th) & Two 2008 3rd rd picks; Swap of 2008 6th rd pick
Corey Williams	DT	2008	Packers	Browns	2008 2nd rd pick

All of the players besides Jadeveon Clowney signed long term deals with the acquiring team at some point during the offseason of the trade. In fact, most of the transactions were a "tag and trade" where a new contract was negotiated in conjunction with the player acquisition.


Plus I would take a traded 3rd over a comp 3rd every day for several reasons, maybe even a traded 4th over a comp 3rd.

1) It is a year earlier, which if you buy the trade logic is worth a round.
2) You don't have to rely on some secretive formula to award the proper compensation.
3) It is by nature better by at least 1 spot and maybe up to 32-35 spots based on where that 3rd rd comp would lay among 3rd rd comps and where the team traded finished last season
4) No risk of losing the comp pick by signing a similar level FA.

Great info provided and the updated tag and trade chart is relevant. One item of significant relevance is since 2008 (13 seasons) there have been 7 tag and trade deals. That's pretty much 0.5/season, which suggests they aren't that common despite fan's always bringing up how easy it is to perform.

RE: Team would already have negotiated the deal - This is true, but it still requires teams with cap space to dance. In short, he can't be traded to a team like my Eagles. Essentially it's the same bidding war that would have happened in free agency, but those teams also have to give up draft capital to make the deal work. It's just less bidders at the table.

RE: traded 3rd > comp 3rd - I do agree with you and your reasons are sound. The item that I think you are ignoring is the risk associated with franchise tagging him. The tag is not the team leverage creator it used to be. Now there's definite risk involved. The worst case scenario is they tag him, bids are lower then the Bears would like and you have a disgruntled player being forced to play under the tag. Remember, Robinson tore his ACL right before free agency with the Jags and last year was a good soldier, but he'll be 28 and has to know playing 16 games under the tag directly risks what his last big pay day will look like. If I was his agent I'd tell him to sign the tag, play 6 games, then sit out the rest, which would totally fuck over the Bears, but it would be justified because the franchise tag is looked at as them fucking him over.


To be clear, I'm saying a tag and trade is unlikely to happen. I completely think it makes sense for the Bears to explore the option, but I wouldn't expect it for all the reasons I mentioned. Not only is it rare but the lower cap + deep FA WR market + deep WR Prospect pool makes it less likely to happen.

 

[Pegger]

Is that a bong you can plug in?

And if so, where someone would find it?

 

[Montucky]

Guys, the tag and trade is going to be very difficult to pull off for the following reasons:

1. Teams will be pressed against the cap and whomever trades for him needs the $16.5M available in cap room to bring him in the door. It's early so teams cap amounts will go both ways with cuts, restructuring and extending players, but that's only like 12 teams who are potential partners. After that you are hoping WR is their #1 offseason item to work on, which is long odds
2. Pace - Seriously, you are asking a lot for a GM to pull that sort of magic off. Do you think Pace is the guy?
3. WR FA Market - Sure Godwin might be off the market, but the pool of available WRs is really deep compared to a normal offseason.
4. WR Draft Prospects - Some analysts have said this group of WRs is actually better than last years, which was very talented at the position.
5. The tag and trade rarely is a lucrative as you think. Matt Cassel was the last tag and trade I can remember. That was for a premium position and they got a 2nd. Well if the Bears can only get a 3rd or worse why not just take the compensatory pick, which would probably be a 2022 3rd?

I'd add, getting stuck with a franchised Allen Robinson could set this team back. If you roll out Smith/Foles at QB what does it matter who the WRs are? I'd almost prefer the team go after a younger, cheaper FA, draft someone and give Mooney opportunities to be a #1.

You Bears fans have to think think back to Alshon. Tagging the player didn't work. If anything that shows you can let your guy walk and end up with an upgrade (being ARob). I say with all the FA WRs and the draft being deep in the position spend less cap space and get younger there. Let ARob walk and start planning on the 3rd round comp pick.

1. Of the three teams I see as best fits for Allen Robinson II all have enough cap room to fit him in right now today on the franchise tag. Though presumably the trade would hinge on an immediate long-term deal that would be negotiated during before the trade is consummated. Think like the Khalil Mack deal.
2. Sure, why not. Ryan Pace has overcome a disastrous quarterback pick and a bad coach to still make the playoffs twice. Most teams with shitty coaches or shitty quarterbacks finish well below five-hundred. The Bears have both and have found a way into the dance twice in three years.
3. Chris Godwin was the only one that had an argument for being better (or more valuable, perhaps) than Allen Robinson II though. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton and Will Fuller V all have major question marks. Be that attitude, injury, age, production...whatever none of them can be reasonably expected to perform like number ones. Kenny Golladay can but he's not escaped a single season of his career healthy. Teams looking for a sure thing at wide receiver have basically one choice, at least as far as the names we know that are available.
4. This only really affects the Dolphins. The Jets are going to draft a quarterback and Ravens pick too late to reliably expect a starting caliber wide receiver to be there. And the Dolphins might find themselves unable to say no to drafting an offensive tackle at third overall. We can't really know for certain.
5. Yannick Ngakoue literally just last season. Second and a fifth, and Ngakoue really tanked his own value by arguing with the owners son on Twitter if I remember correctly.

