Comp picks thread

Visionman

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This is why we were saying don’t worry about the comp picks for now. We aren’t getting much, if anything, this year. And next offseason we are likely to spend far more than we lose in FA, so nothing then either.

Realistically, we’re looking 3 years out for when comp picks may become something to be excited about for this team.
 

PeppersSweater

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I’ve always wondered why one-year deals are so popular; potential comp picks?
 

RiDLer80

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Y'all in here talking about comp picks like this was a good football team last year. Bad teams don't get comp picks. This team has too many holes to worry about comp picks. We have a lot of needs to fill that can't all be solved by the draft.

When one of your top guys leaving is a return specialist that should tell you about our comp pick chances.

Our other two big name free agents are an average at best guard and a WR, who somehow leaves Chicago with less value than when signed out of Jacksonville fresh off an ACL tear.
 

dennehy

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Arob signing for 15 AAV could get us a 3/4?
Canceled by Ogunjobi.

Realistically there is a pretty small chance the Bears get a comp pick this, and if they do it's probably a 6th.
 

Starion

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Canceled by Ogunjobi.

Realistically there is a pretty small chance the Bears get a comp pick this, and if they do it's probably a 6th.

Not anymore!! Ogun failed his physical. Deal dead.

I also read that ARob at $15mil/yr = 4th round comp, while $15.5 = 3rd Rd pick!??? Which is it?

Will signing their backup plan from IND at DE hurt this?
 

pdxbearsfan

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I don’t think any team will give up much for Foles and that contract. He’s a solid back up and I’m okay if he sticks around another season. It’s better than cutting him and having nothing behind Fields unless you are shooting for a number one overall draft pick. If that’s the case then I trade Quinn for a 2nd and a 4th and take some of the money on since the bears already have so much dead cap space this season.

1st round: No picks
2nd round: 3 picks
3rd round: 1 pick
4th round: 2 picks
5th round: 2 picks
6th round: 1 pick
7th round: No picks

2023 draft 8-10 draft picks due to compensatory picks and trades
Foles will become more tradeable soon as a salary guarantee is payable eminently I think about $4MM or so, makes him cheaper this year for new team.
 

JP Hochbaum

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So how does the cancelling out part work?
Bears Signings (AAV)
Lucas Patrick ($4): 6th round
Nick Morrow ($2.5): 7th round or nothing
Byron Pringle ($4): 6th rounder
Al-quadin Muhammed ($5): 6th rounder


Bears who sign elsewhere
James Daniels ($8.83): 5th round
Jakeem Grant ($4.6)*Edit: Grant doesn't count because he shortened his contract*
Bilal Nichols ($5.5): 6th rounder
AROB ($15.5): 4th rounder

It seems like we get a 4th rounder out of this for sure, and maybe a 5th.
 

dennehy

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So how does the cancelling out part work?
Bears Signings (AAV)
Lucas Patrick ($4): 6th round
Nick Morrow ($2.5): 7th round or nothing
Byron Pringle ($4): 6th rounder
Al-quadin Muhammed ($5): 6th rounder


Bears who sign elsewhere
James Daniels ($8.83): 5th round
Jakeem Grant ($4.6)*Edit: Grant doesn't count because he shortened his contract*
Bilal Nichols ($5.5): 6th rounder
AROB ($15.5): 4th rounder

It seems like we get a 4th rounder out of this for sure, and maybe a 5th.
Justin Jones also signed with the Bears, AAV $6m: 6th rounder.

The Bears right now have more singed FAs (5) than lost FAs (3), so they aren't in line for a comp pick. That can change but I would still expect the Bears to not receive any 2023 comp picks because they will almost certainly sign at least one more and lose three more at most.
 

jonimus

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Can this be resurrected? Any chance we're net negative free agents now?
 

Hawkeye.

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Lots of talk about comp picks this year, and the Bears are likely to lose several higher priced free agents. So I thought I would make a thread for it.

Overall, teams get comp picks for losing more free agents priced over a certain amount (in average annual salary) than they sign in a given offseason. So if that given amount is $2.5m, and the team signs 4 players over it and loses 6 players over it, they get 2 comp picks. Usually the total amount of comp picks is capped somewhere around 32 (one extra round in the draft or so, total).

The round of these picks is determined by the average annual salary as well. It works the same for gains and losses, so if you lose a 5th and gain a 5th it's a wash. If you gain a 4th and lose a 3rd, and the rest are 5th or lower, for example, the 4th cancels the 3rd. Last year, in a slightly depressed market due to covid, it looked like this:
3rd rounder: $16m+
4th rounder: $10.5m to $16m
5th rounder: $6.25m to $10.5m
6th rounder: $$3.3m to $6.25m
7th rounder: $2m to $3.3m

I expect it to be a bit higher for everything this year, with the bottom probably closer to $2.75m or so. But it won't be too different. With that I'll start with where the Bears are at currently and we can update, with average annual value and projected round value. One caveat is that player who were cut from their teams do not count against the formula, so for example were the Bears to sign JC Tretter, who was just released by Cleveland, he would not count against the formula. Same with Eddie Goldman on the other side.

Bears Signings (AAV)
Lucas Patrick ($4): 6th round
Nick Morrow ($2.5): 7th round or nothing
Byron Pringle ($4): 6th rounder
Al-quadin Muhammed ($5): 6th rounder


Bears who sign elsewhere
James Daniels ($8.83): 5th round
Jakeem Grant ($4.6)*Edit: Grant doesn't count because he shortened his contract*
Bilal Nichols ($5.5): 6th rounder
AROB ($15.5): 4th rounder
Is this up to date?
 

Starion

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Good question. Bumppity bump for an update please.
 

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