 

[Montucky]

Great info provided and the updated tag and trade chart is relevant. One item of significant relevance is since 2008 (13 seasons) there have been 7 tag and trade deals. That's pretty much 0.5/season, which suggests they aren't that common despite fan's always bringing up how easy it is to perform.

They have gotten way more common over the last few years though. One in 2018, then three in 2019 and then one last year. These days the trend is at least one of these deals every off-season, what happened ten years ago does not seem very relevant when it comes to this tactic anymore.

 

[Pegger]

Let's change the question a bit. I know we can all create reasons for something to happen and therefore start thinking it might happen, but does anyone really think a tag-and-trade will happen?

If you do maybe assign a probability percentage of that happening.

Personally I'd say this has a 2% chance of happening. Sure there's a chance, but not worth getting excited about.

 

[Montucky]

Let's change the question a bit. I know we can all create reasons for something to happen and therefore start thinking it might happen, but does anyone really think a tag-and-trade will happen?

If you do maybe assign a probability percentage of that happening.

Personally I'd say this has a 2% chance of happening. Sure there's a chance, but not worth getting excited about.

Right, but you also thought Matt Cassell was the last guy to get the tag-and-trade when it reality five guys have had it the last three off-seasons. So I dont know, your appraisal seems a little uninformed and perhaps very guilty of creating reasons it won't happen instead of taking a more realistic view.

I would say right now its fifty-fifty. I don't think there is any way Allen Robinson II plays this season on the franchise tag without holding out. It is not outside the realm he makes a major stink on social media. I also do not sense the Bears are particularly motivated to extend him. If he gets tagged I'm pretty sure he's getting dealt, but I'm not entirely sure he's getting tagged. Fifty-fifty is where I settle when there are so many uncertainties. Its certainly higher than two percent.

 

[Pegger]

Right, but you also thought Matt Cassell was the last guy to get the tag-and-trade when it reality five guys have had it the last three off-seasons. So I dont know, your appraisal seems a little uninformed and perhaps very guilty of creating reasons it won't happen instead of taking a more realistic view.

I would say right now its fifty-fifty. I don't think there is any way Allen Robinson II plays this season on the franchise tag without holding out. It is not outside the realm he makes a major stink on social media. I also do not sense the Bears are particularly motivated to extend him. If he gets tagged I'm pretty sure he's getting dealt, but I'm not entirely sure he's getting tagged. Fifty-fifty is where I settle when there are so many uncertainties. Its certainly higher than two percent.

I don't think it's a high probability transaction. It feels like one of those moves that go in someone's 'mock offseason' where everyone nods and says 'that's smart' without thinking how improbable it really is.

On paper as a Bears fan it makes perfect sense. The Bears essentially throw the tag on Robinson just so they can get something for him. It seems like such an obvious value creating solution that every team should do it if they have a valued pending FA and are not using the tag, right?

So, then why doesn't it happen more? The logic of 'why' the tag-and-trade should happen doesn't map over to teams actually doing it.

Let's flip the tables. Look at any pending FA. Let's say it's a premium position the Bears need like QB, so for this year that's probably Dak Prescott. Should Pace trade for Dak in a tag-and-trade? Granted that would mean making him one of the highest paid QBs AND giving up draft picks to do so. BTW, from the Cowboys side the tag-and-trade is a total no-brainer. They create huge value from a guy who currently does not have have any long term commitments to the team.

You guys need OL and Brandon Scherff is a free agent. Why not get Washington to tag, him so you can give up your 2nd rounder and make him one of the highest paid guards in the league?

I have yet to see someone make a compelling case why a WR needy team would choose making Robinson one of the highest paid WRs AND give up draft capital over other FA WRs or drafting someone. At this time you are only looking at things from the Bears point of view where they get picks for a player who's currently not under contract.

 

[iueyedoc]

Let's change the question a bit. I know we can all create reasons for something to happen and therefore start thinking it might happen, but does anyone really think a tag-and-trade will happen?

If you do maybe assign a probability percentage of that happening.

Personally I'd say this has a 2% chance of happening. Sure there's a chance, but not worth getting excited about.

I would say AR is similar or of greater value as Jarvis Landry at the time of his tag and trade, so if CHI could get a early 4th +, I could see it happening from the CHI stand point. I think a 3rd would be a no brainer, but not as likely.

If they tag him and he plays for the$16M that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. And, no way I see him giving up $10M to sit after 6 games.